Analysts: Pakatan likely to do better in Johor

Yesterday, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim announced that Lim will be contesting in Gelang Patah parliamentary constituency in the 13th general election. DAP is also aiming to contest in 15 out of 26 seats in the state.

Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian said that the move to the South by Lim “and potentially other senior leaders” represents the confidence of the party in getting a majority of support, particulaly among the Chinese and younger electorate.

“This is characterised as a bold move as he leaves his safe seat in Ipoh Timur... seems to indicate the party is confident of making inroads. They expect a surge in the support of non-Malay voters in Johor as the state is only marginally Malay,” he told Astro Awani.

Asked if this confidence will translate into more votes, Ibrahim responded: “I think they will make some inroads in Johor, given the swing in places like Labis and Tenang in the last by-election, you notice a sizable majority of younger voters, particularly non-malays has swung in favour to opposition.”

He said that DAP’s objective is to capture this ‘swing’ mood by fielding senior people is who are best able to articulate the policies and intentions of the party.

“They now currently have one seat in Johor. potentially can win several more seats, given the composition of the electorate there. If they win another one, it is already a 100% increase.”

However, he admitted that such a prediction could change depending on various factors.

“(But) it remains to be seen, (especially) on the issues that they bring forward, the quality of the campaign they conduct and the response of BN and party in the respective area. So it is still a dynamic environment,” he said.

Ibrahim said that BN would need to “talk about their very strong development track record, and the transformation plan.”

He said that there was “no one doubts that BN has done a lot for the development. They have shown the ability to recognise the needs of the nation.”

He said that aside from the need to convince voters that the transformation plans has resulted in positive outcome, BN also has to address issues such as crime, cost of living and corruption.

While Universiti Science Malaysia’s political scientist Sivamurugan Pandian agreed that Pakatan would likely be able to get more seats, especially in Chinese dominated constituencies, it was still far from “overthrowing BN” in the state.

“Is Johor is prepared to accept them? I still see Johor as a stronghold for BN. I think they are seen as extremely overconfident this time around.”

Sivamurugan also said that voters may also question Lim’s movements, as he was previously contesting in Melaka, Selangor, Penang, and Perak.

“For him to move from Perak to Johor, back to the state where he was born, Batu Pahat, maybe he wants to end his career in Johor,” he said.

“For Lim, at 72, and in politics for almost 44 years, people may question whether there is no young leaders, or maybe whether he is moving to Johor because Perak DAP chairman Datuk Ngeh Koo Ham and secretary Nga Kor Ming is very strong in Perak.”

Sivamurugan said that Pakatan may be attempting to show Johor as a “new tsunami seat” following the opposition’s unrivalled performance in 2008.

Sivamurugan cautioned that if PKR and DAP is not able to settle the seat allocation issue between Johor PKR chairman Datuk Chua Jui Meng and Johor DAP chief Dr Boo Cheng Hau.

“If Lim doesn’t get full support of his own party, he might lose votes within DAP itself and it turns out to be protest votes.”

Sivamurugan said that what happens in Johor depends a lot on the fence sitters, and therefore it was important for politicians of both sides to address local issues, and other problems such as unemployment, lack of housing and proper transportation.

Meanwhile, analyst Khoo Kay Peng said that DAP’s move to Johor, where their “percentage of votes should definitely increase”, will make the Umno home state a important “battlefront”.

“Well I think it is a good move. If you look at the number of seats MCA is holding, seven out of 15 parliamentary seats are actually is in Johor.

“I think Johor is definitely a frontier seat that Pakatan must try to break and if they are not successful then the ambition to capture Putrajaya may not be realised,” said Khoo.

He said that this was a “necessary” move as they need to convince their supporters that the quest for Putrajaya is real.

Asked what would voters feel about Lim moving from state to state, Khoo said that “theoretically I don’t think it is wrong, as political parties have to go for power.”

“But for voters it is different. Politicians and non-politicians define politics differently. Voters might want to get to know their representatives.”

However, Khoo added that an member of parliament is theoretically focused on national policies and would not matter which seat he or she controls.

He said that in some other countries, a MP cannot stay in a seat for more than two terms.

On the challenges faced by both BN and Pakatan Rakyat, Khoo said: “A lot of money is being poured into Johor, people might not want to change status quo, because there is a lot of economic activities.

“It is also a state quite significant to UMNO as a party. UMNO is still the strongest political party in Malaysia. it holds the largest number of seats, it has probably has the best network. It is still a very underdog game for the Opposition”

Whereas for BN, Khoo said the ruling coalition would have to face with the “X factor” of new voters, returning overseas voters, predominantly Chinese.

Gelang Patah, comprises 54 percent Chinese voters, 34 percent Malay and 12 percent Indian. Incumbent MP and Johor Wanita MCA chief Tan Ah Eng retained the seat with a 8,851-vote majority in 2008.