ASEAN leaders get ready for annual summit beginning Friday, Myanmar crisis to take centre stage

The three day summit will be the first face-to-face ASEAN Summits to be held due COVID-19 pandemic over the past two years.

Although a host of global security and economy issues are expected to be discussed, Myanmar will take the centre stage at the Summits as leaders deliberate on the next course of actions to deal with the deepening crisis in the junta led nation.

Not only the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) peace plan had failed to bring positive results 18 months since it was agreed on by ASEAN leaders in Jakarta, Indonesia, Myanmar's junta chief senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Tatmadaw (armed forces) continue to defy ASEAN and want to deal with the crisis by their own terms.

After the military coup on Feb 1, 2021 that overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, there has been widespread unrest as civilians denounced the military rule while the junta tightened its grip on the country. It is reported that more than 1,000 people have been killed and many are in need of humanitarian assistance as the woes in the country deepens.

"It's unfortunate that the crisis has only deepened over the past few months. Despite some setbacks, Junta's grip over the nation has only tightened.

"Securing the support of both Russia and China has made Gen Min Aung Hlaing and his government more confident," Centre for ASEAN Regionalism Universiti Malaya (CARUM) Dr Rahul Mishra said.

He said the junta has also tried to secure the tacit support of some ASEAN countries though it might not always be reflected at the regional level.

Mishra said for now, ASEAN could still try to find a non-political mechanism to reach out to the common people in Myanmar who have become the biggest victims of the crisis and to address their concern related to livelihood, health, and essential requirements.

He said imposing any tougher punitive measures on the junta alone is unlikely to yield any substantive positive gain.

"This is primarily due to the fact that some leading countries of the region do not see the political crisis in Myanmar as an threat to regional stability," he said.

"I think ASEAN will carry on with its policy of boycotting Myanmar. That said, chances are that some leaders would press for the need to initiate a dialogue with the junta.

"This seems more likely in the East Asia Summit where the members come from diverse backgrounds and varied levels of relations with Myanmar," Mishra added.

However, Professor and director of Institute of Security and International Studies at the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, Thitinan Pongsudhirak said the futility of the 5PC so far does not mean it has to be abandoned.

He said 5PC's basis of offering an ASEAN modality to promote dialogue and humanitarian assistance remains sound.

"The challenge is to get the SAC (State Administration Council) to play ball. Instead, the SAC has been taking ASEAN for a ride, engaging with the grouping while undermining it at the same time," he told Bernama.

Thitinan also said the next step for ASEAN is to up the ante by engaging with the Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG) while further marginalising the junta government.

However, he said it may have to wait for this to happen under Indonesia's chairmanship next year.

"This new round of brinkmanship can involve an outright suspension of Myanmar's membership without expulsion. Either suspension or expulsion would be unprecedented and controversial but anything short of getting the SAC to reciprocate would relegate ASEAN to irrelevance," he said.

Meanwhile, a Bangkok-based non-governmental organisation, Fortify Rights said ASEAN member states should work with the wider international community and NUG to resolve the country's current internal conflict.

Its human rights advocacy specialist, Patrick Phongsathorn said the 10-member bloc must now act to implement a global arms embargo on the Myanmar junta as the current 5PC seem unable to prevent or respond to the junta's ongoing crimes against humanity.

"ASEAN should cease oil and gas payments that are being used by the junta to fund its reign of terror and sanction the sale of aviation fuel to the junta so that they can no longer bomb civilian populations," he told Bernama in an email interview.

Phongsathorn, who monitors the issue closely, said ASEAN now needs to get real about the criminal nature of the Myanmar junta as too many lives have already been lost.

The junta should also be excluded from all international forums, and humanitarian aid should be redirected from the junta to Myanmar community-based organisations, he said.

"ASEAN definitely needs to change in order to respond more effectively to future crises in the region, but serious questions remain as to whether the member states have the political will to make these changes," he said.

Phongsathorn don't have high hopes for the upcoming ASEAN Summit because all the signs point to ASEAN continuing to act at a glacial pace.

ASEAN foreign ministers and representatives agreed that deadlines would be put in place for the implementation of the 5PCs at the recent special meeting in Jakarta.

The junta is extremely unlikely to abide by such deadlines, leaving open the perplexing question of what will be the response from ASEAN then, he added.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi told press conference after the special meeting on Oct 27 that a dialogue among all stakeholders in Myanmar is important to discuss the country's future.

"The problem in Myanmar can only be solved by the people of Myanmar," she said, and "only then can ASEAN fulfill its duty as facilitator".

Retno highlighted that the meeting was conducted in an open atmosphere with sensitive issues were discussed, and stressing that "keeping problems under the carpet should no longer be an option in the ASEAN's working mechanism."

She said ministers also expressed "disappointment" and "frustration" over the recent escalation of violence in Myanmar and lack of significant implementation of the 5PCs.

Current ASEAN envoy Prak Sokhonn, who is also Cambodia's foreign minister said that he is doing whatever it takes to keep all parties concerned in Myanmar remain engaged, including the country's shadow National Unity Government (NUG).

"You know that negotiation is oftenly about discreation and most of the time it is done in a very discrete if not secret manner just be aware that we engaging with all parties concern within our mandate," he said in ASEAN Today programme.

All ASEAN leaders are expected to attend the three-day Summits except for Myanmar and Malaysia. Myanmar military leaders had been barred from ASEAN meetings since last year, while the junta has also refused to send any non-political representative to the meetings.

Meanwhile, Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob will not be attending the ASEAN Summits as Malaysia is currently in the midst of holding its 15th General Elections.

Instead, Dewan Rakyat Speaker Tan Sri Azhar Azizan Harun will lead the Malaysian delegation to the 40th and 41st ASEAN Summit and Related Summits.

Amid the setbacks the 10-member grouping faced, it is still worthwhile to see if the ASEAN leaders will take on new strategy to deal with the crisis, with the end game is to restore peace and democracy in Myanmar.

ASEAN is made of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam