Bugaya by-election: Real tussle between Warisan and BN - Political analyst

Political analysts see that despite the seven-cornered fight, the seat is going to be a straight fight between Jamil Hamzah who is defending the Warisan seat and Abd Aziz Mohd Ibno of Barisan Nasional (BN).

In the Sabah state election in 2020, Datin Manis Muka Mohd Darah of Warisan won the seat with a majority of 6,005 votes, but she died on Nov 17, 2020 following kidney complications and the by-election was postponed due to the proclamation of emergency to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) Assoc Prof Dr Zaini Othman who is also Institute of Ethnic Studies (KITA) senior research fellow, said BN and Warisan candidates are seen to be the strong contenders compared to the other candidates.

"I see that these two parties are the people's favourites, mainly because this is a Warisan's stronghold while the BN candidate is from Semporna and both have their campaign strategies and are going all out to meet the voters," he told Bernama.

Zaini said that in general, development and local issues are the hot topics and points being considered by the constituents in making their decision on who to vote.

"The people are questioning if the Warisan candidate is voted in, can the party bring development as currently Warisan is not part of the government. Will the candidate be able to fulfill the voters' aspirations since he did not grow up in Semporna though his family is from here.

"As for the BN candidate, he was chosen by the ruling state government but the question is, will he understand and fight for the constituents since he is not a native of Bugaya.

At the same time, he said the BN candidate is said to have the support of the followers of the previous incumbent (Manis Muka), but in any case both parties stand a good chance of winning the seat based on the issues they are fighting for in the area.

"Warisan stands a good chance, but the party must not take things for granted and if they do not take the constituents' concerns seriously or if their machinery fail to convince the voters, this will have big impact on the party's opportunity to win.

"BN also has a chance but its machinery needs to be streamlined," he said adding that if BN wins the Bugaya state seat it will give the perspective or perception that Semporna is no longer Warisan's stronghold.

"Warisan's defeat here will be a blow to the party's dominance in this district, he added.

Meanwhile, Universiti Malaysia Sabah senior lecturer Dr Romzi Ationg said Warisan still has a chance to defend the Bugaya state seat but BN's fight must not be taken lightly and in the final analysis it would all depend on the candidate's will to convince voters.

Besides the two candidates, five others namely Arastam Pandorog (Pakatan Harapan), Mohd Hassan Abu Bakar (Pejuang), Nazmawati Walli (Parti Bangsa Malaysia), Karil Pg Kuraini (Parti Perpaduan Rakyat Sabah) and independent candidate Jufazli Shi Ahmad are contesting the Bugaya state by-election which has 32,761 registered voters.