Claims by contesting parties on winning GE15: Perception or truth?

With hardly two days left before polling, which is this Saturday (Nov 19), only the main political coalitions, namely Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), are increasingly playing the narrative that their coalition is able to get a majority to form a government.

Some political parties are confidently stating that they are capable of obtaining a two-thirds majority to form a government and no less than two others have been expressing their confidence in getting more than 112 seats to go to Putrajaya, without having to merge with other parties.

In fact, several studies by public opinion research centers, such as the Invoke Centre for Policy Initiatives (Invoke), Darul Ehsan Institute (IDE) and YouGov, are claiming that PH is ahead of the other competing coalitions.

Based on the findings of studies on voter sentiment conducted by various parties, it shows the respondents' tendency to a certain party, which indirectly gives the impression that there is a coalition that is capable of breaking the deadlock.

Are the findings accurate, or could it be that the actions of these political parties are just to build a perception based on their own assessment and to try to influence the mind and initial perception of electors?

Political analyst, Dr Ainul Adzellie Hasnul (subs: he) opines that with campaigning entering the second week, the impact of the campaign involving a party is starting to show positive results, hence refuting the study that states that no party will get a majority to establish the government.

"If others see PH leading, I see the possibility of BN being able to form a simple majority based on its campaign and excellent record in five by-elections and two state elections held in the last term," he told Bernama.

He said the study by the independent bodies was not representative of the more than 21 million registered electors in GE15, considering that the survey was based only on a limited number of respondents.

"I see the predictions released by an independent body that a certain party is leading is more of a psychological warfare or propaganda to convince electors, especially the fence-sitters, the 18-year-old newly registered electors to vote for the party," he said.

This matter can be reconsidered by the electors, in the case of the state elections in Melaka and Johore, where the initial predictions were different from the actual results.

For example, in Melaka, the initial survey by independent observers found that Barisan Nasional was only able to win 10 seats the most, while the State BN chairman Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan targeted 18 seats and the final results saw BN won 21 out of 27 seats, with Pakatan Harapan not winning a single seat.

Meanwhile, a political analyst from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Associate Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian opines that the claim of no party will be able to obtain a majority to form a government cannot be accepted with the increase in the number of electors, totaling 21.1 million in GE15, from 14.9 million in GE14.

He said that some studies use reactions on social media to gauge support for a party.

"We have to remember, every candidate has a different approach, depending on the area and demographics, in conducting their campaign.

"Some still rely on the conventional approach of going from house to house which is seen to bring them closer to the electors, and that can indirectly win the hearts of the fence-sitters, hence giving more chance to win," he said.

Touching on an attitude study by an independent body, Sivamurugan said the findings can be used as a guideline.

"We also need to know to what extent this body is independent and what are the guidelines in conducting the survey? So as voters, we need to be rational in verifying the allegations," he said, adding that the BN campaign was more effective and could translate into votes.

Yesterday, caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, at an event in Bera, said that electors should not be influenced by the predictions or findings of surveys or studies on voter sentiment conducted by independent bodies that BN is lagging behind in GE15 because it is only propaganda by certain parties.

-- BERNAMA