[COLUMNIST] Echoes of Appeasement: PM's China Dilemma and the Price of Short-Term Gains

KUALA LUMPUR : Winston Churchill's wartime dance on the global stage serves as a stark reminder of the tightrope walk faced by every leader burdened with the mantle of national destiny.

His masterful weaving of alliances and shrewd exploitation of rivalries secured Britain's place amidst the inferno of World War II, forever etching his name in the annals of diplomatic dexterity.

Yet, Churchill's balancing act is just one chapter in a long and rich tapestry of leadership, each thread woven with the anxieties and aspirations of a nation navigating the choppy waters of the international order.

From Nelson Mandela's pursuit of reconciliation to Henry Kissinger's cold embrace of realpolitik, history offers a treasure trove of approaches to this perennial dilemma: how to safeguard a nation's interests while engaging with a world brimming with both opportunity and peril.

In Malaysia, this age-old question takes on a uniquely contemporary form, demanding a nuanced response from Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

As he navigates the treacherous currents of China's assertive presence, the allure of economic partnerships, and the simmering territorial disputes, his every move will be scrutinized through the lens of history's lessons, each misstep echoing the whispers of "Churchill did it differently."

Can Anwar Ibrahim forge his own path to diplomatic success, or will he stumble on the treacherous shoals of national ambition and global entanglements? Only time will tell, but the echoes of history offer both cautionary tales and guiding lights as Malaysia charts its course on the world stage.

Anwar's approach to China, particularly his embrace of Huawei and his economic investment-centric rhetoric, such as his comment recently reported in the media on the 19th of December, “We are leaning towards China because they invest more in Malaysia,” marks a departure from the historical standards of diplomatic prudence.

This deviation raises concerns about whether he is prioritising short-term gains over long-term strategic considerations, a path fraught with potential pitfalls.

His advocacy for Huawei in the 5G network, despite alleged security concerns, echoes the missteps of leaders who prioritized immediate economic benefits from Chinese investments over critical infrastructure security. Examples abound:

• The Sri Lankan experience with Hambantota Port, where a massive Chinese loan for port construction spiralled into debt and ultimately forced the government to lease the port to China for 99 years, raising concerns about strategic control and dependence.

• The case of Zambia, where Chinese debt for infrastructure projects has ballooned, jeopardizing the country's sovereignty, and potentially paving the way for resource extraction concessions.

These cautionary tales highlight the dangers of neglecting long-term geopolitical consequences in the pursuit of quick economic wins. While Chinese investment can be a powerful engine for growth, it must be approached with a clear-eyed understanding of the potential strings attached.

Furthermore, Anwar's statements favouring China due to its economic ties potential heft risk emboldening Beijing's assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea, a region where Malaysia has a vested interest in safeguarding its maritime borders and resources.

This approach could alienate other key regional players like Japan, jeopardising the delicate balance of power in the region and potentially undermining Malaysia's long-term security interests.

Therefore, Anwar's foreign policy needs a recalibration. While acknowledging the importance of economic ties with China, he must prioritize a more balanced and strategic approach that safeguards Malaysia's national interests and regional stability.

This means diversifying economic partnerships, upholding international norms and maritime laws, and fostering stronger alliances with like-minded nations.

Only by navigating this complex geopolitical landscape with careful consideration for both immediate economic needs and long-term strategic realities can Anwar truly ensure a prosperous and secure future for Malaysia.

Anwar's muted response to China's sweeping 9-dash line claims in the South China Sea echoes the unsettling spectre of Neville Chamberlain's appeasement policy towards Nazi Germany in the years leading up to World War II.

This historical parallel is more than just a coincidence; it serves as a stark warning about the potential consequences of underestimating aggressive territorial ambitions and failing to take a firm diplomatic stance in defence of national sovereignty.

Chamberlain's appeasement policy, characterized by a series of concessions to Hitler in the hopes of avoiding conflict, ultimately emboldened Germany and paved the way for a devastating war.

Similarly, Anwar's seemingly passive approach towards China's expansive claims risks sending a dangerous message of weakness and emboldening Beijing to further encroach upon Malaysian waters and maritime resources.

History teaches us that appeasement in the face of brazen territorial claims often leads to a cycle of escalating demands and ultimately, conflict.

Just as Chamberlain's concessions emboldened Hitler to annex Austria and Czechoslovakia, China's perceived lack of resistance from Malaysia could lead to bolder actions, such as increased militarization of disputed islands or even attempts to restrict Malaysian access to vital maritime resources.

The dangers of appeasement extend beyond immediate territorial losses. By failing to defend its sovereignty, Malaysia risks undermining its credibility and influence within the region.

Other Southeast Asian nations, observing Malaysia's seeming acquiescence to China's claims, may be less inclined to stand up for their own interests, creating a domino effect of concessions that could further consolidate Chinese dominance in the South China Sea.

Furthermore, Anwar's muted response risks damaging Malaysia's long-standing alliances with key regional players, who also have significant interests in a free and open maritime order.

A perception of Malaysia being overly accommodating towards China could weaken these alliances, leaving the country potentially isolated and vulnerable in the face of future Chinese assertiveness.

Therefore, it is imperative for Anwar to recalibrate his approach to China's 9-dash line claims. He must adopt a firm and principled stance, unequivocally asserting Malaysian sovereignty over its maritime territory and upholding international law. This could involve measures such as:

• Publicly and consistently denouncing China's claims.

• Engaging in proactive diplomacy with other Southeast Asian nations to build a united front against Chinese expansionism.

• Investing in maritime capabilities to better patrol and defend Malaysia's territorial waters.

By taking a resolute stand against China's territorial ambitions, Anwar can not only safeguard Malaysia's sovereignty but also contribute to a more stable and peaceful regional order.

History teaches us that appeasement only emboldens aggression; it is time for Malaysia to show the world that it will not be cowed and will stand firm in defence of its national interests.

Anwar Ibrahim faces a complex diplomatic landscape, where the siren song of China's economic might clashes with the imperative to protect national sovereignty and uphold international norms.

To navigate these challenges effectively, he must abandon the simplistic allure of either appeasement or unyielding defiance. Instead, a nuanced and strategic approach is required, one that recognizes the need for both pragmatism and principle.

This approach demands carefully crafting public statements and diplomatic engagements. Gone are the days of pronouncements favouring China solely for investment promises, or muted responses to territorial encroachments.

Anwar must become a master of strategic ambiguity, balancing the need for clarity with the flexibility to navigate shifting geopolitical realities.

He can take inspiration from global leaders like Angela Merkel, who masterfully balanced Germany's economic interests with broader European Union priorities. Merkel's success stemmed from her ability to:

• Engage in open and transparent communication, building trust and understanding with key stakeholders. Anwar can do the same by openly outlining Malaysia's interests and concerns regarding China, both domestically and on the international stage.

• Forge strong alliances and partnerships, recognizing that no nation can stand alone in the face of global challenges. Anwar can leverage Malaysia's existing alliances, while fostering closer ties with other Southeast Asian nations to present a united front against undue pressure.

• Uphold international law and norms, demonstrating a commitment to a rules-based order that benefits all nations. Anwar can actively participate in regional initiatives and multilateral forums, advocating for principles of maritime freedom and peaceful resolution of disputes.

• Promote economic diversification, reducing Malaysia's dependence on any single trading partner. Anwar can incentivize investments from diverse sources, ensuring Malaysia's economic future is not beholden to the whims of any one power.

By adopting this multi-pronged approach, Anwar can navigate the complex relationship with China without compromising Malaysia's sovereignty or its commitment to a peaceful and prosperous region.

He can embrace economic opportunities without sacrificing strategic autonomy, ensuring that Malaysia's future is shaped by its own values and aspirations, not by the dictates of external powers.

As the echoes of history whisper cautionary tales, Anwar Ibrahim's dance with the dragon continues. Will he be remembered as the leader who steered Malaysia through this tempestuous era with unwavering resolve, or as the one who, tempted by fleeting promises, lost sight of the nation's soul? The answer, etched in the sands of time, awaits its revelation.

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* Ahmad Zaim Ahmad Tawfek was an assistant to Federal ministers in formulating economic, youth and foreign policies for Malaysia.

** The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of Astro AWANI.