[COLUMNIST] The Strait Gamble: Anwar’s Risky Bet on Thailand’s Land Bridge Project

KUALA LUMPUR: In the complex chess game of Southeast Asian geopolitics, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s recent endorsement of Thailand's proposed land bridge project marks a notable move.

This ambitious plan, a part of China's sprawling Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aims to forge a 90-kilometer transit route between the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea, potentially rerouting significant maritime traffic away from the Straits of Malacca.

While the Prime Minister envisions economic dividends, particularly for northern Peninsular Malaysia, his stance seems to gloss over substantial geopolitical and economic perils that lurk beneath the surface.

The Straits of Malacca, a maritime lifeline for global trade, have long bolstered the economies of Malaysia and Singapore. Anwar's optimistic portrayal of the land bridge's benefits fails to confront the potential economic upheaval this shift might unleash.

Reducing Malaysia’s centrality in global shipping could impair both countries, affecting everything from port revenues to local businesses tied to maritime logistics. This projected economic turbulence raises questions about the prudence of Anwar’s support for the project, casting doubts on its long-term economic soundness.

Anwar's readiness to collaborate on a BRI-affiliated project raises eyebrows, given the initiative’s history of leaving participant nations entangled in debt and dependent on China.

This alignment risks drawing Malaysia closer to China’s orbit, potentially at the expense of its strategic autonomy and regional relations. It hints at a precarious pivot, where short-term regional integration is pursued without fully accounting for the long-term implications of increased Chinese influence in Southeast Asia.

The land bridge, slated to traverse Thailand’s conflict-prone south, is not just an economic venture but a security and environmental conundrum. Mr. Anwar’s statement seems to skirt around these critical issues, which are essential for a comprehensive evaluation of the project’s feasibility.

The environmental impact of constructing new ports and the project's encroachment on delicate ecosystems merit more than a cursory glance.

The land bridge's economic viability remains contentious. Despite the promise of shortened transit times, the logistical complexity of ships docking and transferring cargo overland could deter its use. This raises the spectre of the project becoming an underutilized white elephant, an outcome that would starkly contrast with Mr. Anwar's optimistic projections.

As Malaysia charts its course in these evolving geopolitical currents, Mr. Anwar’s embrace of the Thai land bridge project emerges as a gamble, potentially fraught with more risks than rewards. It underscores the need for a more cautious and strategically nuanced approach to international collaborations, particularly with mega-projects under the BRI umbrella.

The imperative for Anwar and his government is to balance immediate regional cooperation goals with a clear-eyed assessment of the long-term national interests. This includes maintaining economic stability, safeguarding environmental integrity, and preserving Malaysia’s geopolitical autonomy.

As Southeast Asia grapples with the tug-of-war between regional integration and national sovereignty, Malaysia's stance on the Thai land bridge project could well be a bellwether of the region's future direction in the face of rising superpowers.