COVID-19: Lives before jobs

Unfortunately, just as the daily number of new infections break new records, so has the number of deaths, with the cumulative death rate since the crisis began rising to 0.43%. With 2020 seeing only 471 COVID-19 deaths, even this percentage is disarmingly low. Analysis by Dato Dr Amar Singh HSS below shows Malaysia’s death rate over the last 18 days has increased to 0.67%, with the trend being exponential. On the back of this trend, Pejuang’s Research Bureau projects that the daily number of deaths potentially reaching triple digits within the next 2 weeks, with no definitive peak assessable.

The rapid increase in the number of deaths coincides with clear signals and statistics showing the healthcare system is being overwhelmed despite the best efforts of our front-liners, especially the increasingly stretched staff of the Ministry of Health (KKM). Some hardware limitations may be alleviated by say repurposing ICU beds (as illustrated below), however, it is the human resource, our front-liners, that will be harder to increase. Already there is a call for volunteers to take the place of front-liners where possible, such as at vaccination centres, but there is not much spare beyond this.

The above diagram shows the results of recent efforts of repurposing ICU beds for COVID-19 patients in Klang Valley, which barely covers immediate needs up to 18 May 2021. It should be noted also the steep incline of demand for Covid-19 ICU facilities since 10 April 2021, with demand threatening to outstrip the supply of said beds by late April. Such a situation should have triggered an immediate response from the government then, with KKM statistics such as these readily available, driving many experts to raise the possibility of a new Covid-19 wave developing since even early April.

It is our considered view that the government should have implemented a strict MCO at latest by the end of April 2021, especially with even Cabinet Ministers clearly stating the likelihood of another wave of infections. The government’s indecisiveness at that critical time compelled Pejuang’s leadership to highlight the urgency for action through all accessible forums, culminating in a public statement by YB Tun Mahathir on 10 May 2021 to the nation, outlining necessary measures, in particular the need of a full lockdown to be implemented despite it being on the eve of Hari Raya Aidil Fitri.

The government seemed to listen then, but its actions have been disappointingly limited, despite the declared Darurat providing them with extraordinary leeway for direct and indirect action necessary to prevent rapid escalation of infections and deaths. The current lockdown or ‘MCO 3.0’ for instance excludes ‘economic sectors’, ignoring the fact that the workplace, in particular factories and construction sites, contribute to more than 75% of cases and clusters as illustrated below by Code Blue with data again drawn from KKM. The question then is, why did the government do this?

Could the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government be doing so as it prioritises the economy over the lives of Malaysians? This is a conclusion hard to swallow for any Malaysian, as it is against the very values of our society, with every religion practiced in Malaysia believing life to be a sacred gift that certainly cannot be measured against material wealth. However, in a Facebook posting on 18 May 2021, the Minister of Finance, YBM Senator Dato Sri Tengku Zafrul, emphasized the economy as PN’s priority, justifying it for the common man by saying it is to curb further unemployment.

So, how many Malaysian deaths then is worth keeping a million Malaysians employed? 50 a day? 100 a day? 1000 a day? With the abundance of experience from other countries, including those that kept their economies more open in the first wave of COVID-19 available such as Sweden or the UK, surely the MoF has an informed view of the perfect trade-off between the national COVID-19 death rate and the nation’s GDP? Perhaps the Prime Minister can share this insight in his next speech so we can explain to the relatives of all who have died of late that this was a sacrifice needed to save jobs.

The Finance Minister further claims that no country in the world has locked down their economies fully once lessons have been learned from the first COVID-19 wave. Well, this is only partly true, as many countries have also learned the painful lessons of not adequately locking down their economies in the first wave, and many can apply a more relaxed lockdown due to higher percentage of vaccinations as well as more rigorous, disciplined and consistent application of SOPs, even by their Cabinet Ministers. Can he say Malaysia is in the same position as such countries in these matters?

Lockdowns continue to happen around the world. Recently, Taiwan and Singapore immediately applied lockdowns to ‘flatten the curve’, despite the economic penalties, the former’s greater success in curtailing infections as well as the faster vaccination roll-out in the latter. Even South Korea, the nation with the highest number of hospital beds per capita in the world, has had to fall back on ever stricter lockdowns in recent times. These nations appear to have their priorities right. They prioritise the lives of their people, and in truth, this will also be better for the economy in the long run.

The Pejuang Research Bureau may recommend a full lockdown as necessary at present, however, perhaps a Malaysian government should also start prioritising some of the following actions to better weather this and future potential Covid-19 waves; these are our pick of many ideas being shared:

1.Show true leadership by example, avoiding any perception of double-standards and holding accountability of all those in government, in particular the PM and his Cabinet Members.

2.Implement mass testing using KKM approved sets of Rapid Test Kits provided conveniently for a relatively small, subsidised cost to all Malaysians.

3.Simplify the entire MCO structure away from the current alphabet soup that continues to cause confusion, with standard, simple SOPs clearly and consistently defined for each level. Examples abound in more successful nations in this area such as Germany and South Korea.

4.Establish a Safety Culture program for the people to truly buy into the ‘New Normal’ rather than just repeatedly urging everyone to ‘follow the SOP’, a strategy that is clearly not working. Our people must be made to understand that the pandemic free days of the past will likely never return and that our culture must change for us to survive and thrive moving forward.

5.Get the vaccine roll-out right. 6.Take responsibility for the socio-economic safety of those most vulnerable to the impact of this pandemic, especially due to lockdowns, regardless of the cost to the government. The role of a government is critical during a crisis such as this pandemic. The government begins addressing matters correctly if it begins with the right priorities, most importantly, people’s lives.

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*Akhramsyah Muammar Ubaidah Sanusi is a Head of Research, Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang).