Expert foresees more frequent El Nino in future

Malaysia will experience more frequent El Nino phenomena with biennial occurrence expected in the next few years due to worsening global warming.

According to University Malaysia Pahang (UMP) Civil Engineering and Natural Resources Faculty, senior lecturer, Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat the situation arises following drastic temperature increase in the world, partly due to increased carbon dioxide levels in the air.

"If we look at 1980 to 1988, this phenomenon occurred once in four years. However from 1998 to 2015 the situation can be said to occur as frequent as triennially, regardless in weak, moderate or strong forms.

"For example in 2012, the phenomena had already existed but Malaysia was not affected and in 2014 we experienced a weak El Nino and it grew stronger this year causing us to experience the extreme hot weather.

"Based on the pattern, we are about to experience the El Nino phenomenon once in two years," she told Bernama recently.

Nurul Nadrah Aqilah said currently El Nino which means 'the boy' was closely linked to global warming brought about by various factors including development and increasing carbon dioxide emissions which have created a greenhouse effect.

"If we notice the global temperature in December last year, for the first time in 120 years it recorded a drastic one degree Celsius increase compared to 0.2 to 0.6 degrees Celsius previously.

"In fact last February, the Global Average Temperature (GAT) issued by a meteorological agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) based in America also recorded an increase in global temperatures of +1.2 degrees Celsius.

"As a result, the northeast monsoon which should bring heavy rainfall to this country last December and January was hampered by the El Nino," she said.

In addition, she said, the GAT report conducted by NOAA also found that normal temperatures for Malaysia at the end of the 21st century would reach between 35 to 38 degrees Celsius, equivalent to the current temperature experienced during the El Nino.

Normally, she said, the El Nino phenomenon occurred once in four to seven years and its occurrence was due to the warm sea currents replacing the cold ocean currents off the west coast of Peru, South America.

Nurul Nadrah Aqilah said the urban population felt the brunt of the El Nino's heat because winds were hindered by buildings built haphazardly and heat could not be absorbed due to the absence of trees and green pastures.

"Perhaps many are wondering why Malaysia has to bear with the extreme hot weather when the country that is situated near the equator, should be enjoying warm and wet weather throughout the year.

"Generally the Asean region is a low pressure area compared to the United States. However due to the El Nino, the situation has reversed resulting in cold winds from Papua New Guinea moving to America and the hot winds moving to the Asean region, thus giving us the hot weather.

"This situation has resulted in less rainfall and water shortage as experienced in the northern states," she said.

On the water supply problem, she proposed that the relevant parties take steps to improve on the water management system, including constructing secondary dams to retain excess water during the rainy season.

She said usually, excess water which could not be accommodated by dams during continuous heavy rains were released into the rivers while it should be stored to meet the needs during the dry season.

At the same time, she added, the government should consider the use of 'evaloc' which is widely used in India to reduce the high rate of evaporation at dams around the country.