Kinabatangan is one of the "fixed deposit" parliamentary seats for BN with its incumbent, Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, who is also the State BN chairman, is no stranger to Sabah, having maintained the momentum of his leadership and influence since he was elected as its Member of Parliament (MP) in 1999.
Synonymous with the slogan 'radu tapap radu', Bung Moktar is not an easy candidate to beat, having survived for five terms as the MP, and in fact, won in style in every general election to defend the seat.
The Sabah's 'political giant', who is known for his firm, bold and outspoken character, won the Kinabatangan parliamentary seat uncontested in GE11 in 2004.
But, does he still have the "sting" to maintain his stronghold in GE15 in a straight fight against Parti Warisan (Warisan) candidate Mazliwati Abd Malek, a fresh candidate who is eager to bring change in the constituency, including its political landscape.
Political analyst Dr Syahruddin Awang Ahmad, a researcher at the Sabah Geopolitical and Electoral Studies Unit (GeoPes) of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), said Bung Moktar could defend the Kinabatangan seat in a 'classic way', which is to maintain the support of party supporters and those who voted for him before.
He believes Bung Moktar is capable of defending the seat in GE15 based on his extensive experience as a politician having held positions at various levels and been through changes in the state and country's political landscape under a few chief ministers and prime ministers.
However, Syahruddin said Bung Moktar's majority vote may be reduced due to several factors such as internal issues in UMNO and BN, unity of the machinery in mobilising workers to appeal for votes, and the emergence of Mazliwati, a female candidate who comes from a politically influential family as his contender.
Describing the contest for the Kinabatangan seat as epic, Syahruddin said it was because Mazliwati is the eldest child of the late Kuamut Assemblyman Datuk Abd Malek Chua, who held the post for three terms, from 1976 to 1986, and 1999 to 2004.
"The experience and knowledge of the Kuamut community in particular and Kinabatangan in general about her father is extensive, especially in terms of his political activities and contributions throughout his time as an assemblyman.
"Therefore, Mazliwati has a good resume and is competitive to the incumbent in the eyes of the people in the Kinabatangan parliamentary constituency because of her father's service and this can be a factor that will contribute votes from the grassroots, especially in the Kuamut constituency, for her," he said.
Syahruddin said Mazliwati's creativity attracted the attention of new electors and raised doubts among die-hard voters in the Kinabatangan parliamentary constituency and this may also be a factor that will reduce Bung Moktar's majority.
Meanwhile, another Sabah political analyst, Tony Paridi Bagang, said the straight fight for the Kinabatangan seat is interesting as Bung Moktar is facing a female candidate and a clash between a national party and a local party.
The senior lecturer at the Faculty of Administrative Science and Policy Studies, Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) Sabah, however, said it would not be surprising if Bung Moktar, who is Sabah Deputy Chief Minister, retained the seat, based on his performance in the previous election.
"In the last GE14, Bung Moktar got a big vote. In terms of popular vote, Bung Moktar is still the champion," he said, adding that Mazliwati, as a female and a new face, will be a competitive competitor who is seen to be able to influence voters in Kinabatangan.
"Post GE14 taught us that the political landscape can change overnight. It is not impossible that Mazliwati could become a 'giant killer' but it depends on the political dynamics in Kinabatangan. Various factors can contribute to an extraordinary victory and it is not as easy as imagined," he said.
In GE14, Bung Moktar won with a majority of 9,478 votes, defeating Ghazali Abdul Ghani from Warisan and Mustapa Datu Tambuyong (Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah).
For GE15, there are 44,773 electors in the Kinabatangan parliamentary constituency, comprising 23,163 males and 21,610 females.
The polling day is this Saturday (Nov 19)
-- BERNAMA
