New political parties add colour to Johor polls, say analysts

Barisan Nasional (BN) hopes that the state will return to be their stronghold, but it will certainly not be given easy access by Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH).

The state election will also witness several new political parties, with Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang), Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) making their debut, as well as Parti Warisan (Warisan) which will contest for the first time in the Peninsula. There is also the established Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM).

Mathematically, MUDA, which is a strategic partner of PH as well as Pejuang which will be contesting in 42 state seats, can form the state government if they get a simple majority of 29 seats.

MUDA will be fielding seven candidates, while Warisan will contest six seats, PBM (four) and PSM (one).

The Election Commission (EC) has set March 12 as polling day, with nomination day being tomorrow (Feb 26) and early voting on March 8.

Political analyst, Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, from Universiti Sains Malaysia, sees the participation of Warisan and PBM could be decisive in the formation of the state government, if they succeed in gaining seats and with no party getting a clear majority.

Apart from that, he said that the state polls will also serve as a testing ground to see if these parties had the support of the people, and subsequently formulate a strategy for the 15th General Election (GE15).

"If their strategy is successful, it will be adopted in GE15, and if they lose, improvements and interventions will be made to face the next election," he told Bernama today.

However, the participation of more political parties is seen to split the vote and give an advantage to BN if it uses the right approach and strategy.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia's (UTM) Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities senior lecturer, Dr Muhammed Fauzi Othman, is of the view that the participation of more political parties in the Johor polls shows a normal development in a mature democratic system.

"I think most parties will try to unite either in a consistent or loose frame like in the United Kingdom (Conservative and Labour) or the United States (Republican and Democrat). This we can see in PH and PN, which are a mixture of various aspirations of the parties but try to unite within the same frame," he said.

On the chances of the contesting parties, he said that UMNO and BN are seen to have a good chance of winning the Johor state election if more traditional voters go to the polls than urban and middle-class voters.

"The rural community is still voting on classic sentiments, still remain as loyal supporters for UMNO and BN, and I think the party has also done a good job in showing their concern for the people, but for the middle-class or urban voters, their wishes are varied and not easy to be fulfilled, "he added.

Both analysts expect voters to focus on political parties that can offer solutions to local issues such as livelihood, housing, education and employment opportunities, in making their choices.

In GE14, PH obtained the mandate to form the Johor state government after winning 36 state seats, with DAP getting 14 seats, Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) (nine), PKR (five) and Bersatu (eight).

BN got 19 seats, while PAS only secured one seat.

However, the PH government in Johor fell after Bersatu publicly withdrew from PH at the federal level on Feb 24, 2020.

Following that, Bersatu then formed the Perikatan Nasional (PN) which was also joined by parties under BN and PAS, thus forming the Johor state government with 29 seats.