Ong: GE13 is not a Chinese Tsunami

Ong in his analysis found that Pakatan's popular vote in the whole of Malaysia increased by 3.2% to 50.9% in 2013, compared to 47.6% in 2008.

BN's popular vote however decreased from 51.4% in 2008 to 47.4% in 2013, a 4.0% decrease.

Ong in a press conference in DAP headquarters said that his calculations were made using valid votes at parliament level.

“Pakatan increased its share of parliament seats from 37% in 2008 to 40% in 2013 by winning an extra 7 parliament seats.”

Overall, PKR won 30 seats, PAS 21 seats and DAP 38 seats making the total of 89 parliament seats bagged by Pakatan Rakyat in GE 2013.

Ong also noted that Pakatan’s support has also increased in 11 out of 13 states including Malay majority seats of Perlis, Terengganu and Pahang.

However the highest increase is in Johor with an increase of 10.3%.

In P.102 Serdang where Ong also contested and won, shows an increase of 7% in Malay support especially among younger Malays.

BN also experienced a fall in support for more than 10% from 2008 to 2013 in 8 of the Dayak majority parliament seats in Sarawak as well as 7 Sabah Bumiputera seats.

In his findings, Ong stated that BN has to defend 46 marginal seats compared to 30 for PR in the next election. Marginal seats are seats where BN or PR win by 55% of vote of less.

“If the Malaysian tsunami can continue in the next GE, it’s very likely BN will lose in GE14”

Ong added that with the increased number of state seats, especially in frontline states of Johor, Sabah and Sarawak and with a decrease in the level of BN support in these states, BN cannot consider these states as fixed deposit any longer.

For BN to win two-third majority next GE, they would need the support from Pakatan to change the number of parliament seats.

“If you want to increase the number of parliamentary seat you have to have two-third majority and since BN don't have two-third majority they would need our support to change the number of parliamentary seats.”