[OPINION] Ayer Kuning By-Election: A Litmus Test for Malaysia’s Unity Govt or the Rise of a New Islamist Surge?

Prelude

The upcoming by-election in the Ayer Kuning state constituency in Perak presents more than just a routine electoral contest. It offers a crucial insight into the evolving political alliances, voter sentiment, and ideological realignments in post-GE15 Malaysia. While the 15th General Election (GE15) saw a fragmented three-cornered fight between Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH), and Perikatan Nasional (PN), the by-election is shaping into a very different ballgame.

Under the current arrangement, the Unity Government – a coalition of BN and PH – has agreed to field a BN (UMNO) candidate, while PAS will represent PN, and the Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) has entered the fray with an Indian candidate. This effectively transforms the contest into a two-bloc confrontation, with PSM likely playing a symbolic protest role.

What makes this by-election politically significant is not only the result but also how it reflects the durability of Malaysia’s fragile governing coalition, the resonance of right-wing Islamist narratives, and the electorate’s appetite for political stability versus moral outrage.

From Three-Cornered Split to Two-Front War

Unlike GE15–where BN won with only 38.7% of the votes while PH and PN garnered 29.3% and 29.0% respectively–the by-election is no longer a fragmented contest. With the Unity Government consolidating behind a single BN candidate, the combined vote share of BN and PH in the last election amounts to 68%, which, in theory, should offer a comfortable advantage.

However, political mathematics rarely translates into electoral chemistry. The real challenge lies in whether PH’s traditional voters–especially non-Malay, urban, and reformist-leaning– will accept and support a UMNO candidate, given the historical antagonism between the parties. Disaffection or low turnout among PH supporters could create cracks in the supposedly unified front, exposing the underlying ideological tensions within the coalition.

PN’s Islamist Mobilization: A Real Threat from Below

Represented by PAS, PN will rely heavily on its grassroots machinery, Islamic networks, and populist rhetoric. The party is expected to reframe the election as a battle between “clean governance” and “corrupt elites,” portraying the Unity Government as morally compromised. This messaging resonates with conservative Malay-Muslim voters and, crucially, with younger segments disillusioned by mainstream politics.

In GE15, PAS showed strength in several Malay-majority polling districts (DMs) such as Changkat Petai, Kampung Batu Tiga, and Tanjong Keramat. If they can expand on this base– especially by mobilizing youth and low-income voters– AS could potentially pull off an upset, particularly if Unity Government supporters stay home or cast protest votes.

PSM as the Spoiler for the Marginalised

While PSM is unlikely to win, their presence cannot be dismissed outright. By fielding an Indian candidate, they may draw protest votes from disillusioned segments of the Indian community, especially in estates and semi-urban areas like Kampung Rahmat and Ayer Kuning, where PH previously performed well. Even if PSM secures just 5–8% of the vote in these areas, it could be enough to affect the margins in a tight race.

Demographics and the Undercurrent of Youth Politics

With a voter base of approximately 31,000, Ayer Kuning comprises:

• 56% Malays

• 21% Chinese

• 14% Indians, and

• The rest being Orang Asli and other minorities.

While Malays remain the electoral kingmakers, another crucial layer lies in the age profile: over 40% of voters are aged 18 to 39. This group has increasingly aligned with PN in recent elections, drawn to its anti-elite discourse and Islamic credentials. The Unity Government will need to do more than promise stability–it must articulate a vision that resonates with aspirational, digitally connected youth who demand integrity and opportunity.

Three Plausible Scenarios

Scenario 1: A narrow win for the Unity Government (Probability: 45–50%)

If BN and PH successfully combine their ground operations and avoid internal sabotage, the by-election is theirs to lose. However, the margin is expected to be slim–possibly between 800 to 1,200 votes– given the latent distrust among grassroots supporters.

Scenario 2: A PAS–PN upset victory (Probability: 30–35%)

If young voters turn out in large numbers and the Unity Government fails to mobilize PH’s urban and non-Malay base, PN could exploit the narrative vacuum and clinch an unexpected victory – as it has in other by-elections recently.

Scenario 3: A comfortable win for BN–PH (Probability: 15–20%)

This best-case scenario for the government hinges on full voter consolidation, high turnout among Chinese and Indian voters, and minimal vote leakage to PSM. It requires strategic campaigning and strong messaging from national leaders.

A Referendum on Unity or a Rebellion Against It?

More than a local contest, Ayer Kuning represents a stress test of Malaysia’s Unity Government, now more than two years into its experiment of ideological compromise. It will measure how far voters are willing to go to support political stability–and whether they are ready to forgive historical enmity for the sake of national recovery.

Conversely, it also measures how successful PN–particularly PAS–can be in framing themselves as the moral alternative. The result could provide valuable indicators for upcoming state elections and the eventual GE16.

In essence, Ayer Kuning is not just about who wins the seat. It is about who wins the narrative war, and whether Malaysia’s political realignment is consolidating–or coming apart at the seams.

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Associate Prof Dr Zaini Othman is the Senior Research Fellow at Institute Of Ethnic Studies (Kita), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

** The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of Astro AWANI.

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