With or without Anwar, Kajang still a 'win' for Pakatan Rakyat

The Court of Appeal decision to convict Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim of sodomy has thrown Pakatan Rakyat back to square one: to find a replacement candidate in the Kajang by-election before nominations this Tuesday.

While this latest twist in the Sodomy II sage has crushed Anwar’s chances of becoming the new Selangor menteri besar, political analysts, however, are of the opinion that it now almost assures a win for Pakatan Rakyat in the March 23 polls.

They feel that it would also bolster support for the opposition coalition.

Ibrahim Suffian, from the independent pollster Merdeka Centre, said that whoever takes over Anwar’s place as candidate will still “likely” win the upcoming by-election.

“The Opposition will capitalise on this verdict, fire up their support base, and the sympathy votes for Anwar will pour in.

"We have seen (in the past) that the public does not particularly believe in this case. Coupled with the anger against the government on price hikes and inflation, votes will go in the Opposition’s favour,” said the political analyst.

Ibrahim cited a poll by Merdeka Centre during the Permatang Pauh by-election in 2008 where 59% of respondents felt that the charge against Anwar was politically motivated.

However, Centre of Strategic Engagement CEO Fui K. Soong feels that there was still more to be seen from the latest developments, especially with the Malay voters.

“It will take a few more days to see what the Malay ground will react as they are split three ways.But my gut feel that this is bad for BN.

"The pro-Khalid and pro-PAS factions, who were unsure of Anwar, and the 30% in PKR who are anti Anwar would now be pushed back into the fold. They have been given the anger and reason to consolidate,” said Fui.

She added that it was a forgone conclusion that the conviction will “further worsen both Chinese and Indian ground".

The Court of Appeal on Friday allowed an appeal from the prosecution, and found Anwar guilty of sodomising his former aide Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan six years ago.

Anwar was sentenced to five years jail, with a RM10,000 bail, but was allowed a stay of execution pending an appeal to the Federal Court.

Later yesterday, Anwar announced that he will no longer be contesting the Kajang by-election, though according to the Selangor Constitution, he has already lost the eligibility to be a state assemblyman based on the conviction and sentencing.

Meanwhile, political analyst Khoo Kay Peng said that the reconciliation plan by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has now been "thrown down the drain" with the verdict.

"This is reopening old political wounds again.

"The government can say that the judiciary is independent but the political forces at work will blame the government for it and claim interference," said Khoo.

He added: "Potential for unity plan has been dashed. It is going to be difficult as we are going back to square one, back to the time of Sodomy I, of animosity and divisive politics, of the Opposition calling for an alternative government, and Anwar becoming a rallying point again."

Earlier, social media research firm PoliTweet has predicted that Pakatan will “likely retain the seat” in the Kajang by-election.

Its calculations, based the voting trends based on GE12 and GE13 results, estimates an increase support from Chinese of all ages and a decrease in Malay support aged 43 and above.

PoliTweet said that for BN to win (by getting 19,483 votes), it means obtaining votes from early voters (1,177), BN-leaning voters (3,597), fence sitters (8,567) and 6,142 PR-leaning voters.

“That would require a minimum of 24% of PR supporters (6142/25624) to swing to BN, assuming all the other groups support BN 100%. A better target would be 30% of PR supporters (7,688 voters).”

Although it said that that scenario was unlikely for BN to achieve.