PAS will win in Sungai Limau, says study

PAS is expected to survive the Sungai Limau by-election with a win, though with a slimmer majority, according to a study done by research firm Ilham Centre.

The study, which collected samples from some 600 voters in the constituency's 19 voting districts from Oct 28 to Nov 1, predicted a negligible change in voting patterns.

In their latest survey on who voters would pick, PAS led by 48 percent and 42 percent for Barisan Nasional. The remaining 10 percent were still undecided.

According to Ilham Centre executive chairman Mohammed Hisommudin Bakar Muhammad (pic), PAS' strong voter support among the voters in the area is the main factor for the expected win.



“Study on the voting patterns do not show a major cross-over for both parties. This scenario would strengthen our conclusion that Malay voters are comfortable in retaining status quo in their party of choice,” said Mohammed Hisommuddin.

He said Chinese voters, consisting only 6.7 percent of the total voters, were seen to be more wary in their voting pattern this time.

“Chinese votes are said to be close to the rational choice model which considers the profit and loss, and the impact to their community."



BN, he said, is seen to be ‘optimistic’ based on several elements, namely their own hardcore supporters and well as its strong party machinery.

The study also noted that the by-election was seen as a clash between PAS and UMNO rather than BN and Pakatan Rakyat.

While largely regarded as the ‘underdog’, UMNO has aggressively campaigned while PAS has used a more defensive strategy, being confident of their supporters' votes.



As for the candidate factor, although only 12 percent said it played a significant part in their votes, PAS has the clear advantage with Ustaz Mohd Azam Abdul Samad.

The research house found that he was more well-known to the voters compared to the BN-UMNO's Dr Sohaimi Lazim.

The biggest advantage to Azam, as seen by voters, was his religious background while Sohaimi was his core BN supporters as well as his academic qualifications.

According to Ilham Centre, Sungai Limau voters did not see national or local issues as being important to their voting.