Sarawak Election: A GPS win expected, but how about the numbers?

Despite their relatively new status as a state coalition, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) will go into the 12th Sarawak election brimming with confidence, they opined.

Universiti Putra Malaysia political scientist, Prof Datuk Dr Jayum Jawan and National Professors' Council Senior Fellow Dr Jeniri Amir believe GPS will have no problems being the first to pass the post on Saturday night.

"GPS is expected to sail through with a comfortable majority. Even a two-thirds majority is not beyond the coalition's reach and this is due to disunited opponents going into the elections," Jayum told Bernama.

He said GPS, comprising established parties Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Parti Rakyat Sarawak(PRS), Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP) and Progressive Democratic Party(PDP), may have only been registered as a new coalition a few months after the 14th General Election, but they have dominated the state government since the 1970s.

"They have an extensive network at the grassroots level and well-greased machinery to face off with their opponents. It helps too that, except in a few areas, there is no major in-fighting that could weaken their efforts," he said.

Jayum said GPS has the advantage of having many incumbencies, and in a strict standard operating procedure (SOP)-guided campaign situation, this was an enormous "asset".

When GPS announced their line-up two days before nomination, they retained 58 incumbents as their candidates amid public focus on the 24 new faces fielded by the coalition.

On the other hand, the opposition parties, according to Jayum, seemed to be in disarray by going against each other in areas where they could have cooperated and consolidated their resources to have a better chance of winning.

There could be exceptions though. Jayum says while PBB is expected to sweep all seats in the Malay/Melanau majority areas, he feels there could still be some casualties for the backbone party of the coalition, particularly in Dayak dominant areas.

PBB's partners in GPS, in the likes of PDP, SUPP and PRS could also end up having the same fate, he said.

He feels among the four, PDP seems to be among the most vulnerable and three seats to watch closely will be Krian, Dudong and Ba' Kelalan.

SUPP, meanwhile is expected face a huge task in Chinese-majority areas like Padungan, Pending, Pelawan, Bawang Assan, Kota Sentosa, Bukit Assek and Tanjong Batu, as well as Iban dominant areas like Engkilili, Jayum said.

There is also the fact that PRS now goes into the election without the ever-familiar presence of Tan Sri Dr James Masing, its president who died in October.

For Jeniri, if the GPS machinery maintains its current momentum, the coalition is looking at securing at least 65 of the 82 seats at stake.

Despite the election campaign SOPs imposed, he said the GPS leadership has been working proactively to remind the electorate of their service track record since the coalition came about in 2018.

"On the back of these achievements, they have come up with a realistic 34-point manifesto capable of convincing Sarawakians that they can deliver what the people want," he said.