State polls: How will it play out on Aug 12?

Think tanks EMIR Research and Ilham Centre predict a status quo result, in which Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu remain under Perikatan Nasional (PN) while Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang stay with the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) political pact.

Speaking to Astro AWANI, political analyst James Chin said it was crucial to observe the pattern of Malay voters this time round.

This is because it could potentially lead to instability at the federal level.

“PN will argue that this (federal) government is not stable because the majority of the people, the Malays, do not support this government,” said the Professor of Asian Studies at University of Tasmania, Australia.

He expects PN to hold more state seats in Kedah, while making some inroads into Selangor and Penang and sweeping through Kelantan and Terengganu.

“If for example the unity government does badly and lose one or two seats to PN, then it is quite clear that there will be tremendous pressure on Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to change his government and policies.”

However, should such changes take place, Chin said it would not be immediate and only occur within the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, the support of parties in Borneo such as Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) could also hinge on the results on August 12th.

“If Anwar Ibrahim loses the Malay vote this Saturday and the government becomes unstable, there is really no reason for GPS or GRS to stay in.