The battle between DAP’s Dyana Sofya and Datuk Mah Siew Keong of Gerakan in the P076 Teluk Intan by-election will be a test case for both Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional (BN).

Firstly, the candidacy of Dyana – a very young Malay lady – is seen as an attempt by DAP to reach out to the Malay electorate, and is in its long-term the party's strategic plan for the 14th General Election (GE14).

If DAP is able to scoop up a big win with Dyana at a constituency which traditionally fielded Chinese candidates, it would change the outlook of the Malaysian political landscape— that voters do not really care about race anymore.

However, idealism and political reality are two starkly different things.

“While DAP’s decision to field a Malay candidate is a good public relations move, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they have changed the political mindset of people in Teluk Intan. It looks good on paper but political reality should not be ignored,” said political analyst Khoo Kay Peng.

Khoo also noted that it seemed “ironic” that DAP was attempting to break the racial mould of Malaysian politics by employing race themselves.

Equal chances for both

In the 13th (GE), DAP won the seat through its candidate Seah Leong Peng, who defeated BN’s Mah and independent candidate K. Moralingam with a 7,313 vote majority.

Leong Peng died on May 1 due to cancer.

Teluk Intan is a Chinese majority area with a sizeable Malay population. The parliamentary seat has 42% Chinese voters, 38% Malay and 19% Indian.

Given the scenario, Khoo said that DAP and Gerakan has almost equal chances of winning, at 50-50, come polling day on May 31.

While DAP can still ride on the ‘anti-BN’ sentiment that was prevalent since 2008 and 2013, especially among the Chinese voters; Khoo said that at the same time, the Teluk Intan voters won’t be swayed by the ‘Ubah’ call to topple the government.

“It is not a GE. You can’t say you are changing the government here. There is (also) a lot of unpredictability of the community. Hudud issue would affect the older voters,” said Khoo, citing the 1999 example when both DAP veterans Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh lost due to the Islamic law being brought up.

“Hudud remains a torn that DAP is stepping on, but it is a different DAP today and then,” he said, noting that Dyana has fired her first salvo by declaring she would not support hudud and much would depend on how both candidates campaign later.

“Dyana is still young and only has two years in politics. Is she, someone not from the state, able to relate to the voters, especially those from the Chinese community?

“If we compare candidate to candidate, Mah is stronger. He is a known figure in Teluk Intan, with a reputable family. He also has the advantage of being able to speak the language,” he said.

A much-needed boost for BN

For Mah, who has being standing in Teluk Intan for years and was two terms its MP until losing it in 2008, a win in the area would give a much-needed stimulus for the component party that has been said to be in need of ‘viagra’.

If the Gerakan president wins in the area, it would show that BN on the whole is back in the political arena since its devastating showing in GE13 in May last year, according to political analyst Profesor Datuk Dr Mohammad Agus Yusoff.

“Gerakan and other component parties are seen to be without any support anymore. It would be a tough fight, with an emphasis on Malay voters. We basically have 20% of hardcore supporters and 50 fence voters, so we are really looking at their campaign strategy,” said Mohammad Agus.

However, Mohammad Agus said that the excitedment over DAP’s candidate over ‘new politics’ of a young face with fresh ideas beats BN, despite having more experience and a service record. It is a “very difficult task for BN” although it is able to use its far superior machinery, and is ahead in “money and projects”.

Mohammad Agus said that with Teluk Intan being a semi-urban seat, national issues will be a focal point, and hudud will be one of them brought up. However, he said that hudud, in its current state, will simply cancel each other out and is neither an advantage or disadvantage for either party.

Other issues, such as the missing MH370, Goods and Service Tax (GST) and rising cost of living, would give DAP an edge over BN.

A test case for racial politics?

Prof Dr Mansor Mohd Noor of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) said that DAP’s brave choice of fielding Dyana is 'clearly' good for Pakatan Rakyat.

“They already know they have got the Chinese. In my calculations, BN has a very slim chance and would most likely lose,” said Mansor.

Mansor said that both DAP and Gerakan is founded on politics beyond race, but both parties are trapped with racial issues still.

“If race is no longer a main issue, and the issues are corruption, good governance and development delivery, then why does BN still have component parties that are raced-based? Why are some of Pakatan Rakyat’s parties still very race-centric?”

“It would be interesting if Gerakan had fielding an Indian candidate, right? Is it time that BN review its race-based formula? Can BN also be seen to be as united as Pakatan in the campaign stage?”

Mansor said that since the time of former Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, constituencies have become more mixed, and this has also changed the political landscape in regards to fielding candidates based on race.

“The country has changed and more people are open, it is not just the perception of those younger people from Gen XYZ and the urban folk only.”

During nomination today, 26-year-old Dyana is expected to be going against 53-year-old Mah who is a former deputy minister.