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US Presidential Election: What are swing states and why are they important?
Generally, most states would consistently vote for the same president, except few that enjoy similar level of support among Republican and Democrat voters. - file pic
- The winner of the United States (US) Presidential Election will be decided based on who can gather at least 270 out of 538 votes in the electoral college (EC)
- Each state has been appointed electors equal to their representation in the Senate and House of Representatives.
- Generally, most states would consistently vote for the same president, except few that enjoy similar level of support among Republican and Democrat voters.
- These few are called “swing states” and account for more than half of the total number of EC votes needed to win and where both candidates spend most effort in campaigning.
Arizona (11 EC)
- The state has been a Republican stronghold since 1952 apart from 1996 when Bill Clinton won the state.
- In 2016, Trump won the state with a thin margin of 3.5 percentage points.
- Over the past years, Arizona has seen sharp increase in Hispanic population leaning towards the Democrats.
- Florida is the most valuable state to win as it is one of the largest
- Florida stayed through its title having voted for Democrat Bill Clinton in 1996, Republican George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and Republican Donald Trump 2016.
- Florida has one of the fastest growing population, most of which are non-native voters.
- Donald Trump is determined to win Florida having adopted the state as his new residence and campaigned there a dozen of times, as compared to Joe Biden who has only campaigned in the state three times.
Michigan (16 EC)
- Democrats have won in every election in Michigan since 1992.
- Donald Trump managed to flip the state in 2016, although by a very narrow margin of less than one percentage point.
- Democrats have won for six consecutive presidential elections until Trump won the state in 2016 by a margin of less than one percent.
- The state has more than 700,000 union members in which Trump capitalized on during the previous election
- Before Donald Trump won the state in 2016, Wisconsin had never voted for Republican since 1984.
- Trump’s previous success can be attributed to the state's large number of working class whites in favor of Republican, although some parts do hold large Democrat supporters.
- The state's older electorate who largely supported Republican may also likely swing the vote after the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic by Trump’s administration.
Iowa (6 EC)
- The state voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012 but Trump won Iowa in 2016.
- Trump has a strong support mainly from those without college degrees and white evangelical group in the state.
- Historically, North Carolina has voted for Republican expect for when Obama won the state in 2008. In 2016, the state turned red again with Trump’s victory.
- The state is diverse with professionals, black voters and college students on the one hand who may vote for Democrat while on the other, rural and more conservative who would vote for Republican.
- With a large number of EC, Texas has been a stronghold for Republican and also the focal point of Trump’s “build a wall” campaign previously.
- However, Hispanic voters evidently leaning towards Biden may swing the state in favour of Democrat.
Ohio (18 EC)
- Only two people have won the presidential election without winning Ohio since 1900, Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy.
- Trump has won the state in 2016 and is projected to hold on to the win for this year’s election.
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