[COLUMNIST] Quo vadis, Johor?

In politics, where timing is everything, the upcoming Johor state election has much more at stake than what meet-the-eye.

And as pressure mounts in the game of numbers, one must have cobra-like patience to wait for the precise moment before you pounce your prey; that agile ability to play a long-waiting game is essential, if not a condition-precedent to win this election.

Snipers know and yearn for this exact, exquisite moment, or rather for the feel of it - the stasis when sound dissipates into silence and thoughts distill into mindlessness. It is almost meditative and in absolute silence: that second just before they pull the trigger.

Now, Barisan Nasional (Barisan) needs to find that elusive stasis before it hits the opponent in the ultimate battle of the 15th General Election (GE15). Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan (Pakatan) must first put its divided house in order after an embarrassing outing at the Melaka state election in November last year.

It is the same Melaka election that has fueled Barisan’s momentum after winning streaks of by-elections since the 14th General Election (GE14). Correspondingly, the-then Menteri Besar of Johor, Hasni Mohamad, has wasted no time raising concern on Johor’s one-seat majority state government.

What is more, when compounded with the fact that the one-seat majority belongs to Amanah, Hasni severely doubted Barisan’s ability to govern, standing too close to the edge of the precipice.

Youth Vote

In Johor, where the relationship of the ruling party with the palace plays a vital role, DYMM Sultan Ibrahim has given a nod for state assembly dissolution in January this year. The large wedge of time between then and the actual nomination day has paved way for a long and toxic campaigning period.

But that is the expected ebbs and flows of an election. What’s glaring this time around is that youth voters are eligible to vote for the first time after the implementation of UNDI18.

When polling stations open across the state, a staggering 750,000 voters aged between 18 to 21 will vote for the first time - making up 30% or more than one-fourth of Johor’s 2.4 million eligible voters. But what ticks them? Who are they voting for?

Ostensibly, the change in voters' average voting age will require a change in election strategies and campaign methods. But before that, we first must address the elephant in the room: the youth voting trend around the world is still sporadic, showing unpredictable voting tendencies.

In Germany last year, young voters turned up in droves only to snub big, established parties in favour of two smaller groups. Both of the smaller parties cumulatively focused on climate change, social justice, freer market and personal liberties.

However, as the dust settled after the election, data shows that older voters still decide Germany’s future even after the September 2021 election. This is because the demographic supremacy was just too overwhelming: 57% of all voters are over the age of 50 while 14% are under 30.

Even in a functioning democracy like Japan, youth voter turnout is still shown as one of the lowest. Out of 41 developed economies surveyed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), citing issues like generational gap, archaic campaigning methods, and a lack of awareness as reasons for not voting.

Perhaps it is best to look westward. In Zambia last year, youth played a key role in their election with the highest youth voter turnout. But prior to that, Zambia had robustly engaged with the youth by providing them platforms to learn about and practise governance. Those efforts bore fruit: Zambia’s youth now has more political awareness and more accurate information before voting.

The Stability that Never Sets In

Looking back in perspective, this election could serve as a double-whammy for Barisan since Johor is both the birthplace and traditional bastion of UMNO. Barisan had won (almost by convention) in each state election since 1959 until the dawn of May 9th, 2018.

But a lot has unravelled since 2018. In the days following Pakatan’s victory, three UMNO assemblymen broke rank to become independent representatives, leaving Barisan with a mortifying 16 state seats.

But Pakatan’s choice of Menteri Besar, the late Osman Sapian, was reported as being pressured to step down amid whispers of him falling out with the palace. Dr Sahruddin Jamal then took over but the infighting did not stop in the southern corridors of power.

However, it was the Sheraton Move that broke the camel’s back, which saw the fall of Pakatan’s short-lived government of 22 months. Subsequently, a new state coalition government, comprising 28 lawmakers from Barisan, Perikatan Nasional and PAS with a simple majority was formed in Johor.

Finally, on January 2022, the state monarch consented to the dissolution of the Johor State Legislative Assembly to pave the way for state polls. Hasni was the third Menteri Besar in less than two years, and clearly, stability remains a snark in this age and time.

The Mandate in Power Play

Evidently, no one is buying Hasni’s one-vote majority government as a reason to call for another election. To all and sundry, Barisan was pushing to prolong its grassroots feel-good factor after winning in Melaka (the catalyst for the Johor election).

But in politics, reading between the lines is a skill one must possess to stay afloat. Apart from being the ultimate bellwether of GE15, UMNO, too, is looking for an opportunity to bring those in power at Menara Dato’ Onn and Putrajaya back in its fold.

In an ecosystem where trust is always in deficit, UMNO’s Deputy President (Tok Mat) emerged with a headline that rings more like a reminder instead: “Win or lose in Johor, we will press Putrajaya for a general election.”

In one broad stroke, Tok Mat snubbed Prime Minister Ismail Sabri in no uncertain terms: stay the course or face the music.

In the context of Horowitz's house, a divided against itself cannot stand: the sooner Ismail understands this the better.

The Alternative

From a different political spectrum, young Malaysians are getting increasingly frustrated over the continued dominance of ageing political elites. To avoid the file and rank practised by older generations, the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) was born on the ideals of modern-day democracy.

And they have some guts, too. MUDA reached new heights when it entered discussions with DAP and Amanah and subsequently managed to walk away with six seats. Even though these seats are Bersatu and UMNO’s strongholds, it appeared as though MUDA tried to get a slice of the pie by negotiating its way - without having any robust vision in terms of governance and policy-making.

But we should not discount them - just look at how far they have come so far. As the first-ever youth-centric political party to focus on the youth agenda, it managed to raise RM2 million - and they actually reported their expenditure in helping those in need - a refreshing change in the management of political parties in Malaysia.

MUDA could very well turn out to be a creative force in Malaysia’s political sphere. Proven as a constant dynamic source of innovations, youth throughout history has been an enabler of change in both political system and economic opportunities.

As it is best to look before you leap, MUDA must watch with whom it forms an alliance or risk being subjected to political patronage. On a larger scale, time is nigh to regulate political funding, but that's another story for a different day.

Rebuilding the Southern shore

At the tail end of nomination day, it was clear that there will be no straight fight this time around. What will transpire on polling day are seven three-cornered fights, 35 four-cornered fights, eight five-cornered fights, four six-cornered fights, and two seven-cornered fights.

Both Barisan and Perikatan Nasional will be contesting all 56 seats.

There will be 50 candidates from Pakatan component parties, 42 from Pejuang, seven from MUDA, six from Sabah-based party, Warisan and 16 independent candidates.

202 male candidates with 37 female candidates with the oldest candidate aged 71 presenting Perikatan Nasional, while the youngest is 26 years old, representing the grand old party, UMNO and Perikatan Nasional.

At present, Johor is already one of the worst-hit states by the pandemic sending its economy into tatters. The pandemic, in general, has widened Malaysia’s existing inequality, producing a generation of youth saddled with underemployment and stagnant wages - and in Johor, the exorbitant price tag for housing.

Whoever wins on March 12th will need to push up the ramp in hope of getting the economy up and running. However, it will take much more to implement complementary policies that would facilitate the full reopening of borders. A new normal is not around the corner.

No matter which political coalition forms the next state government, they ought not to destabilise or undermine the needs of Johoreans, especially during these trying times. Restoring economic livelihoods shall, and must remain their number one priority.

Rocking the Vote

For this state election, the Election Commission is targeting a 70% voter turnout.

To date, the country has seen nine by-elections with five state seats (four federal seats and three states elections) after claiming a stunning victory in GE14, with the turnout at all by-elections lower than GE14 figures.

If we were to look at elections that were held in the shadow of COVID-19, the Sabah state election recorded a voter turnout of 66.6 per cent, Melaka state election concluded with an 89.9 per cent turnout while the Sarawak state election saw 60.67 per cent voters cast their ballots.

Declining voter turnout may signal the root of a deeper problem within our democracy. It may suggest fewer citizens consider elections as the main instrument for decision-making and democratic representation.

But, this existential crisis also gives us an opportunity.

We have seen a rise in other forms of citizen activism (such as mass protests,) occupy movements and increased use of social media as a new platform of political engagement. Such a shift in the channels of political participation, from voting for traditional bodies of representation to new forms of democratic participation and representation, puts serious pressure on governments and the way traditional political parties function.

The Election Commission issued the state election SOP last week where it stated that ceramah, talks, physical campaigning and house-to-house visits will be allowed throughout the 14-day campaign period.

The seasoned elites may have it easier, coupled with seasoned machinery, whereas the young must mobilise their crowd, relying on their social networks to encourage voting behaviour, particularly among those unlikely to cast a ballot. A friend will probably do a better job than a political advertisement or a social media plea.

It will also test the pearls of wisdom of the young, whether the fundamental understanding of power separation between the federal government and state are clearly understood, and if the new political structure will take cognizance of Johoreans’ needs.

Would the young Malaysians return to the ballot box to prove the elites wrong? We can only tell you that when the sun rises on March 13th.

In a heterogeneous society like Malaysia, compounded with divisive political landscape, the need for a comprehensive political education is rather pressing. With this in mind, the young must be equipped with political judgment, apathy and literacy. There is no one way to deal with this.

The Future

Of course, we should not discount the youth and their power. But let’s be honest with ourselves: this election around youth votes would hardly cause any ripple, simply because as Zambia has shown that civic awareness must first be ingrained into them.

The old dictum that there are no true friends and permanent enemies has never been more true than in the case of Malaysian politics.

The would-be cobras saw ominous writings on the wall in Putrajaya; the same writing Prime Minister Ismail must quickly grasp: his days are numbered. And whenever he decides to call for GE15, he is doing it at his own peril.

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*Elviza Michele Kamal and Yom Nurul Akma are Malaysian political observers.