Dyana Sofya tipped to win in close fight for Teluk Intan

In the Teluk Intan by-election today, DAP and Pakatan Rakyat are expected to again deliver an embarrassing defeat to its opponent, the BN, albeit perhaps with a smaller majority.

Dyana Sofya's win, say analysts and observers, is guaranteed, despite factors that traditionally would not be in her favour: her youth, inexperience, and being a Malay contesting in a Chinese-majority seat.

"Dyana Sofya herself is obviously not ready to be a candidate and not matured enough. She still needs to be guided so much so that she is in essence (DAP national advisor) Lim Kit Siang personified," said political analyst Khoo Kay Peng.

However, the 27-year-old lawyer's age and skill gap in comparison with her opponent, political veteran Datuk Mah Siew Keong, is seen to be largely offset by a prevailing anti-establishment sentiment among voters, especially the majority of Chinese in the area.

"DAP still has the upper hand. Despite the huge disparity between the candidates, the anti-BN sentiment still prevails. We are not even talking about the 'Ubah' (changing of government) factor," Khoo said.

The Chinese make up 42% of the 60,000-odd electorate compared to Malays and Indians at 38% and 19% respectively. DAP won 85% of the Chinese votes the last time, and are expecting only a 5% drop at the most today.

DAP's decision to field Dyana Sofya, a daughter to an UMNO family, has been both hailed as brave and dismissed as a gimmick at the same time.

While the Opposition says it is walking the talk by breaking away from racial politics and ushering in a 'new Malaysia', its critics argue that DAP is only fielding a virtual unknown because it knows it will win, regardless who its candidate is.

It is also seen as a bid to fend off criticism that the party is anti-Malay and to strengthen its national presence in GE14, given that support from the Chinese appears to have almost reached a saturating point.

"They can win by the party logo itself, and this goes beyond Dyana Sofya, and is a projection of broader issues. It goes beyond the strength of the candidate," another political analyst said.

For 53-year-old Mah, a local boy and two-time Teluk Intan MP, the stakes are even higher as he is the leader of a flailing component party within BN. His Gerakan party only won one MP seat in the last general election.

"The future of Gerakan is at stake," said a party insider, who knows all too well that this phrase has often been repeated in recent years after the poor showing of the once-proud party.

Despite being regarded as a capable leader, losing Teluk Intan in his home turf would mean Mah would have a hard time continuing his political career smoothly.

That is perhaps why Gerakan and BN had gone all out to the ground and hold between 20-30 small-scaled events. It can be said that Mah worked twice as hard as DAP, which holds only half as many ceramahs and walkabouts a day during the two week-long campaign period.

As the Chinese votes are regarded a 'lost cause' and Malay voters are largely still loyal to BN, one of the key components to the BN strategy this time is to woo the 'kingmakers' in the Indian community.

They hope to gain some 60% support, although they only got some 40% the last time. Observers expect this number to go up in BN's favour due to the amount of 'goodies' that are being promised and given out.

Gerakan's main enemy is its presence in BN itself. Voters have admitted that they prefer a local who can work and bring development, but their resentment towards the BN umbrella often overshadows whatever election promises provided in the candidate's manifesto.

If Dyana Sofya's campaign hinges on her message of idealism in politics, then Mah's would be about being realistic. Both have played the underdog but both have kept their predictions close to their chests, especially DAP.

Dyana Sofya's manifesto discusses big issues and national concerns ranging from the Goods and Services Tax and youth and women empowerment. But her manifesto has been criticised for lacking substance, while Mah's details the exact developmental projects he would bring to locals.

Mah has the advantage to fulfill his pledges by virtue of being in the ruling coalition, which would provide him the funding he needs. He has also been promised a ministership should he win, giving him an edge over Dyana Sofya.

All these make it a tough toe-to-toe contest for the rookie. She is not expected to retain the over 7,000 votes the late Seah Leong Peng garnered when he defeated Mah in GE13.

At 5pm today, the Election Commission was expecting some 70% to 80% turnout out of the 59,927 constituents to cast their votes. The numbers game begins as the ballot papers are counted.

Those who have been observing this by-election closely have noted that reaching out to some 6,000 outstation voters, mainly younger voters, is crucial for DAP to land its victory.

Academics feel that the voting trend of this by-election would not veer much from the results of last year’s GE13. For the Teluk Intan electorate, a majority of them are aged over 30 and are more likely set in their votes.

National issues such as GST, hudud and all those being discussed in the media would matter very little when it comes to each and every vote here, say analysts as well.

A few academics have posited that a turnout of 65% would spell a loss for DAP but anything above that is a victory. Even a 5% increase from that could mean DAP bringing home a 3,000-plus majority.