AI Brief
- G7 foreign ministers meet in Paris to assess if US midterm results will impact Washington's policies on Ukraine, the Middle East, and allied relations.
- Ukraine remains a top agenda item, with G7 aiming to sustain pressure on Russia and mobilise further support amid concerns over air-defence shortages.
- Discussions are expected on Iran and Lebanon, highlighting differences between Paris and Washington over security arrangements in southern Lebanon.
PARIS: A G7 foreign ministers gathering in Paris on Monday will provide the first opportunity for Washington's allies to gauge whether a US midterm defeat for President Donald Trump alters the administration's approach to Ukraine, the Middle East and ties with its closest partners, four G7 diplomats said.
The diplomats signalled the Democrats' gains could narrow the White House's room for manoeuvre but warned against expecting a return to traditional US multilateralism while foreign policy remains very much under Trump's control.
The meeting, moved at short notice from Marseille to Paris for security reasons after weeks of protests across France, will see US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, viewed as a potential 2028 presidential contender, make his first appearance before allies since the elections.
Other than France, the G7 includes Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, as well as the European Union. Ministers from Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, South Korea and Brazil are also attending.
With Ukraine top of the agenda, the G7 ministerial comes ahead of trilateral discussions on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine, Russia and the United States. Officials from France, Britain, Germany, NATO and the European Commission are also aiming to be in the Emirati capital, although they are not expected to take part in the trilateral format.
In a sign of friction among Europeans, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni warned on November 5 that Europe risks becoming irrelevant in efforts to end the war in Ukraine if member states continue pursuing separate diplomatic tracks rather than agreeing on a common representative and strategy, an issue that is likely to come up at the G7.
Diplomats painted a sombre picture of the situation in Ukraine. While the front had largely stabilised, making major breakthroughs unlikely, they warned that Russia had shifted tactics toward systematically targeting energy infrastructure in an effort to trigger a nationwide winter blackout.
Shortages of Patriot interceptors and other air-defence systems were Kyiv's most urgent military vulnerability and they said one objective of the G7 meeting would be to sustain pressure on Russia while mobilising additional military, financial and energy support for Ukraine.
Iran is also expected to feature prominently in discussions. Washington's G7 allies have repeatedly voiced scepticism over the war and fear further US military action could worsen rather than resolve the crisis.
The talks could also expose differences between Paris and Washington over Lebanon.
France is pushing for discussions on a new UN-backed security framework to replace current arrangements in southern Lebanon and has floated options including a French-Italian international force.
While French officials privately acknowledge US reluctance to embrace some of those ideas, diplomats said the G7 offers an opportunity for the allies to narrow differences as the expiry of existing arrangements at the end of the year draws nearer.
