How great will Gerakan Harapan Baru be?

According to Assoc Prof Datuk Dr Mohammad Agus Yusoff, a politics lecturer of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), there is only one sole reason for this move; that they are frustrated and enraged with the clerics planning to “cleanse” the party off the progressive pack.

This progressive group is of the opinion that PAS is no longer a ‘PAS for all’, but instead a heavily Islamist party.

Mohammad Agus added that based on his observation, without this progressive group, there are no PAS leaders who seem to be close to the rakyat anymore, and who truly understand the current issues of the country, such as the Felda and GST issues, the 1MDB debacle and others.

Apart from that, Mohammad Agus argued that we have to look closely into the history, especially the scenario in 1978 when PAS actually split and Berjasa won. In 1990, UMNO too went through a split, and PAS won.

The question is, can Gerakan Harapan Baru sustain? Based on history, it is rather difficult for a splinter party to sustain. Mohammad Agus gave the examples of Berjasa, Hamim and S46 that did not last long.

With this in mind, however, Mohammad Agus is of the opinion that there is plenty of room for Gerakan Harapan baru to appeal to the high-spirited middle-class and youth who want a change in the political landscape. This optimism is also due to the predicaments faced by the current UMNO leadership, which can be an advantage to the new party in getting the rakyat’s support.

In spite of that, Mohammad Agus believe that GHB will still have to face four major challenges in the early stages.

Firstly, the timing was a little off. GHB was established right after the PAS party elections, and plus it was a party started by those who lost.

Second of all, the party should not have been launched in areas where PAS is strong. GHB mostly spoke to the rakyat in Kelantan, PAS' heartland.

Mohammad Agus suggested that it should have been launched somewhere outside of Kelantan, or other Malay-centric areas. Sabah or Sarawak would have been good choices.

Thirdly, GHB’s leaders each have their strengths, however, they are not without controversies and baggage.

Finally, and possibly the most important factor, is GHB’s financial resources. According to Mohammad Agus, without strong financial backing, it will be difficult for GHB to sustain, and that stamina will run out without enough resources.