The people of Teluk Intan will decide today who their new MP will be as they start casting their votes, after an intense two week-long campaign that started off with courteous conduct but ended in below the belt attacks in the parliamentary by-election held in Perak.

Among over 60,000 registered voters will choose between the Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Datuk Mah Siew Keong and DAP's Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud in a toe-to-toe fight that analyst say is only slightly tipped in Opposition’s favour.

Mah, 53, is a two-term parliamentarian and assemblyman in the area, a former deputy minister and the current Gerakan president while Dyana Sofya is a 27-year-old lawyer and former political secretary of DAP advisor Lim Kit Siang.

Mah, a local, is expected to cast his vote at 9am in SMK Sultan Abdul Aziz.

Dyana Sofya, however, is not a voter in Teluk Intan though DAP’s Pasir Bedamar state assemblyman Terence Naidu is voting in this by-election.

The previous MPs

The Teluk Intan by-election was triggered following the death of former DAP MP, Seah Leong Peng due to cancer on May 1.

In the 13th General Election last year, Seah defeated Mah and independent K. Moralingam with a majority of 7,313 votes. Mah held the Teluk Intan seat in the 1999 and 2005 general elections before losing it to DAP's M. Manogaran in 2008.

The Chinese comprise the largest group of voters in at 42% (25,310), followed by Malays (23,301) at 38% and Indians at 19% (11,648).

Crucial factors: Voter turnout, Indians

Voter turnout is key in this by-election, as pundits do not expect the voting trend of the Chinese, Malays and Indians to change too much. The majority of the Chinese voted DAP last time around while the majority of Malays voted for BN.

Analysts are certain that a turnout of 65% and below would spell a loss for DAP, and that’s why the Pakatan Rakyat has been trying hard to call home an estimated 6,000 (10%) of those outstation. But a 70% turnout for DAP, can already mean a comfortable win.

Last year, voter turnout was at an unprecedented 80% and if that drops drastically, DAP will likely see a dip in their majority in votes.

While DAP is banking on the younger voters, mainly Chinese but Malays as well, to return in the semi-urban but mostly rural constituency that has more middle and older voters, BN is hoping to gain more votes from the Indians.

The Indian voters, who only gave about 40% support, are expected to swing BN’s way with a target of 60%.

The Election Commission (EC) expects to announce the results as early as 9pm tonight after the tallying of votes is completed at the SMK Abdul Rahman Talib, with about 80% turnout from the 59,927 who are eligible to vote.

Dirty campaign

The Teluk Intan campaign, which started on May 19 after nomination, had already picked up quickly due to the candidacy of Dyana Sofya, who was accorded an extraordinary amount of attention due to her being one of the few Malays in the predominantly Chinese party and born to an UMNO family,

DAP's decision to field a Malay in a predominantly Chinese was is seen as an attempt by DAP to shed its Chinese-centric image, after it won only 25% of the 23,391 Malay votes in last year's election.

However, the initial boost for Pakatan Rakyat fizzled out as the attacks against Dyana Sofya starting coming in, including fake bikini photos and sexist remarks on her good looks.

If Dyana Sofya wins, she will be DAP's first Malay female MP, one of the youngest MPs and only the third Malay parliamentarian in the current seating.

If Mah wins, he is set to take up a ministerial position as was announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak just two days ago. Mah has repeatedly refuted accusations that he would accept a ‘backdoor’ senatorship if he loses, saying he would “take full responsibility” over it.

Dyana Sofya’s campaign manifesto has criticised as being too focused on national issues such as rising cost of living, Goods and Services Tax (GST) and women and youth empowerment.

Mah, in his election manifesto, had promised development including making Teluk Intan a tourism hub, and agro-based industry.

Polling stations

There are 37 polling stations in Teluk Intan with 120 polling streams.

Nineteen of them are located at the Chinese majority state constituency of Pasir Bedamar and 18 being predominantly Malay centre under the Changkat Jong constituency.

The atmosphere at the Kampung Bahagia, Taman Cicely, Kampung Banjar, Pasir Bedamar polling centres in the Changkat Jong is expected to be more heated. These are among the biggest centres, with equally strong support for both BN and DAP.

The polling centres with the most voters, at 4088, is Taman Seri Setia in Pasir Bedamar and the least is Sungai Temah at only 65.

Early voting four days ago by police and military personnel saw 95.61% or 392, of the 410 registered early voters casting their ballots.

Among the highlights during the Teluk Intan by-election campaign:

* Pictures of a woman in a bikini, alleged to be Dyana Sofya, started to circulate early on in the campaign. It was later confirmed to be those of a Filipino actress Pauline Luna.

* Vandalism of campaign posters of both candidates appear, ‘Bodoh’ for Mah and ‘Babi’ for Dyana Sofya.

* DAP accuses BN of hacking its phone line being used to assist outstation voters

* Police confirm 18 reports lodge and five of them under investigation, among them a case of BN campaigners being assaulted by a man claiming they were trying to steal his mangoes.

* BN claims to have found 150 DAP members who wanted to ‘crossover’ to the ruling coalition but was left red-faced when some of them denied being from DAP and one claims to be forced to don the BN t-shirt.

* BN leaders and even Pakatan leaders are accused of making sexist remarks, focusing on Dyana Sofya's looks.