XI Jinping is unlikely to abandon his "old friend" Vladimir Putin, even as the Russian leader's decision to send thousands more troops to Ukraine and his nuclear threats strain Beijing's "no limits" partnership with Moscow, experts said.
China will instead dig in on its awkward stance of calling for dialogue and peaceful resolution while refusing to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they said.
On Thursday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York that China would to stick to an "objective" and "fair" position.
Xi and Putin have grown increasingly close in recent years, bound by their mutual distrust of the West, and reaffirmed their partnership just days before Russia invaded Ukraine. But China has been careful not to provide any direct material support that could trigger Western sanctions against it.
Putin acknowledged those limits last week when the two met for the first time since the war began, in Uzbekistan, describing Xi as having questions and concerns about the Ukraine situation and praising him for his "balanced" position.
"I don't see how different any new position will be ... China doesn't support the war, it doesn't support conflict, that's been very clear from the beginning," said Henry Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization.
Russia says its actions in Ukraine are a "special operation" to degrade its neighbour's military capabilities and root out people it calls dangerous nationalists.
Although China probably hoped for a short war, Putin's battlefield moves in Ukraine - seeking to counter recent defeats - are unlikely to concern Beijing or change the substantive nature of the countries' relationship, analysts said. The governing factor remains geopolitics, including Beijing's competition with Washington.
Economic cooperation between the two giant neighbours is likely to grow as China reaps the benefits of more and cheaper energy supplies while Russia offsets losses from European Union bans.
"What matters most to Xi is that Putin does not fail or make a mess of the invasion that could cause collateral damage to China, mostly in the economic sphere," said Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London. "The basic driver behind Xi’s foreign policy is to put China first."
STAY OUT OF THE MESS
Official Chinese media provided little coverage of Putin's latest speech, even after it roiled global markets and drew condemnation from Western powers. The comments, however, were heavily discussed on China's Twitter-like Weibo social media, drawing a mix of shock and criticism that censors did not remove, as well as support.
Yuan Jingdong, an associate professor at the University of Sydney, who specializes in Chinese defence and foreign policy, said he expected China to continue treading the fine line of refraining from publicly criticising Russia or openly showing sympathy towards Ukraine, while also refraining - as best it can - from endorsing Putin's actions.
"Since Putin's national security adviser (was) in China when Putin made the announcement, there could be some reassurance from China to Russia of the importance of the bilateral relationship, but also clear indication of what Russia can realistically expect from China," he said.
"At this point, Beijing's option seems to be to stay out of the mess and growing danger Russia's invasion has led to," he said.
Reuters
Thu Sep 22 2022
Xi and Putin have grown increasingly close in recent years, bound by their mutual distrust of the West, and reaffirmed their partnership just days before Russia invaded Ukraine. - REUTERS
'No one will win a trade war,' China says after Trump tariff threat
Donald Trump says he would impose the tariffs until China stops the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the United States.
What has caused Pakistan's deadly clashes between police and supporters of Imran Khan?
Topping the demands of Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party is the release of all its leaders, including Khan, who has been jailed on a series of corruption charges since August 2023.
One woman or girl killed every 10 minutes by intimate partner or family member - UN
The report highlights that "60 per cent of all female homicides" are committed by "people closely related to them".
Sweden urges Chinese ship to return for undersea cable investigation
Two subsea cables, one linking Finland and Germany and the other connecting Sweden to Lithuania, were damaged in less than 24 hours.
[COLUMNIST] Building more highways won’t solve traffic congestion - reducing demand will
It is clear that adding more lanes and highways doesn't work, because we are still attempting the same approach to solve the issue.
Hyundai to invest RM2.16 bil in Malaysia through strategic partnership with INOKOM
This investment includes efforts to upgrade INOKOM's existing assembly capacity to meet Hyundai's automotive needs.
‘C4Cinta’ sets record as highest-grossing Malaysian Tamil film
'C4Cinta', directed by young filmmaker Karthik Shamalan, has set a new benchmark in Malaysian Tamil cinema.
Man charged with mother's murder, storing body in freezer
The court denied bail and scheduled case mention on Feb 7 for the submission of forensic, autopsy, and chemist reports.
Abolition of examination in schools to reduce pressure on pupils - Fadhlina
The classroom assessment approach offers a much more interesting learning ecosystem, says Fadhlina Sidek.
Google, Meta urge Australia to delay bill on social media ban for children
Google and Meta says the government should wait for the results of an age-verification trial before going ahead.
Judge tosses Trump 2020 election case after prosecutors' request
It represents a big legal victory for Donald Trump, who won the Nov. 5 US election and is set to return to office on Jan. 20.
DHL plane crash in Lithuania leaves authorities searching for answers
Rescue services said the plane hit the ground, split into pieces and slid over 100 metres (110 yards).
National squad to hold friendly matches for 2025 Indoor Hockey World Cup
The warm-up matches will involve matches against better ranked teams in the world, namely Austria (first) and Belgium (third).
G7 seeks unity on ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu
The United States, part of the G7, has rejected the ICC decision, with President Joe Biden describing it as outrageous.
Francissca Peter remembers Tan Sri Ahmad Nawab: A tribute to a musical legend
A legend who has influenced our music for decades, was one of the highlights of my career, says Francissca Peter.
TikTok decision coming soon as Jan. 19 divestment deadline looms
Judges are reviewing TikTok's challenge to a law requiring ByteDance to sell its US assets by Jan. 19 or face a ban.
Lebanese sources: Biden, Macron set to announce Israel-Hezbollah truce
In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said, "We're close" but "nothing is done until everything is done".
PM meets chaebol tycoon to attract more FDI to Malaysia
Chaebols are prominent figures from South Korea's family-owned conglomerates.
Govt won't allow non-citizen vehicles to enjoy RON95 subsidy - Economy Ministry
The implementation of the RON95 subsidy in 2025 is expected to provide savings of RM3.6 billion to government expenditure.
Ringgit opens lower as greenback gains ground
Dr Mohd Afzanizam says the market responded positively to news of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent heading the US Treasury Department.