AI Brief
- ASEAN met in Laos to address the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, where efforts to resolve the conflict and promote dialogue with the junta have been stalled, causing frustration among major ASEAN members.
- ASEAN aims to finalize a code of conduct with China on the South China Sea amid rising tensions, especially between China and the Philippines.
- The ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting will be followed by two major summits involving top diplomats from global powers, including the US, EU, China, and Russia, to discuss international issues such as the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, food security, climate change, and trade protectionism.
The meeting of the foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will be followed by two summits in Laos on Saturday set to address key global issues that will be attended by officials from the United States, European Union, Japan, China, Russia and more.
ASEAN's foreign ministers will discuss so far fruitless efforts to end a crippling conflict that has morphed into a civil war in military-run Myanmar that the United Nations says has displaced 2.6 million people.
ASEAN's biggest members, including Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia, are frustrated by the junta's unwillingness to honour its commitment to dialogue, which has tested the bloc's credibility and viability of a peace plan agreed months after a 2021 coup.
It is unclear what progress, if any, Laos has made as chair of the bloc in furthering previous chair Indonesia's outreach to Myanmar's generals and its armed opposition.
Sidharto Suryodipuro, a senior Indonesian foreign ministry official, said the issue was complex and would take time to resolve, with ASEAN chair Laos active in trying to forge peace.
"Diplomatic efforts can't finish overnight," he told a briefing last week.
"Progress is working slowly ... those efforts are done discreetly. Under the Laos chairmanship, the special envoy is approaching many parties."
TENSIONS AT SEA
ASEAN is expected to push for the finalisation of a protracted code of conduct with Beijing on the South China Sea, an idea hatched in 2002 and in motion since 2017, with years spent agreeing on conditions for negotiating its contents.
There is renewed urgency amid persistent confrontations between Beijing and the U.S.-backed Philippines around disputed reefs inside Manila's exclusive economic zone, with Manila and Washington accusing China's coast guard of hostile actions.
China has insisted Philippine vessels are encroaching on its sovereign territory and has accused Manila of deliberate provocations.
The Philippines will in Laos propose the creation of an ASEAN Coast Guard Forum between its members to enable dialogue and law enforcement, according to its senior diplomat Theresa Lazaro, a plan likely to rile China.
Indonesia is hopeful a code can be concluded by 2026. Some security analysts doubt a binding or enforceable text can be achieved, however, with some ASEAN states insisting it be based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
China says it backs a code, but does not recognise a 2016 arbitral ruling that said its claim to most of the South China Sea had no basis under UNCLOS, to which Beijing is a signatory.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will, according to a statement, press for international law to be adhered to in the South China Sea, a conduit for $3 trillion in annual trade, during summits at the weekend that will include Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
They will be joined by counterparts of Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and Russia, among others, at Saturday's East Asia Summit and the security-focused ASEAN Regional Forum.
The summits are expected to discuss issues such as the war in Gaza, the conflict in Ukraine, food security, climate change, trade protectionism and North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
