Reuters
Sun Nov 29 2020
An Iranian flag flutters in front of the United Nations headquarters in Vienna June 17, 2014. REUTERS/Heinz-Peter Bader/File Photo
VIENNA:A 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is being eroded and efforts to revive the pact face a new challenge with the killing of Tehran's top nuclear scientist.
The accord's restrictions on Iran's atomic work had one objective: to extend the "breakout time" for Tehran to produce enough fissile material for a bomb, if it decided to make one, to at least a year from about two to three months.
Iran maintains that it has never sought nuclear weapons and never would. It says its nuclear work only has civilian aims.
Tehran began breaching the deal's curbs last year in a step-by-step response to President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the deal in May 2018 and the reimposition of US sanctions.
This has shortened the breakout time but reports by the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which polices the deal, indicate that Iran is not moving ahead with its nuclear work as fast as it could.
European states have sought to save the nuclear deal, pressing Tehran to comply even as Washington has tightened sanctions, and holding out hopes of a change in US policy once President-elect Joe Biden takes office on Jan. 20.
Biden was part of the US administration under Barack Obama that negotiated the 2015 deal.
WHAT HAS IRAN DONE TILL NOW?
Iran has contravened many of the deal's restrictions but is still cooperating with the IAEA and granting inspectors access under one of the most intrusive nuclear verification regimes imposed on any nation.
* Enriched uranium - The deal limits Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium to 202.8 kg, a fraction of the more than eight tonnes it possessed before the deal. The limit was breached last year. The IAEA report in November put the stockpile at 2,442.9 kg.
* Enrichment level - The deal caps the fissile purity to which Iran can refine uranium at 3.67%, far below the 20% achieved before the deal and below the weapons-grade level of 90%. Iran breached the 3.67% cap in July 2019 and the enrichment level has remained steady at up to 4.5% since then.
* Centrifuges - The deal allows Iran to produce enriched uranium using about 5,000 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at its underground Natanz plant, which was built to house more than 50,000. It can operate small numbers of more advanced models above ground without accumulating enriched uranium. Iran had roughly 19,000 installed centrifuges before the deal.
In 2019, the IAEA said Iran had begun enrichment with advanced centrifuges at an above-ground pilot plant at Natanz. Since then, Iran started moving three cascades, or clusters, of advanced centrifuges to the underground plant. In November, the IAEA said Iran had fed uranium hexafluoride gas feedstock into the first of those underground cascades.
* Fordow - The deal bans enrichment at Fordow, a site Iran secretly built inside a mountain and that was exposed by Western intelligence services in 2009. Centrifuges are allowed there for other purposes, like producing stable isotopes. Iran now has 1,044 IR-1 centrifuges enriching there.
HOW CLOSE IS IRAN TO HAVING A BOMB?
The breaches lengthened the breakout time but estimates still vary. Many diplomats and nuclear experts say the starting point of one year is conservative and Iran would need longer.
David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector who tends to have a hawkish position on Iran, estimated in November that Iran's breakout time could be "as short as 3.5 months", although this presumes Iran would use 1,000 advanced centrifuges that were removed under the deal.
WHAT MORE WOULD IRAN NEED TO DO?
If Iran accumulated sufficient fissile material, it would need to assemble a bomb and probably one small enough to be carried by its ballistic missiles. How long that would take exactly is unclear, but stockpiling enough fissile material is widely seen as the biggest hurdle in producing a weapon.
US intelligence agencies and the IAEA believe Iran once had a nuclear weapons programme that it halted. There is evidence suggesting Iran obtained a design for a nuclear weapon and carried out various types of work relevant to making one.
Tehran continues to grant the IAEA access to its declared nuclear facilities and allow snap inspections elsewhere.
Iran and the IAEA resolved a standoff this year that had lasted several months over access to two suspected former sites.Enable GingerCannot connect to Ginger Check your internet connection
or reload the browserDisable in this text fieldEditEdit in GingerEdit in Ginger
COP29 climate summit draft proposes rich countries pay $250 billion per year
The draft finance deal criticised by both developed and developing nations.
Bomb squad sent to London's Gatwick Airport after terminal evacuation
This was following the discovery of a suspected prohibited item in luggage.
Kelantan urges caution amidst northeast monsoon rains
Kelantan has reminded the public in the state to refrain from outdoor activities with the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon season.
Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern receives UN leadership award
Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern was given a global leadership award by the United Nations Foundation.
ICC'S arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant an apt decision - PM
The decision of the ICC to issue arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant is apt, said Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
KTMB provides two additional ETS trains for Christmas, school holidays
KTMB will provide two additional ETS trains for the KL Sentral-Padang Besar route and return trips in conjunction with the holidays.
BNM'S international reserves rise to USD118 bil as at Nov 15, 2024
Malaysia's international reserves rose to US$118.0 billion as at Nov 15, 2024, up from US$117.6 billion on Oct 30, 2024.
Findings by dark energy researchers back Einstein's conception of gravity
The findings announced are part of a years-long study of the history of the cosmos focusing upon dark energy.
NRES responds to Rimbawatch press release on COP29
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability (NRES) wishes to offer the following clarifications to the issues raised.
Online Safety Bill and Anti-Cyberbullying Laws must carefully balance rights and protections
The Online Safety Advocacy Group (OSAG) stands united with people in Malaysia in the fight against serious online harms.
Malaysia's inflation at 1.9 pct in Oct 2024 - DOSM
Malaysia's inflation rate for October 2024 has increased to 1.9 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent in September this year.
Saudi Arabia showcases Vision 2030 goals at Airshow China 2024
For the first time, Saudi Arabia is participating in the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition held recently in Zhuhai.
King Charles' coronation cost GBP 71mil, govt accounts show
The coronation of Britain's King Charles cost taxpayers GBP72 million (US$90 million), official accounts have revealed.
Couple and associate charged with trafficking 51.9 kg of meth
A married couple and a man were charged in the Magistrate's Court here today with trafficking 51.974 kilogrammes of Methamphetamine.
PDRM to consult AGC in completing Teoh Beng Hock investigation
The police may seek new testimony from existing witnesses for additional insights into the investigation of Teoh Beng Hock's death.
Thai court rejects petition over ex-PM Thaksin's political influence
Thailand's Constitutional Court rejects a petition seeking to stop Thaksin Shinawatra from interfering in the running the Pheu Thai party.
Abidin takes oath of office as Sungai Bakap assemblyman
The State Assemblyman for Sungai Bakap, Abidin Ismail, was sworn in today at the State Assembly building, Lebuh Light.
UPNM cadet officer charged with injuring junior, stomping on him with spike boots
A cadet officer at UPNM pleaded not guilty to a charge of injuring his junior by stomping on the victim's stomach with spike boots.
How Indian billionaire Gautam Adani's alleged bribery scheme took off and unraveled
The indictment was unsealed on Nov. 20, prompting a $27 billion plunge in Adani Group companies' market value.
Elon Musk blasts Australia's planned ban on social media for children
Several countries have already vowed to curb social media use by children through legislation, but Australia's policy could become one of the most stringent.