LONDON: The Japanese yen fell past the psychological 135 line to levels against the U.S. dollar last seen in October 1998.
The scale of the move has repercussions for the domestic economy as yen-based import prices are surging at a record annual pace, heaping pressure on household balance sheets.
The Bank of Japan and the Japanese government on Friday gave a rare joint statement that they may intervene if weakness persists.
So far the fallout from the weakening yen has been minimal for broader financial markets, but that could change if the sell-off accelerates.
Below are key questions about what a sliding yen means for Japan's economy and international markets:
WHY IS THE YEN WEAK?
The yen, the third most-traded currency globally, fell as low as 135.22 yen after starting 2022 at 115. With the dollar up more than 16% so far this year, the yen is on track for its biggest annual drop since 2013.
The weakness primarily stems from widening interest rate differentials between Japan and elsewhere.
While the rest of the world, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, is raising rates aggressively to tame soaring inflation, the BOJ has doubled down on its easy policy stance.
The gap between Japanese 10-year government bond yields and those in the United States is 293 basis points -- a near 3-1/2-year high -- while the gap with German yields is at 8-year highs.
WILL AUTHORITIES INTERVENE?
They certainly say they might.
On Friday, Japan's government and central bank said they were concerned by the recent sharp falls, the strongest warning to date that Tokyo could intervene.
The yen quickly bounced away from its two-decade lows, but not everyone is convinced actual intervention is likely.
Given the economy's reliance on exports, Japan has historically focused on arresting sharp yen rises and taken a hands-off approach to yen weakness, which is more difficult because yen-buying requires Japan to draw on limited foreign reserves.
The last time Japan intervened to support its currency was 1998, when the Asian financial crisis triggered rapid capital outflows from the region. Before that, Tokyo intervened to counter yen falls in 1991-1992.
Currency intervention is costly and could easily fail given the difficulty of influencing the yen's value in global foreign exchange markets.
WHAT CAN STOP THE DECLINE?
A marked improvement in growth prospects as the country reopens its borders post-COVID and higher inflation could alter the BOJ's dovish stance.
Japan's core consumer prices in April were 2.1% higher than a year earlier, exceeding the BOJ's 2% inflation target for the first time in seven years.
"The yen's fall could stop if the BOJ changes tack and becomes hawkish," said Francesca Fornasari, head of currency solutions at Insight Investments.
Any sign that rates outside of Japan are peaking might also prompt a relief rally. There are no signs of that yet though, with U.S. rates set to peak at 3.5% in mid-2023, according to futures markets.
DOES A WEAKER YEN BOOST THE ECONOMY?
The yen has weakened back towards recent 7-year lows versus the Chinese yuan and is hitting new multi-year lows against the Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar, which should provide some relief for Japan's widening trade deficit.
Some like John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, say currency weakness is crucial for Japan's economy to maintain its competitiveness as a secure source of supply-chain diversification.
The yen's decline also boosts the attractiveness of its stock market among foreign investors who consider it undervalued versus European and U.S. markets. Japanese stocks have outperformed rivals in 2022, although they are still down as investors globally dump riskier assets.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR FX MARKETS?
The yen has long been the currency of choice for investors undertaking so-called carry trades, which involve borrowing in a low-yielding currency like the yen to invest in higher yielding currencies like U.S. or Canadian dollars.
A strategy borrowing in yen and investing in an equal basket of U.S., Australian and Canadian dollars would have yielded more than 13% so far in 2022, according to Refinitiv data.
But the speed of the yen's drop and questions about policymaker intervention is fuelling unease among investors, especially with short bets against the yen near six-month highs.
Further volatility and weakness could undermine its appeal as a funding currency.
WHAT ABOUT DOMESTIC INVESTORS?
The yen's weakness puts Japanese investors in a bind.
Yields are high and rising, which makes foreign bonds much more attractive. But that also means the cost of FX hedging is climbing.
So Japanese investors can often only capture the higher yields if they buy foreign bonds unhedged.
But with the yen at such depressed levels it is difficult for investors to stomach such currency risk, such as the yen appreciating. Even a modest move back to 115-120, where we were 4 months ago, would eat up years worth of yield advantage.
Reuters
Mon Jun 13 2022
A monitor showing the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is seen through the U.S. and Japanese national flags at the foreign exchange trading company Gaitame.com in Tokyo, Japan June 13, 2022 REUTERS/Issei Kato
How quickly can Trump's Musk-led efficiency panel slash US regulations?
Moves by Trump and his appointees to eliminate existing rules will be met with legal challenges, as many progressive groups and Democratic officials have made clear.
2TM: Consultations on PTPTN loans, admission to IPTA at MOHE booth
Consultations on PTPTN loans and admission to IPTA are among services provided at the Higher Education Ministry booth.
Kampung Tanjung Kala residents affected by flooded bridge every time it rains heavily
Almost 200 residents from 60 homes in Kampung Tanjung Kala have ended up stuck when their 200-metre (m) long concrete bridge flooded.
COP29 climate summit draft proposes rich countries pay $250 billion per year
The draft finance deal criticised by both developed and developing nations.
Bomb squad sent to London's Gatwick Airport after terminal evacuation
This was following the discovery of a suspected prohibited item in luggage.
Kelantan urges caution amidst northeast monsoon rains
Kelantan has reminded the public in the state to refrain from outdoor activities with the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon season.
Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern receives UN leadership award
Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern was given a global leadership award by the United Nations Foundation.
ICC'S arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant an apt decision - PM
The decision of the ICC to issue arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant is apt, said Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
KTMB provides two additional ETS trains for Christmas, school holidays
KTMB will provide two additional ETS trains for the KL Sentral-Padang Besar route and return trips in conjunction with the holidays.
BNM'S international reserves rise to USD118 bil as at Nov 15, 2024
Malaysia's international reserves rose to US$118.0 billion as at Nov 15, 2024, up from US$117.6 billion on Oct 30, 2024.
Findings by dark energy researchers back Einstein's conception of gravity
The findings announced are part of a years-long study of the history of the cosmos focusing upon dark energy.
NRES responds to Rimbawatch press release on COP29
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability (NRES) wishes to offer the following clarifications to the issues raised.
Online Safety Bill and Anti-Cyberbullying Laws must carefully balance rights and protections
The Online Safety Advocacy Group (OSAG) stands united with people in Malaysia in the fight against serious online harms.
Malaysia's inflation at 1.9 pct in Oct 2024 - DOSM
Malaysia's inflation rate for October 2024 has increased to 1.9 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent in September this year.
Saudi Arabia showcases Vision 2030 goals at Airshow China 2024
For the first time, Saudi Arabia is participating in the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition held recently in Zhuhai.
King Charles' coronation cost GBP 71mil, govt accounts show
The coronation of Britain's King Charles cost taxpayers GBP72 million (US$90 million), official accounts have revealed.
Couple and associate charged with trafficking 51.9 kg of meth
A married couple and a man were charged in the Magistrate's Court here today with trafficking 51.974 kilogrammes of Methamphetamine.
PDRM to consult AGC in completing Teoh Beng Hock investigation
The police may seek new testimony from existing witnesses for additional insights into the investigation of Teoh Beng Hock's death.
Thai court rejects petition over ex-PM Thaksin's political influence
Thailand's Constitutional Court rejects a petition seeking to stop Thaksin Shinawatra from interfering in the running the Pheu Thai party.
Abidin takes oath of office as Sungai Bakap assemblyman
The State Assemblyman for Sungai Bakap, Abidin Ismail, was sworn in today at the State Assembly building, Lebuh Light.