AS Myanmar’s military grip weakens amid violence and displacement, ASEAN faces pressure to mediate in a crisis that challenges its principles and unity.

Since the military returned to power in Myanmar in 2021, attacks have increased in northern Shan, Mandalay, and Rakhine State. The conflict has intensified, causing casualties, refugees in Maungdaw Township, and a large wave of refugees to Bangladesh after the military junta's attacks, especially in Rakhine State.

The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) says that 3.1 million people have been displaced by the conflict between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed organisations and People's Defence Forces (PDF), the armed wing of the government in Myanmar.

The conflict between the military junta and opposition groups continues. Meanwhile, the military junta's influence in many areas is diminishing.

One report says the junta controls less than half of Myanmar's territory, and this has led to more attacks. From January to April 2024, there were 816 military bombings and airstrikes in Myanmar, which have caused significant civilian casualties and further destabilised the region.

ASEAN’s limited role

The Myanmar crisis raises questions about ASEAN's role in resolving the conflict. It is difficult for ASEAN because it is committed to a non-intervention policy in its members' domestic affairs.

Meanwhile, international pressure for ASEAN to be more proactive in resolving the Myanmar conflict has failed. Although ASEAN has encouraged Myanmar to become more democratic, the military is still in control.

In 2023, Indonesia became chair of ASEAN, providing an opportunity for diplomatic engagement to resolve the crisis in Myanmar. However, there has been little progress until Indonesia's role as ASEAN chair ends in 2024 and is replaced by Laos.

Indonesia’s role

The Indonesian government has successfully persuaded the Myanmar military government to allow humanitarian assistance to victims of the conflict.

However, diplomacy still has a long way to go in upholding humanity, human rights, and democracy. Indonesia can keep working to bring peace to Myanmar.

Indonesia has had good relations with Myanmar, and even though the international community has criticised Myanmar for the military takeover, Indonesia has still respected the regime and encouraged democratic transformation.

It seems that Indonesia and other ASEAN countries will not succeed in their democratic transition process because the military and pro-democracy groups are still in dispute. Some paramilitary groups want democracy but use violence. Meanwhile, others want to break away from Myanmar.

Indonesia can help Myanmar by sharing its experience of moving from a military to a civilian government in 1998 to promote democracy.


The struggle for peace

Indonesia is one of the key players in Myanmar's peace process, not only because Indonesia chaired ASEAN in 2023-2024 but also because Indonesia is committed to world peace.

Indonesia is engaged in diplomatic efforts and uses non-megaphone diplomacy that eschews publicity.

Since the beginning of 2023, when Indonesia became chairman of ASEAN, it had held up to 60 meetings in four months with various parties in Myanmar.

These efforts are Indonesia's commitment, through ASEAN, to continue promoting the achievement of peace in Myanmar according to the Five Consensus agreed upon by Myanmar leader and nine ASEAN members in 2021.

The Five Consensus, which includes cessation of violence, all-stakeholder dialogue, appointment of a special envoy, allowing humanitarian assistance, and opening access for ASEAN special envoys to meet with all interests in Myanmar, is a significant step towards peace in Myanmar.

However, after the agreement, violence returned, and the military junta also refused to attend ASEAN-initiated peace talks.

In addition, separatist and pro-democracy groups retaliated against the junta, leading to the humanitarian crisis in the country getting worse. The absence of other forces capable of counterbalancing the military regime has resulted in a prolonged crisis.

The lack of progress in resolving the crisis is a cause for concern.

ASEAN's role as a significant power in the region is also being criticised as it has been less vocal on the Myanmar issue. Although ASEAN developed the Five-Point Consensus, it has seen little implementation, with Myanmar’s ruling junta largely unresponsive to the bloc’s efforts.

Meanwhile, calls for reform in ASEAN's non-intervention policy are beginning to emerge.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said non-interference had contributed to ASEAN's inability to make effective decisions quickly, and suggested a move towards a new policy of constructive engagement or non-indifference.

Some commentators argue that non-interference actually might harm ASEAN.

Avoiding, delaying, and brushing issues aside behind non-interference becomes a comfortable refuge for ASEAN when faced with difficult challenges.

Looking ahead, ASEAN’s involvement in Myanmar will require sustained diplomatic efforts, creative solutions, and possibly a reassessment of its foundational policies.

ASEAN’s future role may include continued quiet diplomacy, support for humanitarian aid, and incremental measures to encourage dialogue between Myanmar’s conflicting parties.



Leni Winarni is the Head of International Relations Program an a senior researcher for ASEAN Study Center at the Universitas Sebelas Maret Surakarta, Indonesia.