With Lai Ching-Te elected as new president, what’s next for Taiwan?

TAIWAN's elections over the weekend saw voters pick Lai Ching-te as their next president despite China’s warnings of supporting his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The outcome clearly indicated the people’s desire to preserve Taiwan's autonomy and sovereignty, according to an analyst.

“It aligns with the general demands of the people, especially the younger segments of society, who identify themselves as Taiwanese first,” said Collins Chong, a foreign affairs and security analyst with the Centre for Civilisational Dialogue at Universiti Malaya.

In his victory speech, Lai conveyed that the election was a message to the international community, affirming Taiwan's commitment to democracy and opposition to authoritarianism.

He pledged to continue the foreign policy efforts of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, to maintain the status quo in the Strait.

"Under the principles of dignity and parity, we will use exchanges to replace obstructionism, dialogue to replace confrontation, and confidently pursue exchanges and cooperation with China,” said Lai.

While the results marked a historic third consecutive term for the DPP, Chong noted that Lai had secured fewer votes than Tsai.

He attributed this to persistent economic problems particularly affecting the country's youth, such as inflation, rising living costs, and unemployment.

Lai won 40.1 per cent of the presidential vote, surpassing competitors Hou Yuh-ih from the Kuomintang (KMT) party who garnered 33.49 per cent, and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) with 26.46 per cent.

“We have seen reduced seats for the DPP and now that KMT has a higher volume of seats in Parliament, moving forward, I think Lai will have a much more difficult time achieving policy alignment on major issues,” said Chong.

How the world reacted

Congratulations poured in from around the world in the hours after Lai was declared the winner.

China’s foreign ministry and its embassies globally condemned governments that congratulated Lai, which are seen as granting legitimacy to the DPP. They maintained that the "reunification" with Taiwan was still inevitable.

Taiwan has been self-governed since the 1940s, but Beijing claims the island as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve this.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the democratic system and electoral process of the island.

He added that Washington was committed to maintaining cross-Strait peace and stability, free from coercion and pressure.

However, when asked by reporters about Washington’s position on the elections, President Joe Biden stated that his country did not support Taiwan’s independence, in line with the one-China policy.

The EU welcomed the election and congratulated all voters who participated in the "democratic exercise,” but expressed concerns about growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and opposed any attempt to change the status quo.

Meanwhile, Japan congratulated Lai on his victory, acknowledging Taiwan as a "crucial partner" with whom Tokyo aimed to strengthen cooperation.

A cross-strait conflict on the cards?

In the run-up to the polls, China repeatedly denounced Lai as a “troublemaker” and “dangerous separatist”, warning that his win could trigger cross-strait conflict.

But Chong does not expect China to take action in the near future in light of current domestic turmoil, a declining economy and allegations of corruption within President Xi Jinping’s administration.

The nation would also need more time to consolidate its military capacity.

“Taiwan is the ultimate goal for China and the 2049 Chinese Dream,” he said. “Now is not really the best time for him to have this all-out venture of Taiwan, seeing the case of Ukraine, for example.”

Further action from Beijing would also depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, set to take place later this year.

“The prospect of Donald Trump returning would change the entire equation of Taiwan’s relations with both Beijing and Washington.

“So of course, Xi has all this in mind.”