AI Brief
- Most Taiwanese think a Chinese attack is unlikely in the next five years, though they worry about military drills.
- Many would fight back, but opinions are split on Taiwan's defense capabilities and US military support.
- Greater transparency on US-Taiwan security cooperation is needed to manage expectations.
Over the past five years or so, China's military has significantly ramped up its activities around Taiwan, which Beijing views as its own territory over the strong objections of the government in Taipei, and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.
The survey of around 1,200 people conducted last month by the Institute for National Defence and Security Research showed 61% of people think it was "unlikely or very unlikely" that China would attack Taiwan in the coming five years.
"Most people do not think China's territorial ambitions will manifest themselves in the form of attacking Taiwan," said Christina Chen, an INDSR researcher.
Taiwan's people are also concerned about other Chinese threats, including military drills and propaganda campaigns, she said.
"Most people see China's territorial ambitions as a serious threat," Chen said.
The poll presents a contrast to a warning by the head of U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, who said last year that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
"That means Taiwanese people are aware of the threat but remain calm and rational with the expectations of an imminent war," the INDSR said.
More than 67% of respondents to the poll said they would fight back if China attacked, but were split almost evenly on whether Taiwan's armed forces were capable of defending the island, half expressing confidence and half no confidence.
Lee Kuan-chen, another INDSR researcher, said Taiwan's military should continue to boost its defence capacity to build public trust.
The poll also showed a split in opinion on whether the United States would help defend Taiwan.
While some 74% believed the U.S. government was likely to "indirectly" help Taiwan by providing food, medical supplies and weapons, only 52% thought the U.S. military would dispatch its armed forces to intervene, the poll showed.
Lee said Taiwan's government should be more transparent about Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation.
"That way, people will not have expectations that are too high or too low on U.S. assistance," Lee said.
U.S. President Joe Biden has upset the Chinese government with comments that appeared to suggest the United States would defend Taiwan if it were attacked, a deviation from a long-held U.S. position of "strategic ambiguity".
