OSLO: The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced just three weeks before world leaders gather for a climate summit that scientists say could determine the future of the planet, one reason why prize watchers say this could be the year of Greta Thunberg.
The world's most prestigious political accolade will be unveiled on Oct. 8. While the winner often seems a total surprise, those who follow it closely say the best way to guess is to look at the global issues most likely to be on the minds of the five committee members who choose.
With the COP26 climate summit set for the start of November in Scotland, that issue could be global warming. Scientists paint this summit as the last chance to set binding targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for the next decade, vital if the world is to have hope of keeping temperature change below the 1.5 degree Celsius target to avert catastrophe.
That could point to Thunberg, the Swedish climate activist, who at 18 would be the second youngest winner in history by a few months, after Pakistan's Malala Yousafzai.
"The committee often wants to send a message. And this will be a strong message to send to COP26, which will be happening between the announcement of the award and the ceremony," Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Reuters.
Another big issue the committee may want to address is democracy and free speech. That could mean an award for a press freedom group, such as the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders, or for a prominent political dissident, such as exiled Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya or jailed Russian activist Alexei Navalny.
A win for a journalism advocacy group would resonate "with the large debate about the importance of independent reporting and the fighting of fake news for democratic governance," said Henrik Urdal, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
A Nobel for either Navalny or Tsikhanouskaya would be an echo of the Cold War, when peace and literature prizes were bestowed on prominent Soviet dissidents such as Andrei Sakharov and Alexander Solzhenitsyn.
Oddsmakers also tip groups such as the World Health Organization or the vaccine sharing body COVAX, which are directly involved in the global battle against COVID-19. But prize watchers say this could be less likely than might be assumed: the committee already cited the pandemic response last year, when it chose the U.N. World Food Programme.
While parliamentarians from any country can nominate candidates for the prize, in recent years the winner has tended to be a nominee proposed by lawmakers from Norway, whose parliament appoints the prize committee.
Norwegian lawmakers surveyed by Reuters have included Thunberg, Navalny, Tsikhanouskaya and the WHO on their lists.
SECRETS OF THE VAULT
The committee's full deliberations remain forever secret, with no minutes taken of discussions. But other documents, including this year's full list of 329 nominees, are kept behind an alarmed door protected by several locks at the Norwegian Nobel Institute, to be made public in 50 years.
Inside the vault, document folders line the walls: green for nominations, blue for correspondence.
It is a trove for historians seeking to understand how laureates emerge. The most recent documents made public are about the 1971 prize, won by Willy Brandt, chancellor of West Germany, for his moves to reduce East-West tension during the Cold War.
"The Europe you see today is basically the legacy of those efforts," librarian Bjoern Vangen told Reuters.
The documents reveal that one of the main finalists Brandt beat out for the prize was French diplomat Jean Monnet, a founder of the European Union. It would take another 41 years for Monnet's creation, the EU, to finally win the prize in 2012.
Reuters
Fri Oct 01 2021
16-year-old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg speaks at the 2019 United Nations Climate Action Summit at U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., September 23, 2019. - REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Astro AWANI's revamped English news website, AWANI International, launches on Oct 21
Astro AWANI's revamped English platform delivers in-depth global news and expert analysis to keep you informed on key developments.
Israeli strikes kill 33 people in Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza, medics say
Residents of Jabalia said Israeli tanks had reached the heart of the camp after pushing through suburbs and residential districts.
Liam Payne's ex-partner calls for media restraint after 'painful' death
Cheryl Tweedy used her statement to urge the media to remember they had a seven-year-old son, Bear, who could read the reports.
Analysts: Indonesia's strong MoF leadership team to boost investor confidence
Sri Mulyani Indrawati as head of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance is expected to instil confidence among investors.
Biden offers both a carrot and a stick to Israel as his term nears an end
Israel has frequently resisted US advice and has caused political difficulties for the Biden administration.
Putin says BRICS will generate most of global economic growth
Russian President Vladimir Putin will host a summit of the group in the city of Kazan on Oct. 22-24.
ISIS Malaysia's perspective of Budget 2025
An excellent rakyat-centric budget under the overarching principle of a caring and humane economy.
Budget 2025: Record increase in STR, SARA aid initiatives
The government will provide a significant boost to the Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) and Sumbangan Asas Rahmah (SARA) initiatives next year.
Budget 2025: EPF contributions to be made mandatory for foreign workers – PM Anwar
The government plans to make it compulsory for all non-citizen workers to contribute to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF).
What policies to expect from Indonesia's new President Prabowo
Prabowo will be open to foreign investment, his aide has said, such as by offering investors management of airports and sea ports.
Budget 2025: Govt allocates RM470 mil to empower women's participation in PMKS
The Women's Leadership Apprenticeship Program will be intensified as an effort to produce more female corporate personalities.
Israel sends more troops into north Gaza, deepens raid
Residents of Jabalia in northern Gaza said Israeli tanks had reached the heart of the camp, using heavy air and ground fire.
Indonesia ramps up security ahead of Prabowo's inauguration
Prabowo Subianto will be sworn in as Indonesia's president on Sunday with Vice President-elect, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, also taking office.
Immediate allocation of RM150 mil for local authorities, DID to tackle flash floods
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said this allocation is intended to address the recent flash floods that hit the capital and several major towns.
Budget 2025: Sabah, Sarawak to continue receiving among highest allocations - PM
Sabah and Sarawak continues to be prioritised under Budget 2025, with allocations of RM6.7 billion and RM5.9 billion respectively.
NFOF will be operational in November 2024 with funding of RM1 bil
PM Anwar Ibrahim said NFOF will support venture capital fund managers to invest in startup companies with RM300 million set aside for 2025.
Minimum wage to increase to RM1,700 effective Feb 1, 2025
The Progressive Wage Policy would be fully enforced next year with an allocation of RM200 million, benefiting 50,000 workers.
Bursa Malaysia ends higher on Budget 2025 optimism
The benchmark index, which opened 1.85 points higher at 1,643.29, moved between 1,641.71 and 1,649.31 throughout the trading session.
Five important aspects relating to people’s lives in Budget 2025 - PM
The focus is on driving the MADANI Economy, speeding reforms, cutting red tape, raising wages, and tackling the cost of living.
Economic outlook: Govt plans to leverage, expand existing city transit system
The expansion aims to provide a more efficient and reliable public transportation network, reduce congestion, and improve accessibility.