LONDON: The last remaining treaty that limits Russian and U.S. nuclear weapons was already in grave peril before President Vladimir Putin announced on Tuesday that Moscow was suspending its participation.
Now it may be beyond repair, raising the risk of a new arms race - in parallel with the war in Ukraine - in which neither side can rely on the stable, predictable framework that successive nuclear accords have provided for more than 50 years.
Security analysts said that could hugely complicate the delicate calculus that underpins mutual deterrence between the two countries, while also spurring other powers such as China, India and Pakistan to build up their nuclear arsenals.
In a major speech almost a year after his invasion of Ukraine, Putin said Russia was not abandoning the New START treaty - the agreement signed in 2010 that limits the number of Russian and U.S. deployed strategic nuclear warheads.
But nuclear experts noted the treaty contains no provision for either side to "suspend" its participation, as he said Moscow was doing - they only have the option to withdraw.
Putin said Russia would only resume discussion once French and British nuclear weapons were also taken into account - a condition the analysts said was a non-starter, as it was opposed by Washington and would require a complete rewriting of the treaty.
William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia had decided it could live without New START but was seeking to put the blame on Washington.
"They've already made the calculation the treaty will die. The effort will be to pin the actual loss on the United States," he said in an telephone interview.
The treaty effectively limits the number of warheads per missile that either side can deploy, so its demise could instantly multiply the warhead count several times over, Alberque added.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has an estimated 5,977 nuclear warheads in total, while the United States has 5,428.
"Both sides could immediately go from 1,550 deployed strategic warheads to 4,000 - that could happen overnight," Alberque said.
That is potentially destabilising because it creates a "use or lose" dilemma in which dense concentrations of the opponent's warheads present more attractive targets, he said.
"HUGE INSTABILITY"
Putin justified the Russian move by saying it was "absurd" for the United States to demand the right to inspect Russian nuclear sites, as the treaty allows, while NATO was helping Ukraine to attack them.
He was apparently referring to what Russia says were Ukrainian strikes in December on its Engels airfield near Saratov, 730 km (450 miles) southeast of Moscow, where Russian strategic bomber planes are based. Putin said, without providing evidence, that NATO specialists had "equipped and modernized" drones to conduct the attacks.
Ukraine has followed a policy of not publicly claiming responsibility for attacks on Russian soil.
James Cameron, a post-doctoral fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, said that if New START was abandoned, it would mark a return to Cold War-style guesswork about the adversary's capabilities and intentions.
"So you have a huge instability in the relationship where both sides are acting on the worst-case scenario, adding ever more elaborate systems and plans for their use, and that ultimately leads to a much more unstable situation between the two sides and also greater risk of some kind of nuclear use," he said in a telephone interview.
Both analysts said it was concerning that Putin had flagged the possibility that Russia might resume testing of nuclear weapons, even though he said Moscow would not take that step unless Washington did so first.
They said that could pave the way for Putin to accuse Washington of conducting or preparing a test in order to justify one of his own.
If he did, it would be Moscow's first since 1990, the year before the breakup of the USSR. Alberque noted that the United States and the Soviet Union had used nuclear tests during the Cold War "to signal to each other when they were mad".
Cameron said any Russian test would also be seen as a rung on the ladder of escalation in Ukraine and "an attempt to signal greater readiness to use nuclear weapons" in the context of the war. In the 12 months since the invasion, Putin has repeatedly reminded the West that Russia has weapons of mass destruction and has extended its nuclear umbrella to areas of Ukraine that Moscow has seized and now claims as its territory.
In the event that New START collapsed, or the two sides failed to renew it before it expires in February 2026, it would mark the end of more than half a century of arms control pacts between the two sides, and send a signal to other existing and would-be nuclear powers.
"What would that tell the Indians and Pakistanis, what would China do?" Alberque said. "This could be much more dangerous than the Cold War because you could have many more players racing up to higher numbers, and that would be terrible for global security."
Reuters
Wed Feb 22 2023
Damaged glasses lie on the ground at a bus station destroyed after a shelling, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kherson, Ukraine February 21, 2023. - REUTERS
ISIS Malaysia's perspective of Budget 2025
An excellent rakyat-centric budget under the overarching principle of a caring and humane economy.
Budget 2025: Record increase in STR, SARA aid initiatives
The government will provide a significant boost to the Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) and Sumbangan Asas Rahmah (SARA) initiatives next year.
Budget 2025: EPF contributions to be made mandatory for foreign workers – PM Anwar
The government plans to make it compulsory for all non-citizen workers to contribute to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF).
What policies to expect from Indonesia's new President Prabowo
Prabowo will be open to foreign investment, his aide has said, such as by offering investors management of airports and sea ports.
Budget 2025: Govt allocates RM470 mil to empower women's participation in PMKS
The Women's Leadership Apprenticeship Program will be intensified as an effort to produce more female corporate personalities.
Israel sends more troops into north Gaza, deepens raid
Residents of Jabalia in northern Gaza said Israeli tanks had reached the heart of the camp, using heavy air and ground fire.
Indonesia ramps up security ahead of Prabowo's inauguration
Prabowo Subianto will be sworn in as Indonesia's president on Sunday with Vice President-elect, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, also taking office.
Immediate allocation of RM150 mil for local authorities, DID to tackle flash floods
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said this allocation is intended to address the recent flash floods that hit the capital and several major towns.
Budget 2025: Sabah, Sarawak to continue receiving among highest allocations - PM
Sabah and Sarawak continues to be prioritised under Budget 2025, with allocations of RM6.7 billion and RM5.9 billion respectively.
NFOF will be operational in November 2024 with funding of RM1 bil
PM Anwar Ibrahim said NFOF will support venture capital fund managers to invest in startup companies with RM300 million set aside for 2025.
Minimum wage to increase to RM1,700 effective Feb 1, 2025
The Progressive Wage Policy would be fully enforced next year with an allocation of RM200 million, benefiting 50,000 workers.
Bursa Malaysia ends higher on Budget 2025 optimism
The benchmark index, which opened 1.85 points higher at 1,643.29, moved between 1,641.71 and 1,649.31 throughout the trading session.
Five important aspects relating to people’s lives in Budget 2025 - PM
The focus is on driving the MADANI Economy, speeding reforms, cutting red tape, raising wages, and tackling the cost of living.
Economic outlook: Govt plans to leverage, expand existing city transit system
The expansion aims to provide a more efficient and reliable public transportation network, reduce congestion, and improve accessibility.
Economic outlook: Budget 2025 to lay foundation for a digital-driven economy
The report said Budget 2025 will entail efforts to position Kuala Lumpur as a top 20 global startup hub by 2030 through the KL20 initiative.
Economic outlook: Corruption and lack of accountability hinder economic progress
Special Cabinet Committee on National governance is established to curb corruption, law reforms to modernise outdate regulations, MoF said.
National Wages Consultative Council will be strengthened
The govt will also incentivise hiring women returning from career breaks, offer job matching and improve care services facilities.
Economic outlook: Ensuring 11 years of compulsory education for all children
Budget 2025 will continue prioritising upskilling and retraining initiatives to equip workers with the latest skill sets necessary.
Consolidated public sector projected to record lower surplus of RM41.7 bil 2024
The MoF said the consolidated general government revenue is estimated to increase slightly to RM384.7 billion in 2024.
PM announces substantial Budget 2025 hastening Malaysia to become Asian economic powerhouse
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said it would create jobs and also tackle financial leakages to enhance public spending efficiency.