North Korea's claim Wednesday that it had tested a hydrogen bomb alarmed Pyongyang's Asian neighbors -- and the rest of the world. We take a look at what's behind this new North Korean claim.
Q: Is this a big deal? We already knew they had nukes, right?
A: It's a big deal because a hydrogen, or thermonuclear, bomb is much, much more powerful.
The "Little Boy" atomic bomb that the United States dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945 had a yield of 15 kilotons, while the "Fat Man" dropped on Nagasaki a few days later had a yield of 20 kilotons. By comparison, the dry fuel hydrogen bomb that the U.S. tested at Bikini Atoll in 1954 had a yield of 15 megatons - making it more than 1,000 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb.
Here's how Kim Du-yeon of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explains it:
"It's basically a difference in the technical process by which an explosion is obtained and in the explosive power (measured in yield). An atomic bomb uses fission and an H-bomb uses fusion. An H-bomb (thermonuclear bomb) has an exponentially greater yield (thousands of times more powerful). It includes an atomic bomb inside its core that acts as a trigger."
Q: Was this a surprise?
A: Not really. North Korea had hinted that this might be coming. In December, Kim Jong Un said his country was "a powerful nuclear weapons state ready to detonate self-reliant A-bomb and H-bomb to reliably defend its sovereignty and the dignity of the nation." And before that, the North Korean ambassador to London had said in a speech that North Korea had weapons that were "ten times as powerful" as the nuclear devices it had previously detonated.
Q: It sounds like the end is nigh. Is it really?
A: Hold on there. There's still a considerable degree of skepticism about whether this really was a hydrogen bomb that was tested today. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, says a few words of caution are in order.
Here's what he wrote on 38 North after Kim's claim in December:
"Building a staged thermonuclear weapon - one in which the radiation from a fission primary compresses a secondary stage of thermonuclear fuel - seems to be a bit of a stretch for the North Koreans. That is the sort of device one normally thinks about when someone says 'H-bomb.' Thermonuclear weapons are tricky; making one work requires a bit of test experience. While the North Koreans finally conducted an unambiguously successful nuclear test in 2013, the 2006 and 2009 tests were less so.
South Korean lawmakers on the parliamentary intelligence committee told local reporters that the supposed hydrogen bomb that North Korea tested Wednesday had a yield of about 6 kilotons - making it about the same size as North Korea's 2013 atomic test and a much smaller explosion than usually associated with hydrogen.
Q: Why now?
A: It's Kim Jong Un's birthday on Friday -- probably his 33rd, although it could be his 32nd, such is the paucity of our knowledge about the "Great Successor" -- so the launch could be an early gift for him. The leaders' birthdays are always celebrated with a lot of fanfare in North Korea, although this is more true of Kim Il Sung, the founding president and the current leader's grandfather, and of Kim Jong Il, the second in the dynasty.
More likely this is all about preparing for the much-awaited Seventh Congress of the Korean Workers' Party in May this year, the first in 36 years.
As Toshimitsu Shigemura, a North Korea specialist at Waseda University in Tokyo, puts it: "Kim Jong Un needs great results before the party congress in May. His father didn't test a hydrogen bomb but now he can say that he has. That's a very great result for him."
Q: So what happens now?
A: Regardless of whether the explosion was atomic or thermonuclear, it was a brazen provocation and a clear defiance of international treaties. So get ready for lots of international condemnation and some stern words at the United Nations. Already North Korea's neighbors - South Korea, Japan and China - have sternly criticized the test, and the the United States is getting ready to do so, once it's confirmed. The U.N. Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting.
The question is: will the Security Council be able to pass a resolution with teeth?
The Security Council has adopted four major resolutions since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006 - one after each of the 2006, 2009 and 2013 tests, and another after a satellite launch in December 2012. All have imposed sanctions on North Korea and sought to both stop it from getting the equipment it needs to develop its nuclear weapons program and to convince it to give up the pursuit of nuclear capability. Clearly, none of these have had much, if any, impact.
Q: Will this time be different?
A: Well, it really depends how mad China is. In 2013, China - North Korea's closest ally and a veto-wielding permanent member of the council - was so angry with Pyongyang that it did support a resolution that expanded the sanctions regime, notably by making it more difficult for North Korea to transfer money.
But as mad as Beijing gets, it still has its eye on the bigger picture: it doesn't want North Korea to collapse and send millions of hungry refugees over China's north-eastern border, and nor does it want the American troops currently in South Korea up on that border. So China's primary interest is stability. But don't expect Xi Jinping to be at the Congress in May.
The Washington Post
Wed Jan 06 2016
Kuo Kai-wen, director of Taiwan's Seismology Center, explains the locations from a monitor showing North Korea's first hydrogen bomb test site, in Taipei on January 6, 2016. - AFP pic
COP29 climate summit draft proposes rich countries pay $250 billion per year
The draft finance deal criticised by both developed and developing nations.
Bomb squad sent to London's Gatwick Airport after terminal evacuation
This was following the discovery of a suspected prohibited item in luggage.
Kelantan urges caution amidst northeast monsoon rains
Kelantan has reminded the public in the state to refrain from outdoor activities with the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon season.
Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern receives UN leadership award
Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern was given a global leadership award by the United Nations Foundation.
ICC'S arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant an apt decision - PM
The decision of the ICC to issue arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant is apt, said Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
KTMB provides two additional ETS trains for Christmas, school holidays
KTMB will provide two additional ETS trains for the KL Sentral-Padang Besar route and return trips in conjunction with the holidays.
BNM'S international reserves rise to USD118 bil as at Nov 15, 2024
Malaysia's international reserves rose to US$118.0 billion as at Nov 15, 2024, up from US$117.6 billion on Oct 30, 2024.
Findings by dark energy researchers back Einstein's conception of gravity
The findings announced are part of a years-long study of the history of the cosmos focusing upon dark energy.
NRES responds to Rimbawatch press release on COP29
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability (NRES) wishes to offer the following clarifications to the issues raised.
Online Safety Bill and Anti-Cyberbullying Laws must carefully balance rights and protections
The Online Safety Advocacy Group (OSAG) stands united with people in Malaysia in the fight against serious online harms.
Malaysia's inflation at 1.9 pct in Oct 2024 - DOSM
Malaysia's inflation rate for October 2024 has increased to 1.9 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent in September this year.
Saudi Arabia showcases Vision 2030 goals at Airshow China 2024
For the first time, Saudi Arabia is participating in the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition held recently in Zhuhai.
King Charles' coronation cost GBP 71mil, govt accounts show
The coronation of Britain's King Charles cost taxpayers GBP72 million (US$90 million), official accounts have revealed.
Couple and associate charged with trafficking 51.9 kg of meth
A married couple and a man were charged in the Magistrate's Court here today with trafficking 51.974 kilogrammes of Methamphetamine.
PDRM to consult AGC in completing Teoh Beng Hock investigation
The police may seek new testimony from existing witnesses for additional insights into the investigation of Teoh Beng Hock's death.
Thai court rejects petition over ex-PM Thaksin's political influence
Thailand's Constitutional Court rejects a petition seeking to stop Thaksin Shinawatra from interfering in the running the Pheu Thai party.
Abidin takes oath of office as Sungai Bakap assemblyman
The State Assemblyman for Sungai Bakap, Abidin Ismail, was sworn in today at the State Assembly building, Lebuh Light.
UPNM cadet officer charged with injuring junior, stomping on him with spike boots
A cadet officer at UPNM pleaded not guilty to a charge of injuring his junior by stomping on the victim's stomach with spike boots.
How Indian billionaire Gautam Adani's alleged bribery scheme took off and unraveled
The indictment was unsealed on Nov. 20, prompting a $27 billion plunge in Adani Group companies' market value.
Elon Musk blasts Australia's planned ban on social media for children
Several countries have already vowed to curb social media use by children through legislation, but Australia's policy could become one of the most stringent.