Reviving dialogue a crucial step in overcoming US-China pessimism

KUALA LUMPUR: US-China relations have become increasingly strained over the past decade, with each country convinced that the other is trying to undermine it.

Observers say that fluctuating tensions and cooperation have been common since relations between the two superpowers normalised in 1949, but they are probably at their most fragile yet.

"There's been a typical pattern of ups and downs over the last few decades. US-China relations can have good times and bad times. When times are too good or too bad, there's always a centrifugal pull back to the middle," says Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center, during a briefing with journalists from the Foreign Press Centre.

"But we can no longer rely on what we used to rely on, which was an automatic return to stable relations after a period of downturn in US-China relations."

Economic interdependence and rivalry

The US and China are deeply intertwined economically, but their rivalry has spilled over into trade wars, technology disputes and accusations of espionage.

The US administration has stepped up scrutiny of Chinese investment and imposed tariffs and technology restrictions on China. Beijing, on the other hand, interprets the sanctions as part of Washington's overall strategy of containment and repression.

As a result, pessimism is growing in both countries. 

"More and more Chinese strategists and thinkers are expressing a consensus view that was a minority view 20 or 30 years ago, which is that there will come a time when the US and China will find it difficult to get along because the US will begin to resist cooperating with China as the power gap (between the two countries) narrows.

"This has now become a common view in China, that the US can no longer tolerate China as a major player in the international system because of China's focus on threatening US interests. So the Chinese themselves have become much more pessimistic about the relationship, and the same is happening on the other side," says Roy.

Reviving dialogue, navigating the communication gap

At this critical juncture, scholars stress the need to keep channels of communication open and to use guardrails to prevent unintended escalation.

"We need to revive dialogue between the US and China. These are the two most powerful countries in the world (but they are not) talking to each other in a comprehensive way about all areas of global politics, military, security and, most importantly, trying to deal with the challenge of climate change," said Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. 

Diamond, speaking at a separate briefing, also warns of China's military build-up and assertive behaviour.

"We also have a nuclear arms race where China is building up its nuclear arsenal. We have the growing danger of provocative and aggressive military operational activity by the People's Liberation Army. We see what they're doing with the planes and the ships - it's pure bravado and intimidation.

"We need to find ways to communicate operationally to try to avoid accidents at sea that could escalate into war," says Diamond.

Meanwhile, Peter A. Gumataotao, director of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), is concerned about the lack of academic engagement with Chinese scholars. Despite invitations, there has been a reluctance on the part of their Chinese counterparts to participate, which he says began following the Hong Kong protests in 2014.

"When that event happened, everything started to shut down. Then there were parallel events, including the pressure in the South China Sea. President Barack Obama stood right next to President Xi Jinping in 2015, where Xi said the (artificial islands) won't be militarised, and look where we are now. So, it has evolved."

"We are always open. We invited them but they didn't come," Gumataotao's said of the centre's efforts to engage Chinese scholars in discussions on Indo-Pacific strategy.

"This is not propaganda to say that China is not the solution and the US is. No, we're not saying that. What DKI APCSS and many other like-minded nations are saying is that we all need to put aside our differences and figure out how to make this work.

"If we don't talk, the likely outcome is miscalculation. If you have a lot of resources behind you and you make a miscalculation, you're going to drag a lot of other people into something they didn't want to be in," Gumataotao said in another briefing with the Foreign Press Tour. 

Diplomatic thaw: Promising signs

Amid tense relations, there are promising signs of a possible thaw in the icy interactions between the two countries. In recent weeks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have both visited Beijing. In addition, climate envoy John Kerry engaged in face-to-face climate negotiations, a significant milestone since China suspended cooperation on global warming last year in response to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

The question remains, however, whether this diplomatic spree will lead to any substantive breakthroughs and help bridge the communication gap in the event of a crisis.

“Blinken was there recently, our Treasury Secretary went there recently. But they won't receive our defence secretary,” says Diamond.

“They won't pick up the phone to revive the red line crisis communications that used to exist so we can try and de-escalate if there is an incident at sea, or something like that. They are playing a high-risk, provocative game that is very dangerous, which is not in their interest and not in the interest of the region."

A dual-track approach

Despite the difficulties, Diamond pursuing two tracks simultaneously: reviving dialogue and addressing provocative behaviours.

“Number one, try to revive dialogue between the world’s two most powerful countries.”

"Number two, is to say (to China) that we have an interest in a free and open Indo-Pacific. We have an interest in securing our supply chains for semiconductors. We have an interest in making sure that Taiwan can determine its own future and that neither side can unilaterally change the status quo, and we are not going to let you just walk all over everybody and autonomously determine what kind of balance of power you want to exist."

"It's a difficult balancing act, but I think the lesson from our previous competition with the Soviet Union is that we have to pursue these two tracks simultaneously - dialogue and negotiation, and vigilance and preparedness," says Diamond.

* The Foreign Press Centre reporting tour is funded by the US Department of State, in which journalists visit government, business and academic institutions in San Francisco and Hawaii between July 11 and 21.