REPUBLICAN Donald Trump had one last chance at a nationally televised debate to reach out to the undecided voters he badly needs to keep his presidential campaign viable.
He passed on the opportunity.
Instead, he chose on Wednesday to stay with the strategy he has employed during recent weeks: Pump up his hard-core supporters and hope that's enough to win.
He suggested he might not accept the election result if his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton wins on Nov. 8, called her a "nasty woman," and repeated hard-line conservative positions on issues such as abortion and immigration.
While that kind of rhetoric was catnip to his passionate, anti-establishment base, it is unlikely to have appealed to independent voters and women who have yet to choose a candidate.
"When you're trailing in the polls, you don't need a headline the next morning saying that you're not going to accept the election results," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist who supports Trump.
With less than three weeks left in the race, Trump is behind Clinton in most battleground states and is under-performing in almost every demographic voter group compared to the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, four years ago. Party strategists had said before the debate that he needed to use the event to draw in voters beyond his hard-core supporters.
Trump didn't listen or perhaps didn't care.
STRATEGY MAY BACKFIRE
His debate was a continuation of his apparent strategy to ensure his most fervent supporters show up on Election Day, while betting that his attacks on Clinton's character and truthfulness will discourage voting by already sceptical young and liberal Democrats.
But experts who study voter behaviour warned that his attacks on Clinton may backfire, saying he may instead awaken Democratic voters who have so far been uninspired by Clinton.
"The risk he faces by engaging in a scorched-earth policy is that he activates people rather than turning them off," said Michael McDonald, who runs the U.S. Election Project at the University of Florida.
McDonald, who tracks early voting returns and absentee ballot requests, said he is seeing larger than expected surges of support for Clinton in southeastern states such as Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project, which uses a massive online opinion poll to project election outcomes in all 50 states, estimates that Clinton has a 95 percent chance of winning the election by about 118 votes in the Electoral College if it were held today.
It is against this backdrop that Trump has apparently decided to double down on energizing his base rather than broadening it. But the poll results cast doubt on the wisdom of that strategy.
If Trump's core white, male, working class supporters vote at high rates, as expected, that likely won't be enough to win. Trump, for example, already does well with white men who are at retirement age. Nine out of 10 of them are already expected to vote, according to the polling results, so, there is little room to squeeze out more votes.
RIGGED ELECTION
Voting rights activists have accused Trump of trying to suppress voter turnout by claiming, without evidence, that the election has been rigged against him. He has also said his supporters need to monitor polling stations to ensure a fair vote, which the activists decry as an act of intimidation.
Should Trump's comments succeed in discouraging some Democratic voters from turning out, that may also not be enough to help him secure the White House. He still loses under what could be considered a dream scenario for the Republican nominee: white men show up in greater numbers than expected, while turnout among racial minorities is lower than expected.
In this scenario, the States of the Nation project estimates that Trump would win the battleground states of Ohio and North Carolina, and he would have a shot at winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado. Even then, Clinton would still have an 82 percent chance of winning the election.
There's yet another risk to Trump's strategy. By claiming the election is rigged, he could be unintentionally signaling to his supporters that voting no longer matters.
Michael Sopko, 63, a mortgage broker from Denver and a Trump backer, said before the debate that he sees his vote as pointless.
"They have already been corrupted," he said of voting machines, speaking ahead of a Trump rally in Colorado Springs. "I think the results are already cast."
Reuters
Thu Oct 20 2016
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton take part in their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate, moderated by Chris Wallace. - Photo by Reuters/Mike Blake
Iran's supreme leader says Hamas leader's death will not halt 'Axis of Resistance'
The "Axis of Resistance", built up with years of Iranian support, includes Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah group, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and various Shi'ite groups in Iraq and Syria.
Putin says Russia willing to seek compromises between Iran and Israel
Russia is ready to help seek compromises between arch-foes Israel and Iran, President Vladimir Putin said on Friday, saying these would be difficult but possible.
What proposals will Russia push at the BRICS summit?
The proposal is also to establish a BRICS reinsurance company to allow uninterrupted shipment of goods and key commodities between members.
Indonesia's free meals plan in the spotlight as Prabowo readies for office
Prabowo calls the programme one of the main drivers of economic growth, eventually set to add an estimated 2.5 million jobs.
Astro AWANI's revamped English news website, AWANI International, launches on Oct 21
Astro AWANI's revamped English platform delivers in-depth global news and expert analysis to keep you informed on key developments.
Israeli strikes kill 33 people in Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza, medics say
Residents of Jabalia said Israeli tanks had reached the heart of the camp after pushing through suburbs and residential districts.
Liam Payne's ex-partner calls for media restraint after 'painful' death
Cheryl Tweedy used her statement to urge the media to remember they had a seven-year-old son, Bear, who could read the reports.
Analysts: Indonesia's strong MoF leadership team to boost investor confidence
Sri Mulyani Indrawati as head of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance is expected to instil confidence among investors.
Biden offers both a carrot and a stick to Israel as his term nears an end
Israel has frequently resisted US advice and has caused political difficulties for the Biden administration.
Putin says BRICS will generate most of global economic growth
Russian President Vladimir Putin will host a summit of the group in the city of Kazan on Oct. 22-24.
ISIS Malaysia's perspective of Budget 2025
An excellent rakyat-centric budget under the overarching principle of a caring and humane economy.
Budget 2025: Record increase in STR, SARA aid initiatives
The government will provide a significant boost to the Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) and Sumbangan Asas Rahmah (SARA) initiatives next year.
Budget 2025: EPF contributions to be made mandatory for foreign workers – PM Anwar
The government plans to make it compulsory for all non-citizen workers to contribute to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF).
What policies to expect from Indonesia's new President Prabowo
Prabowo will be open to foreign investment, his aide has said, such as by offering investors management of airports and sea ports.
Budget 2025: Govt allocates RM470 mil to empower women's participation in PMKS
The Women's Leadership Apprenticeship Program will be intensified as an effort to produce more female corporate personalities.
Israel sends more troops into north Gaza, deepens raid
Residents of Jabalia in northern Gaza said Israeli tanks had reached the heart of the camp, using heavy air and ground fire.
Indonesia ramps up security ahead of Prabowo's inauguration
Prabowo Subianto will be sworn in as Indonesia's president on Sunday with Vice President-elect, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, also taking office.
Immediate allocation of RM150 mil for local authorities, DID to tackle flash floods
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said this allocation is intended to address the recent flash floods that hit the capital and several major towns.
Budget 2025: Sabah, Sarawak to continue receiving among highest allocations - PM
Sabah and Sarawak continues to be prioritised under Budget 2025, with allocations of RM6.7 billion and RM5.9 billion respectively.
NFOF will be operational in November 2024 with funding of RM1 bil
PM Anwar Ibrahim said NFOF will support venture capital fund managers to invest in startup companies with RM300 million set aside for 2025.