Taliban's controls two-thirds of Afghanistan, US warns Kabul could fall within 90 days

Taliban has captured the tenth out of 34 Afghan provincial capital in less than a week.

While the capital Kabul has yet to be directly threatened in the rapid advance, US Intelligence warns the city could fall to Taliban forces within 90 days.

Here’s what you need to know:

WHAT IS GOING ON?

The U.S., Nato and foreign forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan by end of this month after two decades of war.

In February 2020, the Donald Trump administration signed a peace deal with Taliban in Doha.

The accord drew up plans for withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in exchange for security guarantees from the insurgent group.

As part of the deal, the U.S. committed to withdraw its 12,000 troops within 14 months.

As President Joe Biden commits to full withdrawal of troops by end of August, Taliban has made rapid advances, capturing over 65 percent of the country in a week.

The Taliban have taken the strategic Afghan city of Ghazni just 150 kilometres from Kabul.

Head of Ghazni provincial council Nasir Ahmad Faqiri told AFP, "the Taliban took control of the key areas of the city, the governor's office, the police headquarters and the prison."

Yesterday, the BBC reported that Afghanistan has replaced its army chief, General Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai who has only been in the post since June.

Intense fighting was reported yesterday in the cities of Kandahar and Ghazni with a bloodshed delivering scores of bodies of Afghan forces and some injured Taliban.

The terrified population is caught in the middle with the insurgents gaining new territory on what seems like a daily basis, as the international forces have all but withdrawn.

As a result, thousands of Afghans have had to escape from their homes and hundreds injured in recent weeks.

According to the United Nations, more than 1,000 civillians have been killed in the past month.

The move comes in spite of criticisms by the international community and cautions from the UN that a military conquest and invasion by the Taliban would not be recognised.

Meanwhile, the Taliban have not heeded requests to go back to the negotiating table and resume long-delayed peace talks with the government.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

The Taliban wants to defeat the US-backed government and reimpose strict Islamic law.

Taliban dominated most of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001.

A US-led invasion of Afghanistan quickly overthrew the Taliban regime after their leader, Mullah Omar, refused to hand over Osama bin Laden who was behind the September 11 Twin Towers attack.

Now, as US troop prepares to leave, the group is reviving and expanding quickly across the country and is on the verge of restoring supremacy after being ousted in 2001.

CONTROL OVER AFGHANISTAN

There are 429 districts in Afghanistan, out of which the Taliban has already taken over nearly 200 districts with about five to six districts per day.

Over the last 20 years, the Taliban has dramatically expanded their base of support, with built-in roads all over the country.

Yesterday, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani flew to the north to organise a defense of besieged Mazar-i-Sharif, the country’s fourth-largest city, Reuters reported.

Northern cities, including Kunduz, Sar-e-Pul, Taloqan and Sheberghan, as well as Zaranj in the south west have fallen to Taliban control.

According to a research by the BBC Afghan service, the rebels now have a dominant presence across the country, which includes the north and north-east and central provinces like Ghazni and Maidan Wardak.

The group is also closing in on Mazar-i-Sharif, Herat in the west, and the southern cities of Kandahar and Lashkar Gah.

A US defence official has cited US intelligence as saying that the ‘Taliban fighters could isolate Afghanistan’s capital in 30 days and possibly take over within 90 days’, Reuters reported earlier today.

WHAT ABOUT AFGHAN’S OWN DEFENCE CAPACITY?

US military presence in Afghanistan that costs around USD 1 trillion, parts of it spent to train and strengthen Afghan government forces.

According to a report from US watchdog Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) comprises of 300,699 security personnel, including army, police and air force members.

About one-fifth of them are highly trained special forces operatives and there are undisclosed figures for CIA-trained paramilitary groups as well as militias associated with the country’s commanders.

Meanwhile, Andrew Watkins, a senior analyst for Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group said, “For a long time, people in the US and the NATO advisory mission have known that the Afghan police are notoriously corrupt.”

Watkins added that ‘although the new payroll system had gone some way toward improving the situation, commanders were now skimming off their subordinates’ salaries.’

CAN THE GOVERNMENT TURN THINGS AROUND?

President Ghani offered a security plan and pledged to bring the country back under government control within six months.

The general framework of the proposal has the army safeguarding strategic targets while the Afghan police provide security in major urban areas.

According to Reuters, Ghani’s visit to Mazar-i-Sharif on Wednesday was an effort to rally a defense of the city with strongman Atta Mohammad Noor and militia leader Abdul Rashid Dostum and there have been reports that Ghani has assured the two leaders air support as well as backing from the special forces corps to regain back northern territories.

WILL THE US STEP IN AGAIN?

Joe Biden urges Afghan leaders to fight for their nation. “They’ve (Afghan forces) got to want to fight.”

And as for removing US troops, Biden says, 'I do not regret my decision'.

Nevertheless, Biden has fixed a symbolic date of September 11, 2021 for full withdrawal, 20 years after the terror attacks in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania that led the US to target Afghanistan in the first place.

The Biden administration have constantly expressed hope that talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government could deliver a peaceful outcome but possibilities for successful negotiations are quickly fading.

READ ALSO - Factbox: Some key leaders of Afghanistan's Taliban

WHO ARE THE TALIBAN?

Taliban, which means students in the Pashto language, is an ultraconservative political and religious faction that emerged in the Afghanistan mid-1990s in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan.

Initially, the agreement made by the Taliban once in power, was to restore peace and security and impose their own rules of Sharia or Islamic law in Pashtun areas on both sides of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

According to recent NATO estimates, the group is now believed to be stronger in numbers than at any time since they were toppled in 2001, with up to 85,000 fighters full-time.

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