A day after a court removed prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra from power, Thailand was mired in a political crisis on Thursday as an anti-graft body ruled that she should face impeachment proceedings.
Here are three possible steps ahead -- from an unlikely deal between Thailand's bitterly divided political camps, to a military coup.
Scenario 1: Will Yingluck be banned from politics?
Yingluck, deposed on Wednesday by the Constitutional Court, could theoretically return as prime minister if her Puea Thai party won elections slated for July 20.
But a huge question mark looms over this after a Thai anti-graft panel ruled Thursday that she should face impeachment proceedings in the upper house of parliament -- a move that could see her banned from politics for five years.
That would deal a heavy blow to her and her billionaire family but would not necessarily see the ruling Puea Thai party shed voters if new polls are successfully held.
To Puea Thai's relief, the graft panel said it would not extend its probe to the rest of the caretaker cabinet -- a move that would have sent the kingdom spinning into an even deeper crisis.
The battered administration is hoping to hold out for new elections. Parties led by or aligned to Thaksin -- Yingluck's billionaire elder brother -- have won every poll since 2001.
Scenario 2: Could there be a military coup?
Anti-government protesters have vowed massive action on Friday, while Yingluck's "Red Shirt" supporters plan a major rally in Bangkok on Saturday.
In the event of violent clashes on the streets or widespread action by the Reds in their rural strongholds, the army could step in.
This would be nothing out of the ordinary for a nation that has had 18 successful or attempted coups since 1932.
Thailand's army has declined to make such a move during the last six months of chaotic protests, even as political violence has at times threatened to spiral out off control.
But powerful army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha has declined to rule out a coup, in December saying "anything can happen".
Red Shirt chairman Jatuporn Prompan said Thursday that he feared a coup was "unavoidable".
The anti-government protesters are backed by the traditional elite and many royalist southerners, who view the last 13 years of political dominance by the Shinawatra family as a threat to the monarchy.
Scenario 3: Could both sides agree on a 'neutral' prime minister?
In the final scenario, Puea Thai and the opposition could agree to nominate a "neutral" prime minister belonging to neither side.
Interim prime minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan could "ultimately resign as part of an elite compromise in preparation for reforms before elections," suggested Paul Chambers of the Institute of South East Asian Affairs at Chiang Mai University in northern Thailand.
Analysts have agonised in recent weeks over a suitable compromise premier -- but have failed to come up with any plausible candidates.
With the two sides bitterly divided, this remains the least likely scenario.
Scenting victory, anti-government protesters refuse to budge on their insistence that the government be replaced with an unelected "people's council" with an appointed prime minister at its head.
The ruling party says the result of the last election should be respected, believing it can continue to win at the ballot box.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said some form of compromise was needed to bring the crisis to an end.
"In order to keep what they have, the established centres of power will have to make some concessions," he said.
On their side, he added, the Red Shirts must accept that Thaksin -- adored by the rural poor for his populist policies before he too was deposed, but reviled by the opposition -- is "not the answer for Thailand".
"If they can both realise that, then somehow we can navigate a way forward," he said.
AFP
Thu May 08 2014
Filepic of Yingluck's 'Red Shirt' supporters
'No one will win a trade war,' China says after Trump tariff threat
Donald Trump says he would impose the tariffs until China stops the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the United States.
What has caused Pakistan's deadly clashes between police and supporters of Imran Khan?
Topping the demands of Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party is the release of all its leaders, including Khan, who has been jailed on a series of corruption charges since August 2023.
One woman or girl killed every 10 minutes by intimate partner or family member - UN
The report highlights that "60 per cent of all female homicides" are committed by "people closely related to them".
Sweden urges Chinese ship to return for undersea cable investigation
Two subsea cables, one linking Finland and Germany and the other connecting Sweden to Lithuania, were damaged in less than 24 hours.
[COLUMNIST] Building more highways won’t solve traffic congestion - reducing demand will
It is clear that adding more lanes and highways doesn't work, because we are still attempting the same approach to solve the issue.
Hyundai to invest RM2.16 bil in Malaysia through strategic partnership with INOKOM
This investment includes efforts to upgrade INOKOM's existing assembly capacity to meet Hyundai's automotive needs.
‘C4Cinta’ sets record as highest-grossing Malaysian Tamil film
'C4Cinta', directed by young filmmaker Karthik Shamalan, has set a new benchmark in Malaysian Tamil cinema.
Man charged with mother's murder, storing body in freezer
The court denied bail and scheduled case mention on Feb 7 for the submission of forensic, autopsy, and chemist reports.
Abolition of examination in schools to reduce pressure on pupils - Fadhlina
The classroom assessment approach offers a much more interesting learning ecosystem, says Fadhlina Sidek.
Google, Meta urge Australia to delay bill on social media ban for children
Google and Meta says the government should wait for the results of an age-verification trial before going ahead.
Judge tosses Trump 2020 election case after prosecutors' request
It represents a big legal victory for Donald Trump, who won the Nov. 5 US election and is set to return to office on Jan. 20.
DHL plane crash in Lithuania leaves authorities searching for answers
Rescue services said the plane hit the ground, split into pieces and slid over 100 metres (110 yards).
National squad to hold friendly matches for 2025 Indoor Hockey World Cup
The warm-up matches will involve matches against better ranked teams in the world, namely Austria (first) and Belgium (third).
G7 seeks unity on ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu
The United States, part of the G7, has rejected the ICC decision, with President Joe Biden describing it as outrageous.
Francissca Peter remembers Tan Sri Ahmad Nawab: A tribute to a musical legend
A legend who has influenced our music for decades, was one of the highlights of my career, says Francissca Peter.
TikTok decision coming soon as Jan. 19 divestment deadline looms
Judges are reviewing TikTok's challenge to a law requiring ByteDance to sell its US assets by Jan. 19 or face a ban.
Lebanese sources: Biden, Macron set to announce Israel-Hezbollah truce
In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said, "We're close" but "nothing is done until everything is done".
PM meets chaebol tycoon to attract more FDI to Malaysia
Chaebols are prominent figures from South Korea's family-owned conglomerates.
Govt won't allow non-citizen vehicles to enjoy RON95 subsidy - Economy Ministry
The implementation of the RON95 subsidy in 2025 is expected to provide savings of RM3.6 billion to government expenditure.
Ringgit opens lower as greenback gains ground
Dr Mohd Afzanizam says the market responded positively to news of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent heading the US Treasury Department.