Will the number of humans on Earth drop drastically by 2100?

THE world's population is likely to be halved by 2100 and fall to 4 billion, according to projections by economist James Pomeroy. An estimation that goes against those of the United Nations, which foresee a global population of 10 billion human beings by the end of the century.

How many people will be living on planet Earth by 2100? According to the highest estimates of the United Nations, there will be nearly 15 billion of us at the beginning of the next century.

The middle scenario hovers around 10 billion and the lowest scenario projects 8 billion.

A peak in the global population in 2043

These results are challenged by report from HSBC Global Research and economist James Pomeroy. According to the report, the drastic decrease in birth rate and the increase in mortality would mean that the world population could reach its peak in 2043 by approaching 8 billion inhabitants before a decline in the number of births begins to total a little more than 4 billion human beings in 2100.

“The drop in births globally is already incredibly significant," the HSBC Global Research experts write. "Across the world, the UN estimates that nearly 40m fewer babies were born across 2020-22 than if the birth rate from 2019 had held firm."

The pandemic has a role to play in the decline in fertility. During this period, the birth rate fell by 1%, "meaning that for every 1,000 people, one fewer baby is born today than in 2019," the study illustrates. On the scale of 8 billion humans, that's 8 million fewer babies every year.

However, not all of the world's population is in the same boat. "In Europe, if things continue as they are, the population would halve by the time we get to 2070, and we’d have 400m fewer people living on the continent by the time we get to the end of the century," experts warn.

Why is the population likely to decline?

There are a number of factors that could contribute to a decline in the birth rate. The study cites improved economic development, improved access to health care and, in emerging countries, access to contraception.

In addition, women's participation in the labor market has a role to play in the decline in births.

Increasing the time of female primary schooling from 0 to 6 years leads to a 40% to 80% decrease in birth rates, according to Dr. Max Roser, founder of Our World in Data, cited in the study.

In addition, the increase in real estate prices could put the brakes on young couples' desire to start a family, who may postpone the birth of children in order to save for a longer period.