THE United Nations estimates that the global human population will reach eight billion by mid-November, and will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace and with regional disparities, in the decades to come.
Here are some key takeaways from the UN analysis:
- Population growth slowdown -
The UN Population Division estimates that the number of humans on Earth will grow to eight billion on November 15, more than three times higher than the 2.5 billion global headcount in 1950.
However, after a peak in the early 1960s, the world's population growth rate has decelerated dramatically, Rachel Snow of the UN Population Fund told AFP.
Annual growth has fallen from a high of 2.1 percent between 1962 and 1965 to below 1 percent in 2020.
That figure could potentially fall to around 0.5 percent by 2050 due to a continued decline in fertility rates, the United Nations projects.
- When will we peak? -
Given the increase in life expectancy as well as the number of people of childbearing age, the UN projects the population to continue growing to about 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and a peak of about 10.4 billion in the 2080s.
Other groups have, however, calculated different figures.
The US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimated in a 2020 study that the global population would max out by 2064, without ever reaching 10 billion, and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100.
"We are lower than them (the UN) and I think we have a good reason," lead author of the IHME study, Stein Emil Vollset, told AFP.
The University of Washington professor says that under their "quite different fertility model," the human population will only reach somewhere between nine and 10 billion.
- Fertility rate drop -
In 2021, the average fertility rate was 2.3 children per woman over her lifetime, down from about five in 1950, according to the UN, which projects that number to fall to 2.1 by 2050.
"We've reached a stage in the world where the majority of countries and the majority of people in this world are living in a country that is below replacement fertility," or roughly 2.1 children per woman, says Snow.
- Graying globally -
A key factor driving global population growth is that average life expectancy continues to increase: 72.8 years in 2019, nine years more than in 1990. And the UN predicts an average life expectancy of 77.2 years by 2050.
The result, combined with the decline in fertility, is that the proportion of people over 65 is expected to rise from 10 percent in 2022 to 16 percent in 2050.
This global graying will have an impact on labor markets and national pension systems, while requiring much more elderly care.
Snow says that a growing number of countries are reaching out to her organization, asking "how can UNFPA help us better understand what we might do to boost our population."
- Unprecedented diversity -
Beneath the global averages are some major regional disparities.
For example, the UN projects that more than half of the population growth by 2050 will come from just eight countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
The average age in different regions is also meaningful, currently at 41.7 years in Europe versus 17.6 years in Sub-Saharan Africa, according to Snow, who says the gap "has never been as large as it is today."
Those numbers could even out, but unlike in the past when countries' average ages were mostly young, says Snow, "in the future, we may be closer in age, mostly old."
Some experts believe these regional demographic differences may play a significant role in geopolitics going forward.
- India to surpass China -
In another illustration of changing trends, the two most populous countries, China and India, will trade places on the podium as early as 2023, according to the UN.
China's 1.4 billion population will eventually begin to decline, falling to 1.3 billion by 2050, the UN projects.
By the end of the century, the Chinese population could fall to only 800 million.
India's population, currently just below that of China, is expected to surpass its northern neighbor in 2023, and grow to 1.7 billion by 2050 -- though its fertility rate has already fallen below replacement level.
The United States will remain the third most populous country in 2050, the UN projects, but it will be tied with Nigeria at 375 million.
ETX Studio
Tue Nov 08 2022
The global population will breach the symbolic level of 8 billion on November 15, according to the UN. - ETX Studio
Who is Prabowo Subianto, incoming president of Indonesia?
A wealthy ex-general with ties to Indonesia's popular outgoing president and its dictatorial past, looks set to be its next leader.
Iran's supreme leader says Hamas leader's death will not halt 'Axis of Resistance'
The "Axis of Resistance", built up with years of Iranian support, includes Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah group, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and various Shi'ite groups in Iraq and Syria.
Putin says Russia willing to seek compromises between Iran and Israel
Russia is ready to help seek compromises between arch-foes Israel and Iran, President Vladimir Putin said on Friday, saying these would be difficult but possible.
What proposals will Russia push at the BRICS summit?
The proposal is also to establish a BRICS reinsurance company to allow uninterrupted shipment of goods and key commodities between members.
Indonesia's free meals plan in the spotlight as Prabowo readies for office
Prabowo calls the programme one of the main drivers of economic growth, eventually set to add an estimated 2.5 million jobs.
Astro AWANI's revamped English news website, AWANI International, launches on Oct 21
Astro AWANI's revamped English platform delivers in-depth global news and expert analysis to keep you informed on key developments.
Israeli strikes kill 33 people in Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza, medics say
Residents of Jabalia said Israeli tanks had reached the heart of the camp after pushing through suburbs and residential districts.
Liam Payne's ex-partner calls for media restraint after 'painful' death
Cheryl Tweedy used her statement to urge the media to remember they had a seven-year-old son, Bear, who could read the reports.
Analysts: Indonesia's strong MoF leadership team to boost investor confidence
Sri Mulyani Indrawati as head of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance is expected to instil confidence among investors.
Biden offers both a carrot and a stick to Israel as his term nears an end
Israel has frequently resisted US advice and has caused political difficulties for the Biden administration.
Putin says BRICS will generate most of global economic growth
Russian President Vladimir Putin will host a summit of the group in the city of Kazan on Oct. 22-24.
ISIS Malaysia's perspective of Budget 2025
An excellent rakyat-centric budget under the overarching principle of a caring and humane economy.
Budget 2025: Record increase in STR, SARA aid initiatives
The government will provide a significant boost to the Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) and Sumbangan Asas Rahmah (SARA) initiatives next year.
Budget 2025: EPF contributions to be made mandatory for foreign workers – PM Anwar
The government plans to make it compulsory for all non-citizen workers to contribute to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF).
What policies to expect from Indonesia's new President Prabowo
Prabowo will be open to foreign investment, his aide has said, such as by offering investors management of airports and sea ports.
Budget 2025: Govt allocates RM470 mil to empower women's participation in PMKS
The Women's Leadership Apprenticeship Program will be intensified as an effort to produce more female corporate personalities.
Israel sends more troops into north Gaza, deepens raid
Residents of Jabalia in northern Gaza said Israeli tanks had reached the heart of the camp, using heavy air and ground fire.
Indonesia ramps up security ahead of Prabowo's inauguration
Prabowo Subianto will be sworn in as Indonesia's president on Sunday with Vice President-elect, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, also taking office.
Immediate allocation of RM150 mil for local authorities, DID to tackle flash floods
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said this allocation is intended to address the recent flash floods that hit the capital and several major towns.
Budget 2025: Sabah, Sarawak to continue receiving among highest allocations - PM
Sabah and Sarawak continues to be prioritised under Budget 2025, with allocations of RM6.7 billion and RM5.9 billion respectively.