Study: BN and Pakatan on equal footing to win GE13

Conducted by Universiti Malaya’s Centre for Democracy and Elections (UMCEDEL), the study found that both coalitions are receiving more than 40 per cent support from Malaysians.

The survey was conducted between April 4 (the day after the Parliament was dissolved) and April 20 (the nomination day).

UMCEDEL director Professor Datuk Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said for the first time in the history, both parties almost have the same chances of winning, and the battle towards the end will be ‘head-to-head’.

He said the margin of difference for support for both parties is only five per cent and in this case it is hard to determine who is going to win the election. This was opposed to pre-2008, where the Opposition clear had no indications of any potential of forming the government.

“In the political context in Malaysia, no parties can claim that they are already a winner of the general election because there is still a long way to go,” said Mohammad Redzuan told reporters at Universiti Malaya today.

He said that with the nine more days to go before the polling day, anything can happen and the voting pattern can change drastically.

“How the people perceive and respond to the manifestos from both parties, the understanding of both manifestos will be vital as it can change voting pattern,” he said.

Among other factors that can change voting pattern on the voters is the inclusion of a slew of independent candidates this time around.

“We do not expect to have so many independent candidates contesting this election. Therefore, with the independent candidates in the picture, it will jeopardise both parties' election machineries, morale and it also brings in several more possible factors in the voting pattern,” he said.

He added that the ‘head-on-collision’ between PR’s parties like Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Parti Islam Semalaysia (PAS) will also be factors that determine votes.

He also expressed that although public have a greater tendency in liking the opposition’s manifesto, it does not mean that will translate into votes.

“Accepting is not a vote. Although they are accepting the manifesto, it does not mean they will be going to vote for the party so in this case both parties had to prove that their manifestos really benefit to the people,” said Mohammad Redzuan.

Meanwhile, the 15-days study also found that there is a tendency of Chinese voters of choosing opposition.

“There is a tendency of Chinese voters choosing the opposition while the Malays will stick with BN.

"According to the study the Chinese voters have already made up their minds to vote for change while the Malays are still going to be the fence-sitters, and will only decide at the very last minute of the general election,” he said.