KUALA LUMPUR: The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s Supreme Leader signals a shift toward regime survival and internal security, prioritising these over the clerical legitimacy that has underpinned the Islamic Republic since its inception, a research fellow at Nanyang Technological University said.

The 56-year-old son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was elected by the Assembly of Experts on March 8. The move came eight days after his father was killed in strikes by the United States and Israel. He becomes only the third person to lead the country since the 1979 revolution.

“His selection signals a departure from the traditional religious qualifications required for the office of the Vilayat-e-Faqih,” Soliman told AWANI International.

Under the system of Vilayat-e-Faqih, or guardianship of the Islamic jurist, political authority is traditionally held by the most senior Shi’ite jurist.

However, the younger Khamenei is a mid-level cleric and does not hold the rank of ayatollah. His father similarly lacked the ayatollah title when he became supreme leader in 1989, prompting a legal amendment to accommodate him.

SECURITY OVER STATUS

Despite having no prior public office, Khamenei is widely seen as having long wielded influence behind the scenes through close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the security establishment.

Soliman said the appointment aims to bolster internal unity amid external military pressure. Tehran is currently engaged in missile and drone exchanges with the U.S., Israel, and Gulf neighbors. The selection indicates that hardline factions remain in control and are unlikely to seek negotiations with external adversaries in the near term, she added.

DECENTRALISED COMMAND

Iran has spent years restructuring its command systems to ensure continuity during crises, Soliman noted. The country’s desentralised “mosaic defence” doctrine allows mid-level IRGC commanders to launch missile or drone strikes independently if communication with Tehran is severed.

“So under this structure, Iran is divided into 31 distinct military sectors, one for each province, allowing mid-level IRGC commanders to operate with a degree of autonomy,” Soliman said.

Iranian leadership appears to believe it can outlast its adversaries in a conflict of attrition. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on social media platform X that Iran remains ready for prolonged conflict and can defend the regime even if senior leaders are targeted.

REGIONAL RISKS

Soliman said Iran’s strategy may involve driving up economic costs for the region. Tehran has justified strikes by claiming U.S. military bases in the Gulf make those host nations legitimate targets.

Ongoing strikes and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have shuttered regional oil and gas facilities, pushing oil prices above USD100 a barrel.

Soliman noted that Gulf states will likely "prioritise economic stability and avoid deeper involvement” in the escalating conflict.