[COLUMNIST] Geopolitical consequences for the US

THE US risks being viewed not just as an ally, but as an enabler of Israeli excesses and brutalities, damaging its global standing. Experts like Mouin Rabbani, a co-editor at Jadaliyya, have pointed out that U.S. backing for Israel’s brutal actions in Gaza undermines its credibility on the world stage, particularly when it comes to advocating for human rights and international law. This selective application of values erodes America’s soft power and emboldens its adversaries. In a recent article, Rabbani argued that the U.S. is becoming “complicit in Israel’s war crimes,” by allowing it to violate international norms without facing consequences.

As Israel’s genocide extends beyond Gaza into Lebanon and potentially Iran, the risks for the U.S. multiply. Hezbollah, a heavily armed resistance fighters based in Lebanon, has already been drawn into the conflict, and Iran is making threatening overtures. According to The Economist, the conflict has the potential to escalate into a full-scale regional war, with dire consequences for the US strategic interests in the Middle East.

Several analysts argue that the US may be forced to intervene directly if the conflict spirals out of control. Washington’s military and political investments in Israel make it a target for retaliatory attacks from Iran or its proxies, particularly if the Israeli brutal genocide continues to expand. Not only would this disrupt oil markets, but it would also exacerbate anti-American sentiments across the Muslim world, heightening the risk of retaliatory actions. The Economist warns that the U.S. could find itself dragged into a protracted war, further destabilizing the region and weakening its influence.

Israel’s reliance on military force has always been its core strategy for ensuring “security”, but experts like former US diplomat Dennis Ross suggest that this approach is becoming increasingly counterproductive. As Ross noted in a 2023 essay, military solutions cannot address the political and social roots of the conflict. Israel’s disproportionate use of force alienates even moderate Palestinians, while its aggressive actions against Iran and Hezbollah risk creating a new coalition of regional actors determined to resist the axis of evil US-Israel-UK hegemony.

The longer Israel continues its brutal military operations and illegal occupation of Palestine, the more it risks overextending its capabilities and losing its deterrent edge. Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah assassinated by Israel, warned that any Israeli invasion of Lebanon could result in a quagmire, much like the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, which led to the rise of Hezbollah itself. This would also undermine the U.S.’s ability to maintain a stable balance of power in the region.

Given the grave consequences of this ongoing conflict, the US must exercise its leverage to curb Israel’s excessive actions. Experts like Stephen Walt, a leading international relations theorist, argue that American diplomacy is now essential to prevent further escalation. The US can push for a ceasefire and reinvigorate diplomatic efforts, such as the two-state solution, which has largely fallen off the international agenda.

Walt and other scholars emphasize that unchecked Israeli brutal aggression is a liability for the US. In a recent column, Walt wrote that Israel’s actions are creating a “moral hazard,” where it continues to act aggressively because it knows it will face no real consequences from Washington. To prevent this, the US must make it clear that its support is conditional on Israel adhering to international norms and pursuing a sustainable peace process.

Though it is doubtful that the US has any influence over the brutal and extremely right wing Israel government. The Zionists led Israel has tremendous power almost dictatorial at times, over the US political elites. Hence, it is more the US taking instructions from the Zionists Israel than the other way around.

The Zionists Israel are determined to achieve their “Greater Israel” dream at all costs even if it takes to ethnically cleansing the Palestinians or anyone for that matter. As they say, they are the “chosen one” !

The US could do nothing. The UK / EU could do nothing. The UN could do nothing. The OIC could do nothing. Just never ending rhetorics and condemnations with no real credible or punitive actions on the genociding Zionists Israel. With such a situation, the Zionists Israel are more emboldened to do whatever they want, howsoever brutal it may be. For them brutal war seems to be the way with no credible diplomacy and punitive actions by any organizations, any country or any one.

* Dr Rais Hussin is the Founder of EMIR Research, a think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.

** The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of Astro AWANI.