EU's move to sidestep frozen Russian assets predictable amid political, economic risks – analyst

European Union leaders have agreed to provide Ukraine with 90 billion euros in joint EU loans over the next two years to support its defence against Russia, opting for collective borrowing rather than seizing frozen Russian state assets amid unresolved legal and political divisions within the bloc. Dr Julia Roknifard, a senior lecturer at Taylor’s University’s School of Law and Governance, said the outcome was predictable given the competing pressures facing EU governments. “There has long been a rift among European states over what to do with the frozen assets,” she said, pointing to concerns over legal exposure, economic consequences and political fallout. Belgium, which hosts a large share of the estimated 180 billion euros in frozen Russian reserves, has been central to those debates, she added. Roknifard also said the timing of the EU move reflected broader geopolitical considerations, including discussions in Washington over plans that could channel frozen Russian funds into Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. “The EU appears keen to secure a role in how any future funding is distributed,” she said. Friday’s decision however exposed differing views among member states on the broader strategy toward the war. Countries including Hungary and Slovakia withheld full support of using Russia’s asset to back a major loan for Ukraine, reflecting unease over long-term commitments. Roknifard said the debate within the EU increasingly centres on whether the bloc is choosing escalation over de-escalation. She described the strategy as “a highly provocative move” and said some European leaders fear it could contribute to the perpetuation of a war that Russia, while not decisively winning, still has the capacity to sustain. The EU has already committed tens of billions of euros in aid to Ukraine since the war began in 2022. The new loan framework reinforces the bloc’s collective support for Kyiv, while leaving unresolved the contentious question of how or whether Russia’s frozen assets should ultimately be used.