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How close is Ukraine to a peace deal as it enters its fifth year of war?

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The ruins of residential buildings in the abandoned town of Marinka (Maryinka), which was destroyed in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Donetsk region, a Russian-controlled area of Ukraine. - REUTERS

As Ukraine is set to enter its fifth year of war on Tuesday (February 24), another round of talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine could be held at the end of this week,  President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff told Ukrainian  media on Monday (February 23).

Ukraine, Russia and the United States have held several rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva as Washington seeks an end to four years of war since Moscow's 2022 invasion.

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UKRAINE CLAIMS FRONTLINE GAIN

Tuesday marks the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion, which triggered Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two. Russian forces have killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and destroyed Ukrainian cities. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides have died or been wounded.

In the war's first year, Ukraine forced back the Russian offensive at the gates of Kyiv and reclaimed swathes of occupied land. But a Ukrainian counteroffensive failed the following year, and since then Moscow has made slow but relentless gains in costly battles along a 1,200-km (750-mile) front.

In a rare announcement of a Ukrainian advance, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Monday his forces had "restored control" over 400 square km of territory along a stretch of the southern frontline.

Reuters was not immediately able to confirm the claim, and there was no immediate response from Moscow. If true, it would be the first big Ukrainian gain since December and one of the biggest in many months.

The U.S. has been trying to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but progress has proved elusive. Their most recent talks, in Geneva on February 17 and 18, did not produce a breakthrough.

As President Donald Trump has steered the United States away from providing military and financial support for Ukraine, European countries have increasingly stepped in. But the threats from Slovakia and Hungary put that consensus in jeopardy.

RUSSIA HITS ODESSA

Russia has been relentlessly targeting Ukraine's power grid and energy system in nightly drone and missile attacks, arguing such infrastructure is a legitimate target because it helps the war effort. Kyiv, which has also struck Russian oil infrastructure, says Moscow's aim is to break the national will by freezing Ukrainians in their homes.

Ukraine's emergency services said two people were killed and three wounded overnight in the latest drone attacks that hit the southern Odesa region. Ukraine's Infrastructure Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said Russia had attacked port infrastructure there.

Russian state news agency RIA, citing the country's Defence Ministry, said Moscow's forces had carried out successful strikes on Ukrainian transport, energy and fuel infrastructure.

WHAT IS THE 20-POINT PEACE PROPOSAL UNDER DISCUSSION?

Below are the points of the draft proposal

1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be reaffirmed.

2. This point will envisage a full and unquestionable non-aggression agreement between Russia and Ukraine. It specifies that to sustain long-term peace, a monitoring mechanism will be established to oversee the line of contact through space-based unmanned monitoring, to ensure early notification of violations, and to resolve conflicts.

3. Ukraine will receive robust security guarantees.

4. Ukraine will maintain its armed forces at their present strength of 800,000 personnel. The earlier U.S. draft had called for Ukraine to reduce the size of its forces.

5. The United States, NATO, and European countries will provide Ukraine with security guarantees that mirror Article 5, the mutual-defence clause of NATO's founding treaty.

6. Russia will formalise a policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine in all necessary laws and all required documents on ratification, including ratification by an overwhelming majority vote in the State Duma.

7. Ukraine will become an EU member at a specifically defined date. Ukraine will also receive short-term preferential access to the European market.

8. Ukraine will receive a strong global development package, which will be defined in a separate agreement on investment and future prosperity.

9. Several funds will be established to address economic recovery, the reconstruction of damaged areas and regions, and humanitarian issues. The objective will be to mobilize $800 billion to help Ukraine fully realize its potential.

10. Ukraine will accelerate the process of concluding a free-trade agreement with the United States. Zelenskiy said the U.S. position was that if Washington were to grant free trade access to Ukraine, it aimed to offer similar terms to Russia.

11. Ukraine will confirm that it will remain a non-nuclear state, in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

12. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Zelenskiy said no agreement had yet been reached with the United States on the issue of Europe's biggest nuclear power plant, which is located near the front line in territory now controlled by Russian forces. Zelenskiy said the U.S. proposal was for the plant to be operated jointly by Ukraine, the United States, and Russia, each holding equal stakes in a joint enterprise, with the Americans acting as the chief managers. Kyiv's proposal was for the plant to be operated by a 50-50 joint enterprise involving only the United States and Ukraine, with Ukraine receiving half of the energy produced and the United States independently allocating the other half.

13. Ukraine and Russia commit to implementing educational programmes in schools and across society that promote understanding and tolerance toward different cultures and eliminate racism and prejudice. Ukraine will implement European Union rules on religious tolerance and the protection of minority languages.

14. Territory: Zelenskiy said that this was the most complex point, and as yet unresolved. Russia wants Ukraine to withdraw troops from territory Ukraine still controls in the eastern Donetsk region. Kyiv wants fighting to be halted at current battle lines. Washington has proposed demilitarised zones and a free economic zone in the part of the Donetsk region that Kyiv controls.

15. After reaching an agreement on future territorial arrangements, both Russia and Ukraine undertake not to alter these agreements by force.

16. Russia will not obstruct Ukraine from using the Dnipro River and the Black Sea for commercial purposes. A separate maritime agreement and an access agreement will be concluded, covering freedom of navigation and transport. The Kinburn Spit, along the Dnipro's outlet to the sea, will be demilitarized.

17. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

a. All remaining prisoners of war will be exchanged on the principle of All for All.

b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.

c. Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict.

18. Ukraine must hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the agreement.

19. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council, chaired by President Trump. Ukraine, Europe, NATO, Russia, and the United States will be part of this mechanism. Sanctions will apply in case of violations.

20. Once all parties agree to this agreement, a full ceasefire will take effect immediately.

WHAT IS THE MAIN STICKING POINT?

The two sides cannot agree on the future of the Donetsk region, one of two regions which comprise Donbas. Russian forces already control nearly all of Luhansk, the other region.

Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw from the roughly 20%, or 5,000 square km (1,900 square miles) of Donetsk, which Russian forces have so far not managed to take on the battlefield in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance.

Zelenskiy has said he sees no reason to gift Putin the land.

Donetsk is one of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow said in 2022 it was annexing after referendums rejected by Kyiv and Western nations as a sham.

Most countries recognise Donetsk as part of Ukraine. Putin says Donetsk is part of Russia's "historical lands".

WHAT IS THE MILITARY IMPORTANCE OF DONETSK?

The part of Donetsk still held by Kyiv includes Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, "fortress cities" that are part of a heavily fortified line of defences, including trenches, anti-tank obstacles, bunkers and minefields that are located around them.

Kyiv views the cities as vital to its defence of the rest of Ukraine as the land west of Donetsk is much flatter, making it easier for Russia to advance and take territory on the eastern bank of the River Dnipro.

Zelenskiy says surrendering full control of Donetsk would give Russia a platform to launch assaults deeper into Ukraine. He fears Russia would re-arm after any peace deal and at some point use Donetsk to sweep westwards.

WHAT COMPROMISE ON DONETSK MIGHT BE POSSIBLE?

Zelenskiy says Washington has proposed that neither Russian nor Ukrainian troops be deployed in Donbas and that it be turned into a demilitarised, free economic zone.

THE White House has not commented on the details of the ongoing talks. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated on Thursday after talks with Zelenskiy in Davos, Switzerland, that the war has to end but there was no sign of any breakthrough.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov has said Moscow does not rule out, under the terms of any peace deal, deploying its national guard and police to Donbas instead of the regular army, something that Kyiv is unlikely to accept.

Ushakov told the Kommersant daily last month that the land was Russian and would have to be administered by Moscow.

The U.S. has not yet decided who should administer the territory, Zelenskiy said in December.

WHAT ARE UKRAINE'S LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS?

Zelenskiy says he does not have a mandate to give away territory.  

Under Ukraine's constitution, territorial changes must be settled by a referendum that can be called if it has the signatures of 3 million eligible Ukrainian voters in at least two-thirds of Ukraine's regions.

Trump has criticised the notion that what he has called a land swap would require a referendum and said "there will be some land swapping going on".

 

 

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