[COLUMNIST] ASEAN's next 20 years: What to expect from the ACV2045 Vision

As ASEAN presents itself as a reliable alternative within a multipolar global order, it must equally acknowledge the diverse challenges faced by its nearly 700 million people. This region is strategically located, flanked by East and West trade flows, rich in mineral resources, and imbued with the energy of a population that is one-third youth. It is only fitting that such potential is galvanised to future-proof ASEAN's vision, with peace and prosperity at its heart.

Beyond geopolitical concerns, there is a broader discussion on how ASEAN should adapt to rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, digitalisation, connectivity, trade and supply chain resilience, climate risks as well as the need to better protect fundamental human rights and freedom.

These conversations have culminated in the form of ASEAN Community Vision 2045 (ACV2045), a forward-looking aspiration for the next two decades. Bringing it across the finish line is monumental as it represents the bloc’s commitment to stay united and focused in realising its single-market ambition.

The adoption of the ACV2045 at the 46th ASEAN Summit (May 26-27) is therefore expected to be one of the hallmarks of Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship. Consistent with ASEAN pillars, the ACV2045 will serve as a roadmap addressing ASEAN’s developmental agenda across the political-security, economy, social-cultural and institutional strengthening dimensions. It is envisioned that the ACV2045 would paint a clearer picture on where ASEAN stands against existing challenges and future megatrends.

This initiative is not Malaysia’s first-time spearheading region-wide visions, having previously shaped both ASEAN Vision 2020 and ASEAN Community Vision 2025. However, ACV2045 uniquely represents a collective and inclusive approach. Throughout this effort, Malaysia has played a central role as the “Permanent Shepherd” and current ASEAN Chair – which is lauded not only for its capacity to deliver, but also its ability to remain neutral, which is key to building trust in multilateral negotiations.

Since as early as 2022, extensive consultations have occurred, incorporating perspectives from each member state, various ministries, industry stakeholders, non-governmental organisations, and civil society groups. Beyond introducing new policy guidelines, there is now greater emphasis on enhancing the monitoring and evaluation capabilities of the ASEAN Secretariat and its member states, along with promoting better cross-sectoral coordination.

True to a whole-of-ASEAN approach, the ACV2045 also reflects a commitment both in process and substance with the co-chairing oversight of Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The collective leadership demonstrated has been nothing short of productive, as reflected in key documents such as the Ha Noi Declaration on the ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision, the ASEAN Leaders’ Statement on the ASEAN Connectivity Post-2025 Agenda (2022) and on the ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision (2023), as well as the ASEAN Leaders’ Declaration on the Development of the Strategic Plans to Implement the ACV2045 (2024).

It then begs the question if ACV2045 can provide the necessary mandate to resolve some of ASEAN’s most pressing matters? While a valid concern, ACV2045 should not be viewed as a legally binding document but rather an aspirational framework designed to instill collective awareness among member states. Far from imposing, the objective is to encourage an organic implementation of ACV2045 at community, developmental, and political levels across the ASEAN region. It is also worth noting that ACV2045’s aspirations are not set in stone but subject to periodic reviews.

Without delving into the fine details, the ACV2045 is a point of reference that not only prescribes mutual principles, but a commitment to a set of strategy, action items and timeline. The drafters would agree that the first step toward achieving peace, stability, and a rules-based international order is to agree on the common values and outlook of living as one community. Even in difficult circumstances, the conscience among member states throughout the consultations is clear to support the principles espoused by ACV2045 before we can progress.

With less than a week remaining before ACV2045’s adoption and public release, the scrutiny of its contents will undoubtedly vary based on one’s depth and perspective. All said, the outgoing mood is hopeful that this time around, ACV2045 can retain momentum to guide policy developments through the diverse realities of ASEAN’s ten member states.

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Hafidzi Razali is a founder and CEO of Strategic Counsel (stcounsel.com), a public affairs, policy advisory and strategic communications firm with network presence in Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Jakarta. He is a Fulbright scholar and Oxford Policy fellow.