The South China Sea situation has grown increasingly complex, with regional actors adopting evolving strategies. Under President Prabowo, Indonesia has taken a more assertive stance, particularly around the North Natuna Sea, responding strongly to Chinese Coast Guard intrusions compared to the previous Jokowi administration. Similarly, tensions between China and the Philippines have escalated, with incidents like the August 2024 collisions near Sabina Shoal highlighting the risk of conflict in the region. Malaysia too has faced repeated Chinese encroachments into its EEZ, particularly in oil and gas-rich areas, raising significant concerns. The presence of Chinese vessels, including the large Coast Guard vessel CCG 5901 in June 2024, exemplifies China's assertiveness. Incidents like the leak of a diplomatic note warning against oil exploration and the 2021 PLA jet incursions near Sarawak have also fueled public concern domestically. These developments highlight the need for a new, more effective approach to managing the South China Sea issue.
Currently, Malaysia has established a bilateral maritime dialogue on the South China Sea with China, which is beyond the ordinary. As the 2025 ASEAN chair, Malaysia is ambitious on its trajectory for the early conclusion of the Code of Conduct (CoC) negotiations. However, the staggering challenge is to stake ASEAN centrality in mitigating risks of escalation amid the extra-regional powers and assertive behaviour in the South China Sea.
Public opinion, particularly in the age of social media, on China-related issues adds additional complexity and scrutiny for Malaysian policymakers. If left unchecked, excessive sentiment could strain bilateral relations with China unnecessarily. However, the growing awareness among the public also reflects an understanding of national interest and sovereignty. In a democratic country like Malaysia, where foreign policy is gradually driven by domestic imperatives, public sentiment is an essential factor. Parliamentary sessions have also allowed MPs to raise concerns about safeguarding Malaysia's EEZ, highlighting the need for a cohesive strategy.
One of the key issues for the government has been a lack of effective communication to narrate its stance regarding the South China Sea. While Malaysia’s action is consistently solid, the inability to articulate government positions to the public is worrying. For example, in 2023 following Anwar's state visit to China, there was a lack of clarity in his comments which have contributed to this perception. And in 2021 when the PLA jet incursion incident happened, different statements made by the Royal Malaysian Air Force and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that this was a long unresolved issue. However, Anwar's recent firm statement that Malaysia will continue developing the Kasawari gas field despite Beijing's objections is a promising sign of the decisiveness needed in Malaysian foreign policy. Wielding a more assertive stance has recently worked positively for Indonesia, something that Malaysia might consider in the future when the red lines are crossed.
For Malaysia, framing public interest and sovereignty as unified priorities is essential in managing the South China Sea effectively. To address these challenges, a few things must be considered.
Firstly, Malaysia should leverage the heightened public awareness of the South China Sea issue to rally the public behind national interests and sovereignty. Malaysia must emphasize the importance of East Malaysia's capacity and capability to defend the EEZ. Strategic communication must be improved to articulate government positions more effectively to the public. The Anwar administration has, at times, struggled to clearly define Malaysia's position on the South China Sea, and in some instances, officials have downplayed tensions involving Chinese naval vessels. While the desire to avoid larger repercussions is understandable, the era of social media demands a better and more sophisticated narrative rather than reactive firefighting. Being honest and transparent will be crucial to restore public trust when managing the SCS issue.
Secondly, with the stable political landscape, this is the right time for Malaysia to consolidate national efforts in educating the public and empowering civil servants about the importance of the South China Sea. A comprehensive whole-of-government, whole-of-society (WoGoS) approach should be employed to shape public understanding of the dynamics of the South China Sea. This way, when provocative actions occur, the public can provide informed support and morale needed for Malaysia to stake its claim in the SCS. The strong rally by the people will strengthen Malaysia’s South China Sea strategy. The WoGos must be implemented beyond rhetoric and intellectual capital should form the cornerstone of Malaysia’s national strategy in the South China Sea.
Putrajaya must capitalize on the heightened public interest in the South China Sea by adopting a proactive, rather than reactive, approach. A WoGoS strategy is essential—ensuring that both public and private entities are well-informed and prepared to respond to public queries. In an age of democratized information, transparency is vital. Through the Malaysian Defence White Paper, Malaysia defines itself as a maritime nation and the need for the WoGoS to enhance internal resilience. It is therefore the government's duty to inform the public about the strategic importance of the South China Sea for safeguarding sovereignty and contributing to nation-building efforts.
With Sabah and Sarawak gradually advancing in their governance capabilities, empowering East Malaysia is crucial for defending national interests in areas where incursions challenge economic security. Meanwhile, Sabah and Sarawak must recognize that geopolitical turbulence and assertive behaviour in the South China Sea impact the entire country - East Malaysia included. The establishment of a new naval base in Bintulu is a step in the right direction, but further spillover efforts are needed to enhance Sabah and Sarawak's capability building as a whole.
Thirdly, fostering multilayered national partnerships is key. Given Malaysia's extensive interests in the South China Sea, collaboration between the public and private sectors, along with coordination between federal and state levels, would reinforce Malaysia’s South China Sea strategy. The robust collaboration between public-private and federal-state levels must be manifested in areas such as asset financing, capacity building, and R&D. Such an approach would support Malaysia’s enforcement agencies, universities, fisheries, and other stakeholders, ensuring cross-sector alignment and fostering an overarching strategy.
While Malaysia's commitment to finalizing the CoC during its ASEAN chairmanship is commendable, Putrajaya must also acknowledge the limitations of what can be realistically achieved within a one-year timeframe. Relying solely on a successful CoC conclusion may not be the wisest course of action. This is especially so when certain countries snub ICJ rulings and violate UNCLOS despite being the signatories.
As Malaysia assumes the 2025 ASEAN chairmanship, it is essential to maintain a united and consistent stance on the South China Sea, while navigating security and economic risks. A unified front across government and society is vital to ensure the Anwar administration’s policies reflect national interests.
Additionally, educating the public about the significance of the South China Sea is crucial for national security, economic prosperity, and future growth. By fostering understanding among citizens, the private sector, and government, Putrajaya can build an informed society that actively supports safeguarding national sovereignty — enabling the nation to confidently navigate the complexities of the South China Sea.
Fikry A. Rahman is the Head of Foreign Affairs, Bait Al Amanah and Vasey Fellow, Pacific Forum
Karisma Putera Abd Rahman is the Senior Analyst, Foreign Affairs at Bait Al Amanah
** The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of Astro AWANI.
