US import dependence on EU on the rise, outpacing China, study finds

BERLIN: The United States relies more heavily on imports from the European Union than commonly assumed, with the bloc surpassing China in both total value and the number of goods, according to a study from Germany's IW economic institute.

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The US now heavily depends on over 3,100 EU product groups, up from 2,600 in 2010, with import value reaching US$287 billion.
EU goods like chemicals and machinery are hard to replace, giving the bloc leverage in trade negotiations with Washington.
As US reliance on China drops, the EU could consider export restrictions if tariff tensions escalate.

That dependence has grown significantly over the past 15 years, with the number of product groups in which at least 50% of imports came from the EU rising to over 3,100 last year, from more than 2,600 in 2010, according to IW.

The findings suggest EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could have had a stronger hand in tariff talks with Washington that led to a baseline rate of 15% on most EU goods, it said.

The total import value of those goods - which include chemical products, electrical goods machinery and equipment - reached $287 billion, nearly 2.5 times more than in 2010.

By comparison, China last year accounted for 2,925 of those product groups, with a total value of $247 billion.

U.S. dependence on China has decreased significantly over time in the course of an obvious de-risking process, said IW.

EU products with consistently high import shares are likely to be difficult to replace in the short term, a factor the bloc should keep in mind if trade tensions escalate, said IW.

As a last resort, the EU could target goods critical to the U.S. economy for export restrictions, the institute said.

While trade data alone cannot fully capture how essential these goods are to U.S. buyers, the study "can be used to make it clear to the Americans that if they continue to raise tariffs, they will be shooting themselves in the foot", said co-author Samina Sultan.