AI Brief
- Jokowi started his presidency with a focus on reforms but towards the end of his second term, started to shift to consolidate his power and family legacy.
- Jokowi backed Prabowo Subianto, raising authoritarianism concerns.
- Critics of the incoming Indonesian administration fear a return to Suharto-era politics.
At the time Jokowi - as the president is known - symbolised democracy and change, embodying the hope of a better, cleaner Indonesia.
After two terms and a decade in power, he has left an indelible mark on the nation of 280 million, presiding over a period of strong economic growth and massive infrastructure development. But critics say his rule also has been marked by a rise in old-time patronage and dynastic politics, and the diminished integrity of courts and other state institutions.
Analysts say the trend may continue under President-elect Prabowo Subianto, a member of the old elite that ruled Indonesia before Jokowi and an ex-special forces commander who was dismissed from the military amid speculation of human rights abuses, assertions he has denied.
In this year's presidential election, Jokowi turned his back on his own party candidate and helped secure a win for Prabowo, who had chosen Jokowi's son as his vice president.
"Widodo has done a lot of damage to democratisation in recent years," said political analyst Kevin O'Rourke. "It's hard to see how the recovery can come about."
For a man once celebrated for his lack of ties to Indonesia's powerful military and civilian oligarchs, Jokowi leaves office facing accusations he has tried to change laws to benefit his family, and co-opt state bodies to control his opponents.
Spokespeople for the president's office did not respond to requests for comment. Jokowi said in July that democracy was thriving in the country, citing the holding of elections and freedom of speech.
Once a furniture manufacturer in the city of Surakarta, Jokowi rose from mayor to Jakarta governor before he was elected president in 2014, defeating Prabowo. He beat Prabowo again when he was re-elected in 2019 but then made him his defence minister.
When Jokowi steps down on Oct. 20, his legacy will importantly include leaving Indonesia in the hands of Prabowo, the former son-in-law of authoritarian ruler Suharto and the son of a former cabinet minister.
"He's brought about the empowerment of Prabowo and that's already jeopardising Indonesia's democratic institutions," said O'Rourke.
TERM LIMITS
Prabowo has in the past advocated returning to an earlier version of the constitution where the president is not directly elected by the people.
Indonesia adopted term limits after Suharto's three-decade rule, marred by corruption and nepotism, ended in 1998 amid the economic and political chaos triggered by the Asian economic crisis.
This March, Prabowo described democracy as tiring, costly and messy but he has not recently referred to reviving the old constitution.
Spokespeople for the president-elect did not respond to requests for comment.
It was with great promise that Jokowi came to power a decade ago, hailed at the time as a man capable of making real change.
And for the first term he did, said his former deputy chief of staff, Yanuar Nugroho.
"Jokowi's first period is when he really delivered what he promised," he said, including an improved national health insurance scheme, which now covers more than 90% of the population, and mammoth infrastructure development.
During the Jokowi years, Indonesia posted solid economic growth and low inflation and successfully courted foreign investors to develop its domestic mineral processing industry, notably in nickel, a key component in electric vehicle batteries.
A distinct shift came in Jokowi's second term when he consolidated power and his aides began talking about a possible constitutional change to allow him a third term, and when that went nowhere, a term extension, according to many media reports.
Neither idea bore fruit, and Jokowi eventually urged government ministers to stop talking about him staying in office.
Another worrying sign, say academics and critics, is how the Jokowi administration has used institutions such as courts, the anti-corruption body and the attorney general's office for political gain. The president's office did not respond to a request for comment.
COURT RULING
The critics say the president's supporters have deployed threats of corruption charges to keep opponents in line, including rival party figures and government critics. The sudden resignation of Golkar party chief Airlangga Hartarto in August and his replacement by a Jokowi loyalist was among the cases where legal threats were deployed for political gain, media reports said.
Airlangga declined comment. Jokowi's office said his decision to resign had nothing to do with the president.
"What we've seen is the president growing confident because he's learned that he can actually get away with it," said Sana Jaffrey, a research fellow at the Australian National University (ANU).
The integrity of the judiciary came into sharp focus last October when the constitutional court - at the time headed by Jokowi's brother-in-law - issued a ruling that allowed the president's elder son, 37-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to successfully run for vice president by changing age requirements.
Protests erupted this August, after parliament proposed more election changes that would have allowed Jokowi's younger son Kaesang to run in regional elections in November. Lawmakers then abandoned the plan.
"It's as if he erased all the good things that he has done," said his former staffer Yanuar, who joined the protests.
Still, Jokowi remains immensely popular. His approval rating fell to its lowest level this year, a poll by Indikator Politik Indonesia showed last week, with the outgoing leader retaining 75% support, higher than the average over his two terms in office.
Reflecting on his decade, ANU's Jaffrey said Jokowi has taken Indonesia right to the edge, but not yet into "competitive authoritarianism".
"In a system like that, all the structures of democracy exist... but none of them are meaningful", she said.
That means Prabowo will inherit a country more powerful and less accountable than it has been since 1998, when its reform period began, she said.
O'Rourke, the analyst, said: "A return to Suharto-era political structures is likely. Prabowo has made clear that he will brook very little dissent."
