South Korea plunged into recession in the second quarter in its worst economic decline in more than two decades as the coronavirus pandemic battered exports and social distancing curbs paralysed factories.
Asia's fourth-largest economy shrank by a seasonally adjusted 3.3% in the June quarter from three months earlier, the Bank of Korea said on Thursday. That is the sharpest contraction since the first quarter of 1998 and steeper than a 2.3% fall seen in a Reuters poll.
South Korea joins Japan, Thailand and Singapore in technical recession, defined as two straight quarters of decline, as the pandemic slams Asia's trade-reliant economies.
However, analysts and policymakers are looking at the prospect of a recovery that would be faster than those of its regional peers.
"It's possible for us to see China-style rebound in the third quarter as the pandemic slows and activity in overseas production, schools and hospitals resume," South Korean finance minister finance minister Hong Nam-ki said after the data was released, referring to China's return to growth in the second-quarter after a deep slump earlier in the year.
South Korea's gross domestic product fell 2.9% in year-on-year terms, the biggest fall since the fourth quarter of 1998 and worse than a 2.0% decline seen in the poll.
Exports, which account for nearly 40% of the economy, were the biggest drag on growth, dropping by 16.6% on-quarter to mark the worst reading since 1963.
South Korea's POSCO, the world's fifth-biggest steelmaker, reported an 84.3% drop in operating profit in the second quarter as global demand for steel plummeted.
On Thursday, the world's No. 2 memory chip maker SK Hynix warned of uncertainty in the second half, even as its second-quarter operating profit tripled.
"While consumer spending should gradually recover, the threat from the virus is unlikely to fade entirely and some social distancing will probably have to remain in place," Capital Economics Asia Economist Alex Holmes said.
"Meanwhile, global demand is only likely to recover slowly which will weigh on the export recovery."
South Korea has reported almost 14,000 infections and around 300 deaths since the start of the outbreak, relatively low numbers by global standards although the economic disruptions have been significant.
Construction investment fell 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, while capital investment declined 2.9%.
Output from manufacturing and the service sector fell by 9.0%, and 1.1%, respectively.
One saving grace has been a 1.4% gain in private consumption from three months earlier, thanks to government cash handouts that boosted spending on restaurants, clothes and leisure activities.
The government has rolled out about 277 trillion won ($231 billion) worth of stimulus to fight the economic fallout from the pandemic so far. However, policymakers have little control over the global demand for the country's exports, which includes everything from memory chips to cars to petrochemical products.
"The worst seems to be over. The base effect and fiscal injection from supplementary budget will improve investment," said Park Sang-hyun, an analyst at HI Investment & Securities.
For the whole of 2020, analysts see the economy declining by a median 0.4%, which would be the first full-year contraction since 1998. But the International Monetary Fund estimates an even bigger 2.1% contraction.
Last week, the BOK's governor said a downward revision from its previous projection of a 0.2% decline for 2020 was inevitable.
Reuters
Thu Jul 23 2020
Workers walk into a ship which is currently under construction at Hyundai Heavy Industries' Shipyard in Ulsan, South Korea, May 13, 2015 - REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo
Is climate change making tropical storms more frequent? Scientists say it's unclear
Scientists say it remains unclear how much climate change is reshaping the storm season.
Samples obtained by Chinese spacecraft show moon's ancient volcanism
The material provides new insight into the moon's geological history including the oldest evidence to date of lunar volcanism.
The scamdemic targeting the young and vulnerable
Teenagers and young adults are becoming prime targets for a new wave of cyber scams, a trend raising alarm bells across Southeast Asia.
Japanese manicurist takes on plastic pollution, one nail at a time
Before global leaders address plastic pollution, a Japanese manicurist highlights the issue by incorporating it into her nail designs.
What to watch for ahead of US presidential inauguration
Here's a timeline of events between now and inauguration day.
The battle to reduce road deaths
In Malaysia, over half a million road accidents have been recorded so far this year.
Pro-Palestinian NGOs seek court order to stop Dutch arms exports to Israel
The Dutch state, as a signatory to the 1948 Genocide Convention, has a duty to take all reasonable measures at its disposal to prevent genocide.
How quickly can Trump's Musk-led efficiency panel slash US regulations?
Moves by Trump and his appointees to eliminate existing rules will be met with legal challenges, as many progressive groups and Democratic officials have made clear.
2TM: Consultations on PTPTN loans, admission to IPTA at MOHE booth
Consultations on PTPTN loans and admission to IPTA are among services provided at the Higher Education Ministry booth.
Kampung Tanjung Kala residents affected by flooded bridge every time it rains heavily
Almost 200 residents from 60 homes in Kampung Tanjung Kala have ended up stuck when their 200-metre (m) long concrete bridge flooded.
COP29 climate summit draft proposes rich countries pay $250 billion per year
The draft finance deal criticised by both developed and developing nations.
Bomb squad sent to London's Gatwick Airport after terminal evacuation
This was following the discovery of a suspected prohibited item in luggage.
Kelantan urges caution amidst northeast monsoon rains
Kelantan has reminded the public in the state to refrain from outdoor activities with the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon season.
Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern receives UN leadership award
Former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern was given a global leadership award by the United Nations Foundation.
ICC'S arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant an apt decision - PM
The decision of the ICC to issue arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant is apt, said Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
KTMB provides two additional ETS trains for Christmas, school holidays
KTMB will provide two additional ETS trains for the KL Sentral-Padang Besar route and return trips in conjunction with the holidays.
BNM'S international reserves rise to USD118 bil as at Nov 15, 2024
Malaysia's international reserves rose to US$118.0 billion as at Nov 15, 2024, up from US$117.6 billion on Oct 30, 2024.
Findings by dark energy researchers back Einstein's conception of gravity
The findings announced are part of a years-long study of the history of the cosmos focusing upon dark energy.
NRES responds to Rimbawatch press release on COP29
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability (NRES) wishes to offer the following clarifications to the issues raised.
Online Safety Bill and Anti-Cyberbullying Laws must carefully balance rights and protections
The Online Safety Advocacy Group (OSAG) stands united with people in Malaysia in the fight against serious online harms.