Taiwan Elections: What's at stake and why the HK protests could be a deciding factor

Twenty-three million Taiwanese will head to the polls this Saturday in a presidential election that would prove decisive on the self-governing island’s relationship with China in the next four years.

At the time of writing, incumbent president President Tsai Ing-wen seemed a shoo-in.

Taiwan’s public opinion is in favour of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate whose defiant stance towards China has burnished her credentials, particularly in light with the Hong Kong protests which has sparked fear in Taiwan over growing assertiveness of authoritarian Beijing.

The results of a recent media poll in Taiwan shows Tsai with leading with a comfortable margin, garnering 45 percent of votes from respondents to 29 percent for opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Han Kuo-yu. Han’s party favour closer ties with Beijing.

Here’s what you need to know about the contenders in the January 11 polls:

TSAI-ING WEN, TAIWAN PRESIDENT, DPP CANDIDATE

• Made history in 2016 as the first female president in Taiwan
  
• The 63-year old was a former law professor and trade negotiator before heading DPP
  
• In her first term, Tsai introduced reforms in the labour and pension systems - both of which were unpopular
  
• Taiwan became the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage in May 2019. Tsai campaigned on marriage equality
  
• DPP suffered its biggest electoral defeat in Taiwan’s 2018 local elections, losing its traditional stronghold Kaohsiung for the first time in 20 years. Tsai resigned as party chairwoman.
  
• She performed poorly in opinion polls last year but enjoyed a turnaround, boosted by the extradition bill protests that broke out in Hong Kong and fear over Beijing’s increasing assertiveness
  
• Tsai rejected China’s suggestion of a “one country, two systems” to unify the island, saying the political formula has failed in Hong Kong
  
• Riding the shift in public opinion, Tsai is seen as defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty in the face of rising threat from Beijing

HAN KUO-YU, KMT CANDIDATE

• Han is the candidate of the KMT, which ruled over the island for 55 years before DPP government came to power in 2000
  
• Rose from political obscurity to become mayor of DPP-stronghold Kaohsiung after winning the seat in the 2018 local elections
  
• Promises to forge closer economic ties with China
  
• Though Han has also rejected “one country, two systems”
  
• Widely seen as a grass-root, populist candidate with strong presence on social media. Han has been described as Taiwan's Donald Trump
  
• Han vows to bring in more trade with China if elected as president (China is Taiwan’s top trading partner with trade totalling USD226 billion in 2018.
• Other promise Han made if elected president: fund one year of free study abroad for all Taiwanese students and double the number of tourists within the next eight years, particularly through Chinese tourist arrivals (KMT claims arrivals from China have decreased during Tsai’s term in office).
  

JAMES SOONG, PFP CANDIDATE

• 77-year-old Soong is chairman the small People First Party
  
• Former senior KMT politician
  
• This is the fifth time he has stood for president or vice president
  
• Latest media poll numbers suggest Soong is at a distant third, garnering only 7 percent (DPP: 45%, KMT: 29% Undecided: 19%)